April 12, 2017

CSSRR Economics–April 12, 2017

Filed under: E. Working Papers,Economics — admin @ 3:48 pm

Bank for International Settlements Working Papers:


NEW: No. 626 “Monetary policy’s rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates,” by Massimo Ferrari, Jonathan Kearns and Andreas Schrimpf.

No. 625 “Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market,” by Kathi Schlepper, Heiko Hofer, Ryan Riordan and Andreas Schrimpf.

No. 624 “Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment?” by José María Serena and Ricardo Sousa.

No. 623 “International inflation spillovers through input linkages,” by Raphael Auer, Andrei A Levchenko and Philip Saure.

No. 622 “External financing and economic activity in the euro area – why are bank loans special?” by Inaki Aldasoro and Robert Unger.

No. 621 “The dynamics of investment projects: evidence from Peru,” by Rocío Gondo and Marco Vega.

No. 620 “Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model,” by Bernabe Lopez-Martin, Julio Leal and Andre Martinez Fritscher.

No. 619 “Volatility risk premia and future commodities returns,” by Jose Renato Haas Ornelas and Roberto Baltieri Mauad.

No. 618 “Business cycles in an oil economy,” by Drago Bergholt, Vegard H. Larsen and Martin Seneca.


European Central Bank:


NEW: No. 2044 “Volatility spillovers of Federal Reserve and ECB balance sheet expansions to emerging market economies,” by Apostolos Apostolou and John Beirne.


Levy Economics Institute (Bard College) Working Paper: “Trump’s Bait and Switch: Job Creation in the Midst of Welfare State Sabotage,” by Pavlina R. Tcherneva (Working Paper No. 887, March 2017, .pdf format, 17p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:



United Nations:

International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth Working Paper: “Social policy in Brazil (2004–2014): an overview,” by Patricia Andrade de Oliveira e Silva (Working Paper No. 155, April 2017, .pdf format, 23p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:



US Bureau of Economic Analysis Working Paper: “Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement,” by Fatih Guvenen, Raymond J. Mataloni Jr., Dylan G. Rassier, and Kim J. Ruhl (WP2017-2, March 2017, .pdf format, 38p.).


Official statistics display a significant slowdown in U.S. aggregate productivity growth that begins in 2004. In this paper, we investigate a source of mismeasurement in official statistics, which arises from o shore profit shifting by multinational enterprises operating in the United States. This profit shifting causes part of the economic activity generated by these multinationals to be attributed to their foreign affiliates, leading to an understatement of measured U.S. gross domestic product. Profit-shifting activity has increased significantly since the mid-1990s, resulting in an understatement of measured U.S. aggregate productivity growth. We construct adjustments to correct for the effects of profit shifting on measured gross domestic product. The adjustments raise aggregate productivity growth rates by 0.1 percent annually for 1994-2004, 0.25 percent annually for 2004{2008, and leave productivity unchanged after 2008; Our adjustments mitigate, but do not overturn, the productivity slowdown in the official statistics. The adjustments are especially large in R&D-intensive industries, which are most likely to produce intangible assets that are easy to move across borders. The adjustments boost value added in these industries by as much as 8.0 percent annually in the mid-2000s.



Working Papers: New Economic Papers (NEP)-ALL. The latest list of New Economic Papers is dated March 26, 2017.


March 19, 2017:


March 12, 2017:


March 5, 2017:


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