Current Demographic Research Report #15, January 21, 2004.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Centers for Disease Control Periodical
Department of Housing and Urban Development Report
Bureau of Justice Statistics Report
US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service News Release
World Health Organization News Release
_Demographic Research_ Article
Urban Institute Reports
Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodicals
National Longitudinal Survey Bibliography Update
Info Health Pop. Reporter


Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) [Milan, Italy]
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [Bonn, Germany]
University of Michigan Retirement Research Center



National Institutes of Health


Census Bureau
American Religion Data Archive



Centers for Disease Control Periodical: _Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_ (Vol. 52, No. 53, Jan. 9, 2003, HTML and .pdf format). Most of the articles in this week's report may be of interest to researchers in demography. The articles of possible interest are: "State-Specific Prevalence of Current Cigarette Smoking Among Adults ---United States, 2002"; "Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in a Dairy Cow --- Washington State, 2003"; "Update: Influenza-Associated Deaths Reported Among Children Aged <Years --- United States, 2003--04 Influenza Season"; and "Update: Influenza Activity --- United States, December 21, 2003 -- January 3, 2004."


Note. This is a temporary address. When the next _MMWR_ is released, this one will be available at:


Department of Housing and Urban Development Report: "Rental Market Dynamics: Is Affordable Housing For the Poor an Endangered Species?" (December 2003, .pdf format, 54p.). "This study uses American Housing Survey data to examine the changes in the rental housing stock in six metropolitan area (Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, and Northern New Jersey) over the period 1995-1999. It tracks the sources of new rental housing, the reasons for loss of rental housing, and changes in affordability of the existing rental housing stock."

Bureau of Justice Statistics Report: "HIV in Prisons, 2001," by Laura M. Maruschak (NCJ 202293), January 2004, ASCII text and .pdf format, 8p., with .zip compressed spreadsheets).


Provides the number of HIV-positive and active AIDS cases among prisoners held in each State and the Federal prison system at year-end 2001. The annual report includes data on the number of AIDS-related deaths, a breakdown for women and men with AIDS, and comparisons to AIDS rates in the general population. Historical data on AIDS cases are presented from 1995 and on AIDS deaths from 1991.

US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service News Release:"Survey Links Fast Food, Poor Nutrition Among U.S. Children," by Rosalie Marion Bliss (Jan. 5, 2004).

World Health Organization News Release: "World Bank, World Health Organization convene high-level meeting to map out strategy for meeting health MDGs" (Jan. 8, 2004).

_Demographic Research_ Article: Note: _DR_ is "a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research." "Educational differentials in male mortality in Russia and northern Europe: A comparison of an epidemiological cohort from Moscow and St. Petersburg with the male populations of Helsinki and Oslo," by Vladimir Shkolnikov, Alexander D. Deev, Oystein Kravdal, and Tapani Valkonen (Vol. 10, Article 1, January 2004, .pdf format, p. 3-26).


Background: Prior estimates of the Russian mortality by socio-demographic group revealed significant differentials around the censuses of 1979 and 1989, but these studies were based on different sources of information on education for the deceased and the population at risk, leading to a potential numerator-denominator bias. To eliminate this problem, and to compare with the corresponding differentials in Nordic countries, an epidemiological cohort from Moscow and St. Petersburg is used for estimation of mortality in this study, along with similar register-based data from Helsinki and Oslo.

Data and Methods: The Russian data include 7815 men from Moscow and St. Petersburg born in 1916-35 who participated in the Lipid Research Clinics (LRC) program, with a follow-up period from 1975 to 1997. Data with a similar structure, covering complete cohorts, were established for men born 1916-35 cohorts and living in Helsinki (1976-1995) or Oslo (1975-1991). Three educational categories were used: low (less than 10 years of schooling), middle (11 to 12 years) and high (13+ years).

Results: In the LRC cohort, mortality of men with high education is close to the city average for Helsinki and Oslo. Absolute inter-group differences are much greater in the Russian sample than in the two other populations. Differences in temporary life expectancies (40-74) between men with high and low education are 5.2, 3.5, and 3.2 years in the LRC cohort, Helsinki, and Oslo, respectively. Also relative differences are larger in the LRC cohort, although less markedly. Low/high education ratios of standardized death rates are 2.2, 2.0, and 1.9 in the three populations. Educational mortality differences measured by a relative index of inequality are 3.1, 2.7, and 2.6 (using the all-Russia educational distribution in the calculation for the LRC cohort.) A similar pattern appears, of course, in Poisson regression models where it is controlled not only for age, but also calendar time. Consideration of causes of death shows that the larger relative difference between educational categories in the LRC cohort than in the Nordic capitals stems from particularly sharp gradients in mortality from cerebrovascular diseases and, more clearly, external causes. Whereas all-cause mortality has increased over time for men in the LRC cohort with low or middle education, there are indications that those with high education have experienced a decline (i.e. differentials have increased). In contrast to this, the development in Oslo and Helsinki has been more similar for the different educational groups.

Implications: The educational gaps in mortality of the Russian population and its extreme levels in the low education group should be addressed by adequate health policies. Trends in inequalities in health and their determinants require careful monitoring and further analyses.

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Urban Institute Reports:

A. "How the 2001 and 2003 Tax Cuts Affect Hypothetical Families," by Adam Carasso, C. Eugene Steuerle, and Mohammed Adeel Saleem (_Tax Notes_, December 2003, HTML and .pdf format, p. 1461).

B. "Changes in Children's Well-Being and Family Environments," by Sharon Vandivere , Megan Gallagher, and Kristin Anderson Moore (Snapshots of America's Families III No. 18, January 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 4p.).


Data from the 2002 National Survey of America's Families shows that school engagement declined from 43 percent in 1997 to 35 percent in 2002 among 6- to 11-year-olds. School engagement also declined for 12- to 17-year-olds between 1997 and 2002 (from 38 to 31 percent respectively). The share of young children whose parents read or told stories to them infrequently dropped from 17 to 14 percent. Higher-income children showed some small setbacks in their behavioral and emotional health.

Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodicals:

A. _Guttmacher Report on Public Policy_ (Vol. 6, No. 5, December 2003, .pdf format).

B. _Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health_ (Vol. 35, No. 6, November/December 2003, .pdf format).

National Longitudinal Survey Bibliography Update: Note: These citations, along with all of the NLS bibliography, can be found at:

Note: Where available, direct links to full text have been provided. These references represent updated citations from Dec. 22, 2003- Jan. 9, 2004.

Behavior Genetics and Adolescent Development: A Review of Recent Literature
In: Blackwell Handbook of Adolescence, G. Adams and M. Berzonsky eds.,
June 2003. Also:
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79
ID Number: 4487
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing, Inc.

Introduction to Chapter 1: Behavior genetics is a quantitative method, and adolescent development is a psychological topic. Treating the cross between these two arenas appears, at the surface, to require collecting research in which the method has been applied to study the topic, and reviewing that research for coherence and common themes. But the challenge is rather more difficult than the surface level view might suggest. Below the surface is a great deal of shifting sand, which makes organizing the topic difficult. Because of this instability, it is critical that we carefully and explicitly define a foundational starting point. In the introduction to this article, we begin with some definitions, and then we describe the difficulties inherent in reviewing "behavior genetics and adolescent development." We conclude our introduction with a summary of the foundation on which we will base our review. In the next section, we carefully build that foundation. Following, we summarize the relevant research, and embed it within the organizational foundation.

Occupational Stratification over the Life Course
Work and Occupations 30,4 (November 2003): 440-474
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4488
Publisher: Sage Publications

The Effect of Teenage Employment on Delinquency and Problem Behaviors
Social Forces 82,1 (September 2003): 297-336
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4489
Publisher: University of North Carolina Press

Changes in Family Structure and Child Outcomes: Roles of Economic and Familial Resources
Policy Studies Journal 31,3 (2003):309-331
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
ID Number: 4490
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing, Inc.

The Long Arm of the Law: Effects of Labeling on Employment
Sociological Quarterly 44,3 (Summer 2003):385-405
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4491
Publisher: University of California Press

Doing Well by Doing Good: Volunteering and Occupational Achievement Among American Women
Sociological Quarterly 44,3 (Summer 2003):433
Cohort(s): Young Women
ID Number: 4492
Publisher: University of California Press

The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Health Insurance Coverage of Americans
NBER/Frontiers in Health Policy Research 6,1 (January 2003):87-115
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4493
Publisher: MIT Press

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 4, No. 2, Jan. 12, 2004). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) [Milan, Italy]: "The Struggle of Becoming Established in a Deprived Inner-City Neighbourhood," by David May (WP 101.03, November 2003, .pdf format, 13p.).


The theory of established-outsider figurations developed by Norbert Elias is a useful tool for examining deprived neighbourhoods. The case of this paper is Dortmund Nordstadt in Germany, an old inner-city neighbourhood which from its early days has housed the newly arrived immigrants. Elias claims that the social cohesion of the established together with the stigmatisation of the outsiders lead to status and power differentials that exclude the outsiders. In Nordstadt, three levels of established-outsider relations overlap and affect each other. On the first, the societal level, the Germans stand opposite to the immigrants. On the second, the city level, Nordstadt is put into the outsider position. Furthermore, the spatial hierarchy is linked with the first level of established-outsider relations as Nordstadt is a traditional immigrant neighbourhood. On the third, the neighbourhood level, the other established-outsider relations are in part reproduced and in part changed by recent developments.

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Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [Bonn, Germany]:

A. "Identification, Characteristics and Impact of Faked Interviews in Surveys: An analysis by means of genuine fakes in the raw data of SOEP," by Joerg-Peter Schraepler and Gert G. Wagner (Discussion Paper No. 969, December 2003, .pdf format, 34p.).


To the best of our knowledge, most of the few methodological studies which analyze the impact of faked interviews on survey results are based on "artificial fakes" generated by project students in a "laboratory environment". In contrast, panel data provide a unique opportunity to identify data which are actually faked by interviewers. By comparing data of two waves almost all fakes are easily identifiable. So the raw data of the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) provide a rich source of faked interviews because it is built on several sub-samples. However, because interviewers know that panel respondents will be interviewed again over the course of time, clever interviewers will not fake panel interviews. In fact, in raw data of SOEP the share is about only 0.5 percent of all records. The fakes are used for an analysis of the potential impact of non detected fakes on survey results. The major result is that the faked records have no impact on the mean and the proportions. But in very rare, exceptional cases there may be a bias in estimates of correlations and regression coefficients if fakes would not be detected. One should note that -- except for some fakes in the first two waves of sample E -- faked data were never disseminated within the widely-used SOEP. The fakes were detected before the data were released.

Click on "Discussion Paper No. 969" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

B. "Occupational Choice Across Generations," by Amelie Constant and Klaus F. Zimmermann (Discussion Paper No. 975, December 2003, .pdf format, 28p.).


There are few studies on occupational choices in Germany, and the second generation occupational choice and mobility is even less investigated. Such research is important because occupations determine success in the labor market. In a country like Germany occupations also reflect a general socio-economic standing. This paper looks at the patterns of employment in Germany, analyzes how individual men and women access jobs given their family background, and investigates why men and women have different occupational distributions. Based on the German Socio-Economic Panel we estimate multinomial logit models of occupational choice for the children of immigrants as well as for the natives. Our findings are surprisingly similar for both natives and immigrants. For both Germans and immigrants, we find that gender significantly and differentially affects occupational choice, and that individuals with more education choose higher ranking jobs. The role of experience is important for natives and qualified individuals only. Germans are more likely to choose occupations similar to their fathers occupation when their father is in the white collar or professional category. In stark contrast, the immigrants occupational choice is more influenced by their mothers education and not by their fathers occupation.

Click on "Discussion Paper No. 975" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

University of Michigan Retirement Research Center: "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," by Hugo Benitez-Silva, Debra S. Dwyer, Wayne-Roy Gayle, and Thomas J. Muench (WP 2003-059, October 2003, .pdf format, 19p.).


An increasing number of longitudinal data sets collect expectations information regarding a variety of future individual level events and decisions, providing researchers with the opportunity to explore expectations over micro variables in detail. We provide a theoretical framework and an econometric methodology to use that type of information to test the Rational Expectations hypothesis in models of individual behavior, and present tests using two different panel data sets.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 159, No. 2, Jan. 15, 2004).

American Journal of Public Health (Vol. 94, No. 1, January 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library and the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of these databases and this issue.

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National Institutes of Health: "International Studies in Health and Social Development (ISHED) (RFA-TW-04-003, Jan. 8, 2004, National Institutes of Health, in conjunction with Fogarty International Center (FIC)). For more information see:

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Census Bureau: "School Enrollment--Social and Economic Characteristics of Students: October 2002, Detailed Tables" (Microsoft Excel, .pdf, and comma separated value [.csv] format). The source of this data is the October 2002 Current Population Survey Educational Attainment Supplement.

American Religion Data Archive: ARDA has recently released the following data files, which may be of interest to demographic researchers. Data files are available in SPSS, Microsoft Excel and ASCII format, with documentation in ASCII format.

A. United States Census of Religious Bodies, County File, 1906:

B. United States Census of Religious Bodies, State File, 1906:

C. United States Census of Religious Bodies, County File, 1916:

D. United States Census Of Religious Bodies, State File, 1916:

E. United States Census Of Religious Bodies, County File, 1926:

F. United States Census Of Religious Bodies, State File, 1926:

G. United States Census Of Religious Bodies, County File, 1936:

H. United States Census Of Religious Bodies, State File, 1936:

For all data set download options, see choices under "BROWSE FILES" in the left frame of the page.

More information on ARDA:

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706