Current Demographic Research Report #2, October 14, 2003.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Report) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:

Index to this issue:


Census 2000 Brief
United Nations Population Fund Compendium, Report
World Health Organization Feature
National Center for Education Statistics Report
USDA Economic Research Service Report
World Bank Monograph
_Demographic Research_ Article
Kaiser Family Foundation Report, Chartbook
Urban Institute Report
Allen Guttmacher Institute Report
Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for
Communication Programs Compendium

NLS Bibliography Updates


RAND Corporation Population and Labor Program
National Bureau of Economic Research


Other Journals


North Carolina Preparedness Training Center Site


National Center for Education Statistics
US Department of Housing and Urban Development
USDA Economic Research Service


US House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Health Hearing Testimony



Census 2000 Brief: "Language Use and English-Speaking Ability: 2000," by Hyon B. Shin and Rosalind Bruno (Census Bureau C2KBR-29, October 2003, .pdf format, 11p.). The report, along with six detailed tables (Microsoft Excel and .pdf format) is linked to from a Census Bureau news release:"Nearly 1-in-5 Speak a Foreign Language at Home; Most Also Speak English 'Very Well,' Census Bureau Reports" (Oct. 8, 2003).

Click on "Language Use and English-Speaking Ability" for full text, click on "Detailed tables" for tables.

United Nations Population Fund Compendium, Report:

A. "State of World Population 2003: Making 1 Billion Count: Investing in Adolescents' Health and Rights," edited by Stan Bernstein and William A. Ryan (October 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 84p.). _SOWP_ reports are available back to 1996 at the site.

B. "Population and Poverty: Achieving Equity, Equality, and Sustainability" (Population and Development Strategies No. 8, June 2003, .pdf format, 157p.).

World Health Organization Feature: "Stories of tragedy and hope: access to treatment for people living with HIV/AIDS." "New hope - the story of Ishmael Time, Jwaneng, Botswana" (October 2003). Note: the pages of this feature appear as a popout website with independent navigation). "This is the first in a series of feature stories about people living with HIV/AIDS. Each story is very different. Some tell a tale of people struggling with the debilitating effects of HIV and the fear of an early death. Other stories are much more positive. Thanks to a breakthrough in the delivery of antiretroviral medicines, individuals are not only beating HIV, they now have renewed hope for the future, for themselves and for their families."

National Center for Education Statistics Report: "School District Expenditures for Elementary and Secondary Education: 1997-98," by Joel D. Sherman, Barbara Gregory, and Jeffrey M. Poirier (NCES 2003340, September 2003, .pdf format, 160p.).


This report presents school district level analyses of expenditures for the 1997-98 school year. The School District Financial Survey (F-33) data form the core of these analyses, but information is supplemented by data on state demographic and fiscal characteristics from the Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The School District Financial Survey is an annual survey of state district finance data that is now part of the Common Core of Data. Analyses of expenditures per pupil are presented using both unadjusted and cost-adjusted dollars. Cost adjustments are designed to take into account differences in the cost of education across the nation.

USDA Economic Research Service Report: "Food Assistance Landscape, September 2003," by Victor Oliveira (Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Report No. FANRR28-3, September 2003, .pdf format, 6p.).


Domestic food assistance programs account for over half of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) outlays. Each year, about 1 in 5 Americans is served by 1 or more of the 15 food assistance programs aimed at improving the nutrition, well-being, and food security of needy Americans. The Economic Research Service (ERS) is responsible for conducting studies and evaluations of USDA's food assistance programs, focusing on the benefits of improved diets and food choices, factors that influence diet and nutrition, and program outcomes. This report uses preliminary data from USDA's Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) to examine trends in the food assistance programs at the midpoint of fiscal 2003. It also discusses two recent congressionally mandated studies conducted by ERS: an assessment of WIC cost-containment practices, and an evaluation of the USDA Fruit and Vegetable Pilot Program.

World Bank Monograph: "Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean: Breaking with History?" (World Bank, October 2003, .pdf format, 79p.). The report is linked to from a World Bank News Release: "Inequality in Latin America & the Caribbean: Breaking with History?" (Oct. 7, 2003).

_Demographic Research_ Article: Note: _DR_ is "a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research." "A system of model fertility schedules with graphically intuitive parameters," by Carl Schmertmann (Vol. 9, Art. 5, October 10, 2003, .pdf format, with additional files in .pdf and Microsoft Excel format, compressed or uncompressed).


I propose and examine a new family of models for age-specific fertility schedules, in which three index ages determine the schedule's shape. The new system is based on constrained quadratic splines. It has easily interpretable parameters, is flexible enough to fit a variety of"noiseless" schedules well, and is inflexible enough to avoid implausible estimates from noisy data. Across a set of over two hundred contemporary ASFR schedules, the new model fits a majority better, and in some cases much better, than the Coale-Trussell model. When fit to a recent Swedish time series, model parameters exhibit simple, regular changes over time, suggesting utility in forecasting applications. In simulated small-sample data the new model produces plausible ASFR estimates, with errors similar to Coale-Trussell.

Click on "Enter".

Kaiser Family Foundation Report, Chartbook:

A. "_Seventeen_ Magazine and Kaiser Family Foundation Release New Survey of Teens About Virginity and The First Time" (KFF SexSmarts Survey, October 2003, Summary, .pdf format, 4p., toplines, .pdf format, 4p.). "As part of an on-going public information partnership called SexSmarts, _Seventeen_ and the Kaiser Family Foundation conduct nationally-representative surveys of teens 15 to 17 on issues related to their sexual health. The latest in the series examines their attitudes and opinions about virginity and first sexual activity among adolescents. It covers a variety of issues related to decision-making, including when and why some teens choose to have sex and what issues and concerns influence their decision to wait."

For more on SexSmarts, see the _Seventeen_ Magazine SexSmarts site:

B. "Health Insurance Coverage in Rural America" (Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, September 2003, .pdf format, 84p.). Also included is a two page factsheet (.pdf format). "This chartbook presents analysis of national data on health insurance coverage based on a county's proximity to a large urban area. It answers questions of how much health insurance coverage differs among people living in rural vs. urban communities, as well as, the differences in socio-economic and employment characteristics of those living in rural vs. urban counties."

Urban Institute Report: "Exploring State Variation in Uninsurance Rates among Low-Income Workers," by Linda J. Blumberg and Amy J. Davidoff (New Federalism: National Survey of America's Families No. B-56, October 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 11p.).


Using data from the 1999 National Survey of America's Families, this brief provides details of uninsurance among low-income workers in 13 states. States with relatively high rates of uninsurance among low-income workers tend to have greater than average proportions of Hispanics (both citizens and noncitizens); workers in fair or poor health; and workers in agriculture and construction. The research did not find differences across states in uninsurance among low-income workers by employer size. The brief reviews uninsurance rates for low-income workers across 13 states by race/ethnicity/citizenship, health status, employer size, industry, and employment status.

Allen Guttmacher Institute Report: "In Their Own Right: Addressing the Sexual and Reproductive Health Needs of Men Worldwide" (October 2003, .pdf format, 72p.). "This new report is the most comprehensive resource available on men's sexual and reproductive behavior and needs, encompassing men in 45 developing and developed countries from sexual initiation through marriage and parenthood."

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 3, No. 41, Oct. 13, 2003). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

NLS Bibliography Updates: Note: These citations, along with all of the NLS bibliography, can be found at:

Note: Where available, direct links to full text have been provided. These references represent updated citations from Oct. 6 - Oct. 10, 2003.

Smoke Or Fog? The Usefulness of Retrospectively Reported Information About Smoking
Addiction 98,9 (September 2003):1307-1314. Also:
Cohort(s): Mature Women, NLSY79, Older Men
ID Number: 4477
Publisher: Carfax Publishing Company

Racial Variation in the Effects of Sons versus Daughters on the Disruption of the First Marriage
Journal of Divorce and Remarriage 38,3-4 (2003): 41-60
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
ID Number: 4478
Publisher: Haworth Press, Inc.

Seeing Their Surroundings: The Effects of Neighborhood Setting and Race on Maternal Stress Levels
Social Science Research 32,3 (September 2003): 402-428
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4479
Publisher: Academic Press, Inc.

Bullying: The Consequences of Interparental Discord and Childs Self-Concept
Family Process 42,2 (Summer 2003): 237-251. Also:
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
ID Number: 4480
Publisher: Family Process Inc.

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RAND Corporation Population and Labor Program:

A. "Designing Multidisciplinary Biobehavioral Research on Prematurity and LBW: Methodological Considerations," by Brian Karl Finch (DRU-3113, WP-03-20, 2003,.pdf format, 20p.).

B. "The Design of a Multilevel Survey of Children, Families, and Communities: The Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey," by Narayan Sastry, Bonnie Ghosh-Dastidar, John Adams, and Anne R. Pebley (DRU-2400/1-1-LAFANS, WP 03-21, June 2003, .pdf format, 55p.).


In the last fifteen years, there has been a growing interest in the role of neighborhoods in shaping a variety of outcomes for children, adults, and families. Although theoretical perspectives are well advanced and the basic statistical methods for modeling neighborhood effects are in place, a major shortcoming concerns the limitations of existing datasets. Past surveys concerned with understanding childrens outcomes have not been designed with the explicit goal of supporting multilevel modeling. This makes it difficult to address the most important unresolved research issue in this area, which is to develop an understanding of the causal effects of neighborhoods factors. In this paper, we describe the development and implementation of the sampling design for the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Study (L.A.FANS), a survey of children, adults, families, and neighborhoods in Los Angeles County. This survey was designed to support multilevel studies on a number of topics, including child development, residential mobility, and welfare reform. We describe the design of the baseline wave, highlighting the analytical and statistical issues that shaped the study. We also present the results of an in-depth statistical investigation of the surveys ability to support multilevel analyses that was carried out as part of the study design. The results of this study provide important guideposts for future studies of neighborhoods and their effects on adults and children.

C. "Concentrated Poverty vs. Concentrated Affluence: Effects on Neighborhood Social Environments and Children's Outcomes," by Anne R. Pebley and Narayan Sastry (DRU-2400/10-LAFANS, WP 03-24, May 2003, .pdf format, 26p.).

National Bureau of Economic Research: "Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates? A Reconciliation and New Results," by Justin Wolfers (w10015, October 2003, .pdf format, 29p.).


Application of the Coase Theorem to marital bargaining suggests that shifting from a consent divorce regime to no-fault unilateral divorce laws should not affect divorce rates. Each iteration of the empirical literature examining the evolution of divorce rates across US states has yielded different conclusions about the effects of divorce law liberalization. I show that these results reflect a failure to jointly consider both the political endogeneity of these divorce laws and the dynamic response of divorce rates to a shock to the political regime. Taking explicit account of the dynamic response of divorce rates to the policy shock, I find that liberalized divorce laws caused a discernible rise in divorce rates for about a decade, but that this increase was substantially reversed over the next decade. That said, this increase explains very little of the rise in the divorce rate over the past half century. Both administrative data on the flow of new divorces, and measures of the stock of divorcees from the census support this conclusion. These results are suggestive of spouses bargaining within marriage, with an eye to their partner's divorce threat.

Click on "PDF or submit your email address for full text. Note: NBER papers may not be free of charge to non-institutional users. See the above page for purchasing information.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

Other Journals:

American Journal of Sociology (Vol. 108, No. 6, May 2003).

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North Carolina Preparedness Training Center Site: Free online trainings are available from the Center in the following topics: Biostatistics; Bioterrorist Agents; Community Assessment; Emerging and Reemerging Disease Agents; Epidemiology Methods; Geographic Information Systems (GIS); Public Health Law; Sampling; and Surveillance and Outbreak Investigation. For more information see:

For more information on the UNC PTCS see:

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National Center for Education Statistics Build a Table: This NCES web based data extractor has been updated and now includes data from the 1995-6 to 2001-2 Common Core of Data (CCD). Data can be viewed, printed, or downloaded to spreadsheet compatible files.

US Department of Housing and Urban Development 2004 Fair Market Rents (October 2003, Microsoft Word, .pdf, and Microsoft Excel formats). "Fair Market Rents (FMRs) determine the eligibility of rental housing units for the Section 8 Housing Assistance Payments program. Section 8 Rental Certificate program participants cannot rent units whose rents exceed the FMRs. FMRs also serve as the payment standard used to calculate subsidies under the Rental Voucher program. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) annually estimates FMRs for 354 metropolitan areas and 2,350 nonmetropolitan county FMR areas." Fair market rent data going back to 2001 is also available at the site.

USDA Economic Research Service: International Food Consumption Patterns."Food budget shares and income and price elasticities are estimated, using 1996 data, for nine major consumption groups and eight food subgroups across 114 countries. The broad groups include food, beverage, and tobacco; clothing and footwear; education; gross rent, fuel, and power; house furnishings and operations; medical care; recreation; transport and communications; and other items. Food subgroups include bread and cereals, meat, fish, dairy products, fats and oils, fruit and vegetables, beverages and tobacco, and other food products. The depth and breath of these data provide an opportunity to incorporate the elasticities into research on changing food demand patterns." Data is available in viewable, printable, and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet format. This page links to a USDA ERS report: "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns," by James Seale, Jr., Anita Regmi, and Jason A. Bernstein (Technical Bulletin 1904, October 2003, .pdf format, 70p.).

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US House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Health Hearing Testimony: "Challenges Facing the Medicaid Program in the 21st Century," a hearing held Oct. 8, 2003).

Hearing Testimony:

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706