Current Demographic Research Report #10, December 8, 2003.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census 2000 Brief
Department of Health and Human Services Report
National Center for Education Statistics Issue Brief
Department of Housing and Urban Development Report
Bureau of Labor Statistics Periodical, News Release
General Accounting Office Report
Bureau of Justice Statistics Fact Sheet
_Demographic Research_ Article
Canada Campaign 2000 Report
UK Health Protection Agency (HPA) Article
National Opinion Research Center [University of Chicago] Report
Urban Institute Reports
_British Medical Journal_ Articles, Book Review
Info Health Pop Reporter


Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Carolina Population Center MEASURE Evaluation Program
Bureau of Labor Statistics




Canadian Standing Senate Committee on Social Affairs, Science and Technology Report


Census Bureau School District Poverty Estimates
National Longitudinal Survey
National Bureau of Economic Research
China Data Online/China 2000 Population Census



Census 2000 Brief: "The Arab Population: 2000," by G. Patricia de la Cruz and Angela Brittingham (C2KBR-23, December 2003, .pdf format, 9p.). Note: The report is linked to from a Census Bureau news release: "Report on Arab Population Released by Census Bureau" (CB03-187, Dec. 1, 2003).

Click on " The Arab Population: 2000" for full text.

Department of Health and Human Services Report: "State-Funded Pre-Kindergarten: What the Evidence Shows" (December 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 36p.). The report is linked to from a HHS news release: "HHS Report Finds States Increasing Pre-Kindergarten Programs" (Dec. 3, 2003).

Click on "" at the bottom of the news release for link to full text. Note: .pdf link can be found at the bottom of the report. Click on "printer friendly"

National Center for Education Statistics Issue Brief: "Participation in Technology-Based Postcompulsory Education," by Lisa Hudson and Linda Shafer (NCES 2004020), November 2003, .pdf format, 3p.).


This Issue Brief examines participation in formal, post compulsory learning activities (such as college programs and courses, employer-provided training, and other coursework) in which computer technologies were used to deliver instruction. The analysis uses the 2001 Adult Education and Lifelong Learning Survey of the National Household Education Surveys Program to examine overall participation in these activities, as well as differences in the extent to which learners with various characteristics (by gender, race/ethnicity, occupation, education level, income, and locale) participate in technology-based activities.

Department of Housing and Urban Development Report: "Moving to Opportunity Interim Impacts Evaluation," by Larry Orr, Judith D. Feins, Robin Jacob, Erik Beecroft, Lisa Sanbonmatsu, Lawrence F. Katz, Jeffrey B. Liebman, and Jeffrey R. Kling (September 2003, .pdf format, 341p.).

Abstract Excerpt:

The Moving to Opportunity for Fair Housing Demonstration Interim Impacts Evaluation provides insights into what benefits can be achieved by improving the neighborhoods of poor families. The Moving to Opportunity program provided thousands of poor adults and children an opportunity to use HUD vouchers to move out of public housing in high poverty neighborhoods to lower poverty neighborhoods. Using rigorous scientific methods, this study looks at the impact these moves have had on housing, health, employment, education, mobility, welfare receipt, and delinquency.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Periodical, News Release:

A. _Monthly Labor Review_ (Vol. 126, No. 9, September 2003, .pdf format).

Note: This is a temporary address. When the next _MLR_ is released, this one, along with all others back to 1988, will be available at:

B. "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Estimates: September 2002 - September 2003" (Dec. 3, 2003).

General Accounting Office Report: "Head Start: Better Data and Processes Needed to Monitor Underenrollment" (GAO-04-17, December 2003, .pdf format, 38p.).

Note: This is a temporary address. GAO reports are always available at:

Bureau of Justice Statistics Fact Sheet: The BJS has updated its "Drugs and Crime Facts" website. The information is also available in .pdf format (76p.).

_Demographic Research_ Article: Note: _DR_ is "a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research." "Demography in a new key: A theory of population theory," by Thomas K. Burch (Vol. 9, Article 11, December 2003, .pdf format, p. 264-284).


The widespread opinion that demography is lacking in theory is based in part on a particular view of the nature of scientific theory, generally known as logical empiricism [or positivism]. A newer school of philosophy of science, the model-based view, provides a different perspective on demography, one that enhances its status as a scientific discipline. From this perspective, much of formal demography can be seen as a collection of substantive models of population dynamics [how populations and cohorts behave], in short, theoretical knowledge. And many theories in behavioural demography - often discarded as too old or too simplistic - can be seen as perfectly good scientific theory, useful for many purposes, although often in need of more rigorous statement.

Click on "Enter".

Canada Campaign 2000 Report: "Honouring Our Promises Meeting the Challenge to End Child and Family Poverty: 2003 Report Card on Child Poverty in Canada" (2003, .pdf format, 11p.).

More information about Campaign 2000:

UK Health Protection Agency (HPA) Article: "Influenza in the United Kingdom" (_CDR Weekly_ [_Communicative Diseases Report_], Vol. 13, No. 49, Dec. 4, 2003, HTML and .pdf format).

Note: This is a temporary address. When the next _CDR Weekly_ is released, this one, along with all others, will be available at:

National Opinion Research Center [University of Chicago] Report:"Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities: Summary Report 2002," by Thomas B. Hoffer, Scott Sederstrom, Lance Selfa, Vince Welch, Mary Hess, Shana Brown, Sergio Reyes, Kristy Webber, and Isabel Guzman-Barron (2003, .pdf format, 141p.). Note: Data from the Survey of Earned Doctorates was used to compile this report. Reports going back to 1997 are available at the site:

National Science Foundation News Release:

Urban Institute Reports:

A. "Unsupervised Time: Family and Child Factors Associated with Self-Care," by Sharon Vandivere, Kathryn Tout, Martha Zaslow, Julia Calkins, and Jeffrey Capizzano (Assessing the New Federalism Occasional Paper No. 71, November 2003, .pdf format, 35p.). "More than three million 6- to 12-year-old children regularly take care of themselves without adult supervision, according to the Urban Institute's 1999 National Survey of America's Families. Full-time parental employment and an increase in a child's age are related to the growth in self-care for low- and higher-income children. With both income groups, Hispanic children are less likely to be in self-care than non-Hispanic children."

Click on "Portable Document Format (PDF)" for full text.

B. "Digging the Medicare Hole Deeper," by Leonard E. Burman (November 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 2p.).

_British Medical Journal_ Articles, Book Review:

A. "Using socioeconomic evidence in clinical practice guidelines," by Rosemary Aldrich, Lynn Kemp, Jenny Stewart Williams, Elizabeth Harris, Sarah Simpson, Amanda Wilson, Katie McGill, Julie Byles, Julia Lowe, and Terri Jackson (_BMJ_ Education and Debate, Vol. 327, No. 7246, Nov. 29, 2003, HTML and .pdf format, p. 1283-1285).

B. "Perinatal mortality in rural China: retrospective cohort study," by Zhuochun Wu, Kirsi Viisainen, Ying Wang, and Elina Hemminki (_BMJ Vol. 327, No. 7247, Dec. 6, 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 4p.).

C. _Health Inequalities: Lifecourse Approaches_, by George Davey Smith, reviewed by Johan P. Mackenbach (_BMJ_ Book Review, Vol. 327, No. 7247, Dec. 6, 2003, HTML and .pdf format, p. 1352).

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 3, No. 49, Dec. 8, 2003). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research: "Education and entry into motherhood: The Czech Republic during state-socialism and the transition period (1970-1997)," by Vladimira Kantorova (WP-2003-037, November 2003, .pdf format, 29p.).


The Czech Republic presently shows one of the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in Europe. A decline in period fertility followed the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy that started in 1990. In this study, we investigate womens transition to first births, focusing on the impact of female education. We make a distinction between the effects of education attainment and time elapsed since completion of education. There are two aspects to the role of education that influenced the delay of entry into motherhood in the 1990s. First, during early adulthood women spent more time in education than their contemporaries did in the era of state socialism. Second, women entered motherhood much later after completion of education than before, which contrasts with the previous pattern of a strong immediate effect the completion of studies had on first-birth risks. The decline in first birth risks in the 1990s applies more so to women with a higher level of education than to those with a lower level. We argue that greater education differentiation of labor market opportunities and constraints brought about greater education differentiation in the timing of entry into motherhood.

Carolina Population Center MEASURE Evaluation Program:

A. "HIV and Child Mortality: Evidence from Surveillance Studies in Uganda, Tanzania and Malawi," by Basia Zaba, Milly Marston, Jessica Nakiyingi, Jimmy Whitworth, Anthony Ruberantwari, Mark Urassa, Raphaeli Issingo, Gabriel Mwaluko, Amelia Crampin, Sian Floyd, Andrew Nyondo, and Michael Bracher (WP-03-74, November 2003, .pdf format, 19p.).


The steady decline in child mortality that has been seen in most African countries in the 1960s, 70s and 80s has stalled in many countries in the 1990s, because of the AIDS epidemic. However, the census and household survey data that are generally used to produce estimates of child mortality do not enable the adverse effect of HIV on child mortality to be precisely quantified. This paper uses pooled data from three longitudinal community based studies that classified births by the mothers HIV status to calculate the excess risks of child mortality due to maternal HIV status. The excess risks of child death due to increased mortality among mothers are also estimated, and the joint effects of maternal HIV status and maternal survival are quantified using multivariate techniques in a survival analysis. The analysis shows that the excess risk of death associated with having an HIV positive mother is 3.2, and this effect lasts throughout childhood ages. The excess risk associated with a maternal death is 3.6 in the two year period centred on the mothers death, with children of both infected and uninfected mothers experiencing elevated mortality risks at this time.

B. "Determinants of Contraceptive Method Choice in Rural Tanzania Between 1991 and 1999," by Susan Chen and David K. Guilkey (WP-03-75, December 2003, .pdf format, 44p.).


Four pooled Demographic and Health survey data sets are used to examine the determinants of contraceptive method choice in rural Tanzania in the period 1991 to 1999. The individual data is linked to facility surveys conducted in the same communities so that the impact of Tanzania's family planning program can be examined. The very large sample size allows us to disaggregate method choice into five categories, including a separate category for condoms, even though this is a very low prevalence country. In addition, we are able to examine the impact of pharmacies. The focus of the paper is an examination of the impact on method choice of the three major components of Tanzania's program: logistical support, trained providers, and communications programs. The statistical methods employed correct for the potential endogeneity of message recall by joint estimation of an equation explaining contraceptive method choice and equations explaining family planning message recall and recall of having heard a radio drama. Simulations are used to quantify the impact of the important policy variables.

For either paper, click on "To complete working paper" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

Bureau of Labor Statistics: "Minimum Wages, Employment and Monopsonistic Competition," by V. Bhasker and Ted To (Working Paper 369, December 2003, .pdf format, 13p.).


We set out a model of monopsonistic competition, where each employer competes equally with every other employer. The employment effects of minimum wages depend on the degree of distortion in the labor market. If fixed costs per firm are high then the labor market is relatively non-competitive and minimum wages increase employment. Conversely, low fixed costs make for a more competitive labor market where minimum wages reduce employment. This contrasts with the results of a Salop style model with localized employer competition where a minimum wage unambiguously raises employment. We also find that the welfare effect of a small minimum wage is unambiguously positive.

Click on "PDF" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

B. click on "browse by publication"
C. Click the "fax/ariel" radio button, type the Journal Name in the "by words in the title" search box and click "search".
D. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

Population Studies (Vol. 57, No. 3, 2003).

Public Health Reports (Vol. 118, No. 6, 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Ethnicity and Disease (Vol. 13, No. 4, 2003).

Sociological Methods and Research (Vol. 32, No. 2, 2003).

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Canadian Standing Senate Committee on Social Affairs, Science and Technology Report: "Reforming Health Protection and Promotion in Canada: Time to Act" (November 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 67p.).

Scroll to bottom of page and click on "Committee report is available in PDF format" for .pdf full text.

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Census Bureau School District Poverty Estimates: The Census Bureau has released "Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates: School District Estimates" for the year 2000. Estimates are available in HTML and tab delimited ASCII format. The ASCII format data is available from an FTP directory, and also includes one file with all US school districts, as well as individual state files. The HTML format tables only include state tables. Documentation and variable locations are also available. Other school district poverty files going back to 1995 are available at the site.

National Longitudinal Survey: The Center for Human Resource Research at Ohio State University has made available in electronic format (.pdf) 1966-90 NLS Older men's questionnaires, as well as the codebook supplement. In addition, flow charts for the Mature Women survey (W08), Younger Women survey (G08), and Young Men survey (B08) have also been made available electronically.

Scroll to or "find in page" "Set of Questionnaires - Older Men" (without the quotes). For the flow charts scroll to or "find in page" "W08", "G08", or "B08)" (without the quotes).

National Bureau of Economic Research: NBER has added the March 2003 Current Population Survey to its growing collection of freely distributed CPS data files. Files are in .Z compressed ASCII format with .pdf and text documentation.

NBER also provides SAS, SPSS, and Stata programs for reading selected files, including the above mentioned one, at:

China Data Online/China 2000 Population Census: The National Bureau of Statistics of China, the All China Marketing Research Co. Ltd., and the University of Michigan China Data Center have combined to provide a selected number of datasets from the 2000 China Census, and interactive access to various Chinese social and economic data. Both are licensed, fee based services, the former available on CD-ROM, the latter via interactive data extraction software. For more information see:

2000 China Census:

Interactive China Social and Economic Data:

or contact via email:

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706