Current Demographic Research Report #12, December 19, 2003.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census 2000 Brief, News Release
National Center for Health Statistics Reports
Centers for Disease Control New Periodical
Department of Health and Human Services News Release
National Center for Education Statistics Reports
Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Reports,
FBI Report
Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, Handbook Chapter Update, News Releases
World Health Organization Compendium, Surveillance Summary
World Bank Periodical Special Report
Comision Economica para America Latina y el Carib (CEPAL) Report
Kaiser Family Foundation Health Poll Report, Issue Brief
Urban Institute Reports
National Longitudinal Study Bibliography Updates
Johns Hopkins Info Health Pop Reporter


Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research [Rostock, Germany]
National Bureau of Economic Research
Kennedy School of Government [Harvard University]
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) [Laxenburg, Austria]
Overseas Development Institute [London, UK]
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [Bonn, Germany]


Other Journals


National Institutes of Health
Population Reference Bureau


National Center for Health Statistics


London School of Economics
Centers for Disease Control


National Center for Health Statistics
National Center for Education Statistics
Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research



Census 2000 Brief, News Release:

A. "The Foreign Born Population: 2000," by Nolan Malone, Kaari F. Baluja, Joseph M. Costanzo, and Cynthia J. Davis (C2KBR-34, December 2003, .pdf format, 12p.). The brief is linked to from a Census Bureau news release:"Foreign-Born a Majority in Six U.S. Cities; Growth Fastest in South, Census Bureau Reports" (CB03-194, Dec. 17, 2003). Note: The news release also links to two spreadsheets (Microsoft Excel format).

Click on " The Foreign-Born Population: 2000" for full text.

B. "U.S. Population Passes 290 Million; Mountain and Coastal States Fastest-Growing (CB03-197, Dec. 18, 2003). Note: The news release links to three tables (Microsoft Excel format).

National Center for Health Statistics Reports:

A. "Births: Final Data for 2002," by Joyce A. Martin, Brady E. Hamilton, Paul D. Sutton, Stephanie J. Ventura, Fay Menacker, and Martha L. Munson (National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 52, No. 10, December 2003, .pdf format, 116p.). The report is linked to from a NCHS news release: Teen Birth Rate Continues to Decline; _African-American Teens Show Sharpest Drop_: Final 2002 United States Birth Data Now Available," (Dec. 17, 2003).

Click on " View/download PDF" for full text.

B. "Early Release Measures from the January-June 2003 National Health Interview Survey" (December 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 80p.). "In this release, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) updates estimates for 15 selected health measures based on data from the January-June 2003 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), along with estimates from 1997 through 2002 for comparison. The 15 Early Release measures are being published prior to final data editing and final weighting to provide access to the most recent information from the NHIS. The estimates will be updated on a quarterly basis as a new quarter of the NHIS data become available."

C. "Intake of Calories and Selected Nutrients for the United States Population, 1999-2000" (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey [NHANES] Brief, Dec. 2003, .pdf format, 2p.)

Centers for Disease Control New Periodical: _Preventing Chronic Disease_ is a new periodical produced by CDC, freely available in both HTML and .pdf format from the below listed website. Vol. 1, No. 1, January 2004, is now available. "_Preventing Chronic Disease_ (PCD) is a peer-reviewed electronic journal established to provide a forum for public health researchers and practitioners to share study results and practical experience."

Department of Health and Human Services News Release: "Teen Drug Abuse Declines Across Wide Front" (Dec. 19, 2003). Note: The news release discusses findings from the just released Monitoring the Future: 2003 study. More detailed results should be available at:


News release:

National Center for Education Statistics Reports:

A. National Assessment of Educational Progress 2003 Trial Urban District Assessment (Reading) (December 2003):

B. National Assessment of Educational Progress 2003 Trial Urban District Assessment (Mathematics) (December 2003):

Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Reports, Periodical:

A. "How Families and Communities Influence Youth Victimization," by Janet L. Lauritzen (Juvenile Justice Bulletin, November 2003, .pdf format, 11p.).


Provides a statistical portrait of juvenile homicide victimization by drawing on FBI and other data. As part of OJJDP's Crimes Against Children Series, the Bulletin offers detailed information about overall crime patterns and victim age groups. Specific types of juvenile homicide, including maltreatment homicides, abduction homicides, and school homicides, are discussed in further detail. The Bulletin also explores initiatives designed to prevent homicides of children and youth.

B. "Violent Victimization of College Students," by Timothy C. Hart (NCJ 196143, December 2003, ASCII text and .pdf format, 8p., with .zip compressed spreadsheets).


Examines the incidents of college student victimization and compares the findings to persons of similar age in the general population. In addition, the report determines the extent to which student victimization occurs in campus and off-campus locations and settings, as well as the prevalence of alcohol and drugs in student victimizations.

C. _National Institute of Justice Journal_ (Issue 250, November 2003, ASCII text and .pdf format). This is a special issue on intimate partner homicide.

ASCII text:


FBI Report: "Uniform Crime Reports: January-June 2003" (December 2003, .pdf format, 18p.).

Click on "2003 Preliminary January - June" for full text.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, Handbook Chapter Update, News Releases:

A. "Creating Comparability in CPS Employment Series," by Marisa L. Di Natale (December 2003, .pdf format, 3p.).

B. _BLS Handbook of Methods_, Ch. 2 -- Updated (December 2003, .pdf format, 11p.).

C. "Work Experience of the Population: 2002" (Dec. 19, 2003).

D. "Occupational Injuries and Illnesses: 2002" (Dec. 18, 2003).

World Health Organization Compendium, Surveillance Summary:

A. _World Health Report 2003_ (2003,.pdf format, 181p.).

B. "Influenza activity further increases and spreads to more countries in northern hemisphere - update 4" (Communicable Disease Surveillance & Response [CSR], Dec. 17, 2003).

World Bank Periodical Special Report: "Unknown Cities," a series of articles in a special report in _Development Outreach_ (November 2003).

Comision Economica para America Latina y el Carib (CEPAL) Report: "Balance preliminar de las economas de America Latina y el Caribe, 2003" (December 2003, .pdf format, 203p.). Note: This report is available in Spanish only.

Click on arrows next to "Bajar documento" on right side of the page for full text.

Kaiser Family Foundation Health Poll Report, Issue Brief:

A. This release of the bimonthly KFF Health Poll Report features the topic of "Public Opinion on Government Spending on HIV/AIDS." The "Health News Index" features "Knowledge About News : Medicare Prescription Drug Bill".

B. "Teens and TANF: How Adolescents Fare Under the Nation's Welfare Program," by Jodie Levin-Epstein and John Hutchins (December 2003, .pdf format, 8p.). "This issue brief describes the history and main provisions of TANF, focusing on those that relate directly to teens, and describes what is currently known about the program's impact on three different groups of adolescents: TANF teen parents, teenagers living in TANF households, and teens who are involved in TANF-funded initiatives."

Urban Institute Reports:

A. "Educational Alternatives for Vulnerable Youth: Student Needs, Program Types, and Research Directions," by Laudan Y. Aron and Janine M. Zweig (November 2003, .pdf format, 56p.). "Non-college-bound youth and those who have not done well in traditional public schools have largely been left behind by the high-stakes assessment movement and its high academic standards. This report examines the need for alternative education for such vulnerable youth and describes the numbers and characteristics of young people who disconnect from mainstream developmental pathways. It suggests the beginnings of a typology that defines and organizes the varieties of educational alternatives. A summary of findings from a roundtable on directions for future research on alternative education is included."

B. "How Much Do Welfare Recipients Know about Time Limits?" by Sheila R. Zedlewski and Jennifer Holland (Snapshots of America's Families III No. 15, December 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 2p.). "Data from the 2002 round of the National Survey of America's Families show that 37 percent of welfare recipients lack information about when their welfare benefits will end. Half of welfare recipients with two or more barriers to employment lack information about time limits. Three out of four Spanish-speaking recipients are not aware of when their welfare benefits will end."

National Longitudinal Study Bibliography Updates: Note: These citations, along with all of the NLS bibliography, can be found at:

Note: Where available, direct links to full text have been provided. These references represent updated citations from Nov. 3 - Dec. 19, 2003.

Behavior Genetics and Adolescent Development: A Review of Recent Literature In Blackwell Handbook of Adolescence, G. Adams and M. Berzonsky eds., June
2003. Also:
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79
ID Number: 4487
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing, Inc.

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 3, No. 51, Dec. 22, 2003). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe." Note: This issue should be available sometime after noon Eastern Time (17:00 GMT), Dec. 22, 2003.

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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research [Rostock, Germany]:

A. "Italian Adolescents First Romantic Relationships: An Explorative Study," by Marcantonio Caltabiano (WP-2003-038, December 2003, .pdf format, 20p.).


Recently collected retrospective data (from 2000-2001) on Italian university students are analyzed to find out the most significant factors that accelerate or delay the entrance into a first couple relationship for teenagers. Intensity regression analysis is used to test factors that either proved to be noteworthy from previous analyses or are supposed to be significant from a theoretical point of view. Unobserved heterogeneity is included in the model to take into account the characteristics of individuals that are not measured or that are not measurable. The following results arise: age is highly significant, with a decreasing hazard after age 19. The influence of family, a strong institution in Italy, is noticeable. Poor communication with parents is negatively associated with entrance into the first romantic relationship while tolerance of a son's behaviors is positively associated. The social life of a young person also shapes this event: shyer adolescents had a lower relative risk compared to their contemporaries who had many leisure interests and a wider friendship network. As expected, lower satisfaction with self-appearance exerts a negative weight on the hazard. Finally, unobserved heterogeneity is not found to be significant in the model.

B. "Age Correspondence for Different Mortality Regimes with and without the Change Point," by Maxim S. Finkelstein (WP-2003-039, December 2003, .pdf format, 12p.).


The mortality rates are steadily declining with time. The remaining lifetime for e.g. 65 years old person even 20-30 years ago was substantially smaller than nowadays. Therefore, the age correspondence problem for populations in different mortality regimes is of interest. A simple solution, based on the equality of accumulated mortality rates (or, equivalently, on the equality of probabilities of survival) is considered. Furthermore, the mortality regime with a change point is defined and the procedure of age re-calculation after the change point is suggested. Two age re-calculation models (and their combination) are discussed: the first one accounts for wear accumulation in the process of aging and the other is characterized by a kind of memoryless property.

C. "Lifesaving increases Life Expectancy," by Maxim S. Finkelstein (WP-2003-040, December 2003, .pdf format, 9p.).


The notion of repeated minimal repair is analyzed and applied to modeling the lifesaving procedure of organisms. Under certain assumptions the equivalence between demographic lifesaving model and reliability shock model is proved. Both of these models are based on the non-homogeneous Poisson processes of underlying potentially harmful events. The lifesaving ratio for homogeneous and heterogeneous populations is defined. Some generalizations are discussed. Several simple examples are considered.

D. "Modeling Failure (Mortality) Rate with a Change Point," by Maxim S. Finkelstein (WP-2003-041, December 2003, .pdf format, 9p.).


Simple models for the failure (mortality) rate change point are considered. The relationship with the mean residual lifetime function change point problem is discussed. It is shown that when the change point is random, the observed failure (mortality) rate can be obtained via a specific mixture of lifetime distributions. The shape of the observed failure (mortality) rate is analyzed and the corresponding simple but meaningful example is considered.

National Bureau of Economic Research:

A. "Do Dropouts Drop Out Too Soon? International Evidence From Changes in School-Leaving Laws," by Philip Oreopoulos (w10155, December 2003, .pdf format, 43p.).


This paper studies high school dropout behavior by estimating the long-run consequences to leaving school early. I measure these consequences using changes in minimum school leaving ages often introduced to prevent dropping out and compare results across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Students compelled to stay in school experience substantial gains to lifetime wealth, health, and other labor market activities for all three countries, and these results hold up against a wide array of specification checks. I estimate dropping out one year later increases present value income by more than 10 times forgone earnings and more than 2 times the maximum lifetime annual wage. The one-year cost to attending high school would have to be extremely large to offset these gains under a model that views education as an investment. Other, sub-optimal, explanations for why dropouts forgo these benefits are considered.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

B. "Does Human Capital Transfer from Parent to Child? The Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling," by Philip Oreopoulos, Marianne E. Page, and Ann Huff Stevens (w10164, December 2003, .pdf format, 48p.).


The strong correlation between parents' economic status and that of their children has been well-documented, but little is known about the extent to which this is a causal phenomenon. This paper attempts to improve our understanding of the causal processes that contribute to intergenerational immobility by exploiting historical changes in compulsory schooling laws that affected the educational attainment of parents without affecting their innate abilities or endowments. We examine the influence of parental compulsory schooling on grade retention status for children aged 7 to 15 using the 1960, 1970 and 1980 U.S. Censuses. Our estimates indicate that a one-year increase in the education of either parent reduces the probability that a child repeats a grade by between two and seven percentage points. Among 15 to 16 year olds living at home, we also estimate that parental compulsory schooling significantly lowers the likelihood of dropping out. These findings suggest that education policies may be able to reduce part of the intergenerational transmission of inequality.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

Kennedy School of Government [Harvard University] Faculty Research Working Papers: "The Changing Effect of Family Background on the Incomes of American Adults," by David J. Harding, Christopher Jencks, Leonard M. Lopoo and Susan E. Mayer (RWP03-045, November 2003, .pdf format, 56p.).


We analyze changes in the determinants of family income between 1961 and 1999, focusing on the effect of parental education, occupational rank, income, marital status, family size, region of residence, race, and ethnicity. Our data, which cover respondents between the ages of thirty and fifty-nine, come from two Occupational Changes in a Generation surveys, the General Social Survey, and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The multiple correlation between respondents' family income and their parents' characteristics fell between 1961 to 1999. During the 1960s the overall dispersion of respondents' family incomes also fell, so the income gap between respondents from advantaged and disadvantaged families narrowed dramatically. During the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s the overall dispersion of respondents' family income rose again. But because the correlation between respondents' family income and their parents' characteristics was still falling, the income gap between respondents from advantaged and disadvantaged families showed no consistent trend. All else equal, the economic cost of being Black, Hispanic, or born in the South fell between 1961 and 1999. The cost of having a parent who worked in an unskilled rather than a skilled occupation fell between 1961 and 1972 but not after that. Indeed, occupational inequality among parents has probably become more important since 1972. Neither the effect of parental education nor the effect of parental income changed significantly during the years for which we have data. Daughters were considerably less mobile than sons in the 1970s, but this difference diminished in the 1980s and 1990s. Respondents with parents in the bottom quarter of the socioeconomic distribution were more likely to remain in their quartile of origin than respondents with parents in the top quarter of the distribution. We conclude by arguing that while both justice and economic efficiency require a significant amount of exchange mobility, neither justice nor efficiency implies that the correlation between family income and parental advantages ought to be zero. The case for programs that seek to reduce intergenerational inheritance depends on whether they reduce poverty and inequality.

Click on PDF icon for full text.

International Institute for Appllied Systems Analysis (IIASA) [Laxenburg, Austria]:

A. "The Energy Transition in Rural China," by Jiang Leiwen and Brian C. O'Neill (Interim Report IR-03-070, December 2003, .pdf and PostScript format, 24p.).


Based on an analysis of a nationally representative rural household survey and various sources of aggregate statistics, we explore patterns of residential energy use in rural China within the conceptual framework of the energy transition. We find that residential energy consumption varies tremendously across geographic regions due to disparities of access to different energy sources, prices, climate, income, and urbanization level. Household demographic characteristics, in particular household size, have important impacts on residential energy use. Aggregate time series data show that the transition from biomass to modern commercial sources is still at an early stage, and cross-sectional data suggest that incomes may have to rise substantially in order for absolute biomass use to fall. We also find that energy use patterns as a function of net income, rather than total expenditure, are more consistent with the energy transition model in rural China.

Click on PDF or PS icon at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

B. "Future Demographic Change in Europe: The Contribution of Migration," by Wolfgang Lutz and Sergei Scherbov (Interim Report IR-03-066, December 2003, .pdf and PostScript format, 14p.).


The paper quantitatively assesses the effects of possible alternative future migration trends in the European Union (EU-15) on population growth and ageing until 2050. In particular, it views the uncertainty about future migration trends in the context of the range of possible future fertility and mortality trends. This is first done by comparing two sets of probabilistic population projections, a "regular" one including immigration, and hypothetical "no migration" case assuming a closed population. In the second part we consider the question to what extent immigration can compensate for the low birth rates in Europe by combining seven alternative fertility-level scenarios with four migration scenarios. The results show a distinct compensatory effect for both total population size and the old-age dependency ratio: 100,000 additional immigrants per year have the same effect as an increase in the total fertility rate by 0.1 children per woman on the average.

Click on PDF or PS icon at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

Overseas Development Institute [London, UK]: "Communication of Research for Poverty Reduction: A Literature Review," by Ingie Hovland (WP 227, October 2003, .pdf format, 91p.).


In preparation for a new research strategy, the Central Research Team (CRT) at the UK Department for International Development (DFID) have commissioned a series of studies on relevant topics-- among them the topic communication of research for poverty reduction. This literature review contributes to the study by mapping the current recommendations and emerging themes in the literature relevant to this issue, drawing on an annotated bibliography of over 100 documents from DFID and other development agencies, research institutes, academics and practitioners.

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [Bonn, Germany]:

A. "Disability, Gender and the Labour Market," by Melanie K. Jones, Paul L. Latreille, and Peter J. Sloane (Discussion Paper DP-936, November 2003, .pdf format, 39p.).


Using data from the 2002 LFS, we examine the impact of disability on labour market outcomes by gender. Our results indicate that substantial differences in both the likelihood of employment and levels of earnings exist, despite several years of operation of the Disability Discrimination Act. Significant heterogeneity within the disabled group is identified: those suffering from mental health forms of disability fare particularly badly. Wage decompositions suggest the penalty for disability is greater for women than for men. Using the Baldwin and Johnson (1992) methodology, we find the employment effects associated with wage discrimination against the disabled are very small.

B. "Italian Migration," by Daniela Del Boca and Alessandra Venturini (Discussion Paper DP-938, November 2003, .pdf format, 45p.).


Italy is a country with a long history of emigration and a very short experience of immigration. The paper first surveys the Italian emigration pattern describing the characteristics of the Italian emigrants (age, sex, skill level), their area of origins and the directions of their movement. The determinants of the migration choice are then analyzed as well as the policies affecting the decision to migrate. The end of the first section provides an analysis of the emigration effects in the areas of origin, namely the positive effect of the remittances and the changes in the composition of the remaining population. The second section surveys the recent Italian immigration phenomenon with a description of the immigrant characteristics, such as area of origin, sex, age, and location in the country. Special attention has been given to the illegality issue because the majority of the immigrants became legal by applying for an amnesty. The determinants of the emigration in the country of origins and the effects in the destination close the picture. The conclusion provides a look at the future and the policy changes that should be adopted.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

B. click on "browse by publication"
C. Click the "fax/ariel" radio button, type the Journal Name in the "by words in the title" search box and click "search".
D. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

AIDS (Vol. 17, No. 18, 2003).

Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal (Vol. 32, No. 2, 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Gender and Society (Vol. 17, No. 6, 2003).

Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences (Vol. 25, No. 4, 2003).

Journal of Health Care for the Poor and Underserved (Vol. 14, No. 4, 2003).


Other Journals:

Health Policy and Planning (Vol. 18, No. 4, 2003).

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National Institutes of Health: Correction to RFA-HD-03-032: Infrastructure for Data Sharing and Archiving (National Institute of Child Health and Human Development [NICHD], Dec. 16, 2003. Note: The original announcement was covered in CDERR #3, Oct. 20, 2003 at:

Correction can be found at:

Population Reference Bureau: "Fellows Program in Population Policy Communications." "The Population Reference Bureau (PRB) is now accepting applications for its 2004-2005 Fellows Program in Population Policy Communications. The program is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and is open to citizens of developing countries* (restrictions explained at the site) who are doctoral-level students in the United States and Canada. They may be in any field of study but must have a demonstrated interest in population, family planning, or reproductive health." For more information, including deadline and application information, see:

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National Center for Health Statistics:

A. "Supervisory Research Epidemiologist, GS-0601-15/Supervisory Statistician (Health), GS-1530-15 (Dec. 15, 2003). For more information, including opening and closing dates for application see:

B. "Statistician (Demography), GS-1530-11/12 (Dec. 19, 2003)." For more information, including opening and closing dates for application see:

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London School of Economics: "5th European Conference on Health and Economics 2004," a conference to be held in London, UK Sep. 8 - Sep. 11, 2004. For more information, including registration information, see:

Centers for Disease Control: "International Conference on Women and Infectious Diseases (ICWID)" (a conference to be held in Atlanta, Georgia Feb. 27-28, 2004. For more information, including registration information, see:

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National Center for Health Statistics: NCHS has released the 2002 National Health Interview Survey. Data is available in self-decompressing (.exe) ASCII text format, with documentation, Survey Questionnaires, Flashcards, Field Representative Manual, and Survey Flowchart (.pdf format), and SPSS, SAS and Stata data statements (ASCII text format). A survey description document (.pdf format, 98p.), is also available.

Click on "2002 NHIS Data Release" for links to the above listed items.

National Center for Education Statistics: "Handbooks Online: An Online Resource For Standard Education Terms, Definitions, and Classification Codes" (December 2003). "The NCES Data Handbooks provide guidance on consistency in data definitions and maintenance for education data, so that such data can be accurately aggregated and analyzed. The online Handbook database provides the Nonfiscal Handbooks in a searchable web tool. This database includes data elements for students, staff, and education institutions."

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research: The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Data Archive (SAMHDA) of ICPSR has made available via its online Data Analysis System (DAS) the 2001 Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS). Note: At the time of mailing there was a note at this site: "The 2001 Treatment Episode Data Set is temporarily unavailable. We apologize for any inconvenience." The site should be running again in the near future.

Quick tables are available at: Note: At the time of mailing there was a note at this site: "For the 2001 TEDS. Quick Tables for this study are temporarily unavailable. We apologize for any inconvenience." The site should be running again in the near future.

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706