July 17, 2014

CSSRR Economics/Sociology–July 17, 2014

Pew Social and Demographic Trends Report: “In Post-Recession Era, Young Adults Drive Continuing Rise in Multi-Generational Living,” by Richard Fry and Jeffrey S. Passel (July 2014, .pdf and HTML format, 21p.).


CSSRR Sociology–July 17, 2014

Filed under: S. NGO and Other Countries,Sociology — admin @ 3:51 pm


Office for National Statistics Statistical Bulletin: “Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending March 2014,” (July 2014, .pdf and HTML format, 132p.).


CSSRR Sociology–July 17, 2014

Filed under: S. Websites of Interest,Sociology — admin @ 3:50 pm

Center for Policy Research (Maxwll School, Syracuse University) Working Paper: “Treatment Effects with Unobserved Heterogeneity: A Set Identification Approach,” by Sung Jae Jun, Yoonseok Lee and Youngki Shin (Working Paper No. 169, July 2014, .pdf format, 29p.).


We propose the sharp identifiable bounds of the distribution functions of potential outcomes using a panel with fixed T. We allow for the possibility that the statistical randomization of treatment assignments is not achieved until unobserved heterogeneity is properly controlled for. We use certain stationarity assumptions to obtain the bounds. Dynamics in the treatment decisions is allowed as long as the stationarity assumptions are satisfied. In particular, we present an example where our assumptions are satisfied and the treatment decision of the present time may depend on the treatments and the observed outcomes of the past. As an empirical illustration we study the effect of smoking during pregnancy on infant birth weights. We found that for the group of switchers the birth weight with smoking is first order stochastically dominated by that with non-smoking.


CSSRR Economics/Health–July 17, 2014

Filed under: E. Working Papers,Economics,H. Working Papers,Health — admin @ 3:49 pm

Centre d’Etudes de Populations, de Pauvrete et de Politiques Socio-Economiques / International Network for Studies in Technology, Environment, Alternatives, Development [Differdange, Luxembourg] Working Paper: “Do the poor benefit less from informal risk-sharing? Risk externalities and moral hazard in decentralized insurance arrangements,” by Matthieu Delpierre, Bertrand Verheyden, and Stephanie Weynants (Working Paper No. 2014-08, June 2014, .pdf format, 32p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:



Program on the Global Demography of Aging [Harvard University] Working Paper:

A. “Does Urbanization Help Poverty Reduction in Rural Areas? Evidence from Vietnam,” by Mohamed Arouri, Adel Ben Youssef, Cuong Nguyen-Viet and Agnes Soucat (PDGA Working Paper No. 115, July 2014, .pdf format, p.).


Urbanization and poverty have a two-way relationship. Using fixed-effects regression and panel data from household surveys, we estimate the effect of urbanization on welfare and poverty of rural households in Vietnam. We find that urbanization tends to increase landlessness of rural households and to reduce their farm income. However, urbanization helps rural households increase their wages and non-farm incomes. As a result, total income and consumption expenditure of rural households tend to be increased with urbanization. Then we find that urbanization also helps rural households decrease the expenditure poverty rate, albeit at a small magnitude.


B. “Longitudinal Aging Study in India: Biomarker Data Documentation,” by David E. Bloom, Perry Hu, P. Arokiasamy, Arun Risbud, T.V. Sekher, S.K. Mohanty, Varsha Kale, Jennifer O’Brien, Sandy Chien, and Jinkook Lee (PDGA Working Paper No. 114, 2014, .pdf format, 63p.). Note: There is no abstract for this paper.


C. “A Flow Measure of Missing Women by Age and Disease,” by Stephan Klasen and Sebastian Vollmer (PDGA Working Paper No. 113, May 2014, .pdf format, 27p.).


The existing literature on ‘missing women’ suggests that the problem is mostly concentrated in India and China, and mostly related to sex-selective abortions and neglect of female children. In a recent paper in the Review of Economic Studies, Anderson and Ray (AR) develop a new ‘flow’ measure of missing women in developing countries by comparing actual age-sex-specific mortality rates with ‘expected’ ones. Contrary to the existing literature on missing women, they, and the World Bank which subsequently followed this method, find that gender bias in mortality is much larger than previously found (4-5 million excess female deaths per year), is as severe among adults as it is among children in India, is larger in Sub-Saharan Africa than in China and India, and existed on a large scale in the US around 1900. We show that the data for Sub-Saharan Africa used by AR are generated by simulations in ways that deliver the findings on Africa (and the US in 1900) by construction. We also show that the findings are entirely dependent on a highly implausible reference standard from rich countries that is inappropriately applied to settings in developing countries; the attempt to control for differences in the disease environment does not correct for this problem and fails basic plausibility checks. When a more appropriate reference standard is used, most of the new findings of AR disappear, the extent of gender bias in mortality is much smaller (though still substantial).


CSSRR Economics–July 17, 2014

Filed under: E. US Govt. Pub,Economics — admin @ 3:48 pm

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri) Periodical: Economic Indicators, June 2014 (July 2014, .pdf format, 38p.).



US Council of Economic Advisers Report: “The Labor Force Participation Rate Since 2007: Causes And Policy Implications,” (July 2014, .pdf format, 53p.).


CSSRR Economics–July 17, 2014

Filed under: E. NGO and Other Countries,Economics — admin @ 3:29 pm

International Monetary Fund Country Reports: The latest Country Reports (.pdf format) (14/195 to 14/212).



CSSRR Economics–July 17, 2014

Filed under: E. Working Papers,Economics — admin @ 3:28 pm

Centro De Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros [Madrid, Spain] Working Papers:

A. “Educate to Lead? The Local Political Economy Effects of School Construction in Indonesia,” by Monica Martinez-Bravo (Working Paper No. 1404, July 2014, .pdf format, 58p.).


The extension of mass education not only affects the level of education of the labor force, but also raises the average education of local politicians. This paper investigates the impact of a large program of school construction in Indonesia on local governance and public good provision. By using a panel dataset of 10,000 villages and exploiting the staggered timing of local elections, I isolate the effects driven by changes in local governance. The results suggest that the school construction program led to important increases in the provision of public goods. Furthermore, the results are heterogeneous across villages: public goods experienced stronger increases in villages where there was a particular demand for that type of public good. I provide evidence that the results are driven by the increase in the level of education of the village head, which suggests that the level of human capital of local politicians is a key ingredient of public good provision in developing countries.


B. “Financial frictions, product quality, and international trade,” by Rosario Crino and Laura Ogliari (Working Paper No. 1403, June 2014, .pdf format, 46p.).


Product quality plays a key role in economics, but differs markedly across countries and industries. What are the determinants and implications of this pattern? In this paper, we test an explanation for the large heterogeneity in product quality that rests on the interplay between cross-country differences in financial frictions and cross-industry differences in financial vulnerability. To guide the empirical analysis, we rely on a simple trade model featuring heterogeneous firms, endogenous output quality, country heterogeneity in financial frictions, and industry heterogeneity in financial vulnerability. The model clearly illustrates how the interaction of financial frictions and financial vulnerability shapes the geographical and sectoral variation in product quality. We estimate the model using a novel data set, which contains proxies for export quality, financial development, and financial vulnerability for virtually all manufacturing industries and countries in the world, over a period that spans the last three decades. Our results show that the interplay between financial frictions and financial vulnerability is a main driver of the observed variation in product quality across countries and industries. The model also suggests that quality adjustments are an important mechanism through which financial development affects international trade and shapes countries’ export structure. We find strong evidence consistent with this implication.


C. “Why did sponsor banks rescue their sivs? A signaling model of rescues,” by Anatoli Segura (Working Paper No. 1402, May 2014, .pdf format, 47p.).


At the beginning of the past financial crisis sponsoring banks rescued their structured investment vehicles (SIVs) despite of lack of contractual obligation to do so. I show that this outcome may arise as the equilibrium of a signaling game between banks and their debt investors when a negative shock affects the correlated asset returns of a fraction of banks and their sponsored vehicles. The rescue is interpreted as a good signal and reduces the refinancing costs of the sponsoring bank. If banks’ leverage is high or the negative shock is sizable enough, the equilibrium is a pooling one in which all banks rescue. When the aggregate financial sector is close to insolvency, banks’ expected net worth would increase if rescues were banned. The model can be extended to discuss the circumstances in which all banks collapse after rescuing their vehicles.



European Commission:

Economic and Financial Affairs Working Papers:

A. “A Decade of Labour Market Reforms in the EU: Insights from the LABREF database,” by Alessandro Turrini, Gabor Koltay, Fabiana Pierini, Clarisse Goffard and Aron Kiss (No. 522, July 2014, .pdf format, 52p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:


B. “Liberalised Capital Accounts and Volatility of Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Rates,” by Bogdan Bogdanov (No. 521, July 2014, .pdf format, 36p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:


C. “The “imbalanced balance” and its unravelling: current accounts and bilateral financial flows in the euro area,” by Alexandr Hobza and Stefan Zeugner (No. 520, July 2014, .pdf format, 32p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:



United Nations:

Department of Economic and Social Affairs Working Paper: “Recipients and Contributors: Middle income countries and the future of development cooperation,” by Jose Antonio Alonso, Jonathan Glennie and Andy Sumner (DWP/135, July 2014, .pdf format, 24p.).


The new role that middle-income countries (MICs) play in the global landscape obliges international community to review the configuration of the development cooperation system. On the one hand, MICs still face considerable structural deficits that affect their process of development; on the other, international community needs MICs to participate more intensively in the international agenda. Development cooperation can support both purposes, although for that to happen, substantial changes are required in traditional approaches and procedures of current international aid. This paper analyses these subjects with the objective of helping decision-makers come to good decisions



Working Papers: New Economic Papers (NEP)-ALL. The latest list of New Economic Papers is dated July 5, 2014.


CSSRR Economics–July 17, 2014

Filed under: E. Working Papers,Economics — admin @ 3:25 pm

Federal Reserve Banks:

Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economic Discussion Series:


NEW: 2014-47 “OccBin: A Toolkit for Solving Dynamic Models With Occasionally Binding Constraints Easily,” by Luca Guerrieri and Matteo Iacoviello.


District 2: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York):


NEW: No. 680 “Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting during the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences,” by Lucia Alessi, Eric Ghysels, Luca Onorante, Richard Peach, and Simon Potter.


District 5: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (Virginia):


NEW: 14-14 “A Simple General Equilibrium Model of Large Excess Reserves,” by Huberto M. Ennis.


District 8: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri):


NEW: Working Paper 2014-015A “The Cost of Business Cycles with Heterogeneous Trading Technologies,” by YiLi Chien.

Working Paper 2014-014A “Implications of Heterogeneity in Preferences, Beliefs and Asset Trading Technologies for the Macroeconomy,” by YiLi Chien, Harold L. Cole, and Hanno Lustig.

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