Current Demographic Research Report #20, February 23, 2004.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


National Center for Health Statistics Report
_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_ Articles
National Institutes of Health News Release
National Center for Education Statistics Issue Brief
GAO/HUD Report, Data, Survey Instrument
Kennedy School of Government Conference Paper
Kaiser Family Foundation Reports
Urban Institute Report
Allan Guttmacher Institute Reports
PBS Newshour Story Transcript
Info Health Pop. Reporter
National Longitudinal Survey Bibliography Update


Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)


Other Journals


University of Chicago Press


University of California-Santa Barbara SPACE


Roper Center


National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)


Population and Health InfoShare



National Center for Health Statistics Report: "United States Life Tables, 2001," by Elizabeth Arias (National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 52, No. 14, February 2004, .pdf format, 40p.).

_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_ Articles:

A. "Disparities in Premature Deaths from Heart Disease --- 50 States and the District of Columbia, 2001" (Centers for Disease Control, Vol. 53, No. 6, Feb. 20, 2004, HTML and .pdf format, p. 121-125).

B. "Heterosexual Transmission of HIV --- 29 States, 1999--2002" (Centers for Disease Control, Vol. 53, No. 6, Feb. 20, 2004, HTML and .pdf format, p. 125-129).

.pdf for both articles:

National Institutes of Health News Release: "Study Shows Link Between Antibiotic Use and Increased Risk of Breast Cancer" (Feb. 17, 2004).

National Center for Education Statistics Issue Brief: "Undergraduate Enrollments in Academic, Career, and Vocational Education," by Lisa Hudson and Linda Shafer (NCES 2004018, February 2004, .pdf format, 3p., with standard error tables, .pdf format, 1p.).


This issue brief examines postsecondary vocational education within the context of all undergraduate education, using a new taxonomy that classifies undergraduate majors as academic majors or career majors. The taxonomy further divides career majors into sub-baccalaureate and baccalaureate level majors. At the baccalaureate level, career majors are considered nonvocational and at the sub-baccalaureate level they are considered vocational. Using the new taxonomy, most baccalaureate and sub-baccalaureate students in 1999-2000 were enrolled in career-oriented majors, as opposed to academic majors. Sub-baccalaureate students were more likely than baccalaureate students to enroll in career majors, with about 7 out of 10 sub-baccalaureate students having vocational career majors. These findings are based on data from degree-seeking undergraduates in the 1999-2000 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study.

General Accounting Office/Department of Housing and Urban Development Report, Data, Survey Instrument:

A. "Multifamily Housing: More Accessible HUD Data Could Help Efforts to Preserve Housing for Low-Income Tenants" (GAO-04-20, January 2004, .pdf format, 43p.).

Note: This is a temporary address. GAO reports are always available at:

Related Items:

B. "HUD's Inventory of Affordable Multifamily Housing: Data on Properties with Mortgages Scheduled to Mature and Rental Assistance Set to Expire." (GAO-04-210SP, January 2004, CD-ROM availability only, check at the site for acquisition information).

C. "Results of Survey of State and Local Housing Agencies on Tools and Incentives Used to Keep HUD-Subsidized Properties Affordable to Low-Income Tenants" (GAO-04-211SP January 2004).

Kennedy School of Government [Harvard University] Conference Paper: "The Future of Migration: Irresistible Forces meet Immovable Ideas," by Lant Pritchett (Presented to The Future of globalization: Explorations in light of the recent turbulence," a conference held at Yale University, New Haven Connecticut, Oct. 10, 2003 (Microsoft Word format, 42p.).

Kaiser Family Foundation Reports:

A. "Emergency Contraception in California," by Alina Salganicoff, Barbara Wentworth, and Usha Ranji (February 2004, .pdf format, 22p., survey toplines, .pdf format, 19p.). "As the FDA continues to deliberate about whether emergency contraception will be made available 'over-the-counter' without a prescription, a new Kaiser Family Foundation survey examines Californian's awareness of and experiences with emergency contraception, inlcuding findings on the state's 'pharmacy access' program. California's 'pharmacy access' program permits women to receive emergency contraception from participating pharmacists directly without contacting a physician, while the 'over-the-counter' option the FDA is considering would allow people to obtain emergency contraception off-the-shelves at participating retailers without pharmacist consultation."

B. "Medicaid's Federal-State Partnership: Alternatives for Improving Financial Integrity," by Penny Thompson (February 2004, .pdf format, 30p.). "As the federal government increases its scrutiny of state financing of the Medicaid program, this paper, authored by a former CMS [Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services] official, evaluates the existing financial management of the Medicaid program. Using existing models from the private sector and the government, the paper identifies alternatives to improve Medicaid's financial management without changing Medicaid's existing financing structure. The alternatives would reduce the Medicaid program's exposure to questionable practices, help control federal costs, and make the financial management of the program more comparable with that of the private sector."

Urban Institute Reports:

A. "Economic Status in Later Life among Women Who Raised Children Outside of Marriage," by Richard W. Johnson and Melissa Favreault (February 2004, .pdf format, 25p.).

Click on "PDF" for full text.

B. "Analysis of Alternative Financial Service Providers," by Noah Sawyer and Kenneth Temkin (February 2004, .pdf format, 38p.).

Click on "PDF" for full text.

Allan Guttmacher Institute Reports:

A. "U.S. Teenage Pregnancy Statistics With Comparative Statistics For Women Aged 20-24, by Stanley K. Henshaw (updated February 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 14p.).

B. "U.S. Teenage Pregnancy Statistics: Overall Trends, Trends by Race and Ethnicity and State-by-State Information (updated February 2004, .pdf format, 22p.).

PBS Newshour Story Transcript: "Stimulating Science" (_News Hour with Jim Lehrer_, Feb. 16, 2004). "Dr. Elias Zerhouni, director of the National Institutes of Health, is spearheading efforts to speed up the time it takes for laboratory discoveries to be translated into new medical treatments and drugs. Susan Dentzer talks to Zerhouni and other researchers about the proposed changes at the NIH and their implications for medical research." The site also links to a video transcript (RealPlayer or Windows Media Player plug-in or helper application required).

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 4, No. 8, Feb. 23, 2004). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

National Longitudinal Survey Bibliography Update: Note: These citations, along with all of the NLS bibliography, can be found at:

Note: This reference represents updated citations from Feb. 9 - Feb. 19, 2004.

Can We Predict School Behavior?
Children and Schools 26,1 (January 2004): 23-37
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
ID Number: 4500
Publisher: National Association of Social Workers (NASW)

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Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]:

A. "School Quality, Educational Attainment and Aggregation Bias," by Michael Fertig and Robert E. Wright (Discussion Paper 994, January 2004, .pdf format, 8p.).


Data from 31 countries participating in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) is used to estimate education production functions for reading literacy. The Analysis suggests that the probability of finding statistically significant and correctly signed class size effects increases the higher the level of aggregation used to measure class size.

B. "The Optimal Timing of School Tracking," by Giorgio Brunello, Massimo Giannini, and Kenn Ariga (Discussion Paper 995, January 2004, .pdf format, 29.p).


We develop a simple model which determines the optimal timing of school tracking as the outcome of the trade off between the advantages of specialization, which call for early tracking, and the costs of early selection, which lead to later tracking. We calibrate the model for Germany and study how relative demand shifts toward more general skills and changes in the (exogenous) rate of technical progress affect the optimal tracking time as well as the efficient allocation of students to general and vocational tracks.

C. "What Do Social Scientists Know About the Benefits of Marriage? A Review of Quantitative Methodologies," by David C. Ribar (Discussion Paper 998, January 2004, .pdf format, 79p.).


This study critically reviews quantitative methods that have been employed and evidence that has been gathered to assess the benefits of marriage and consequences of other family structures. The study begins by describing theoretical models of the determinants of different well-being outcomes and the role of family structure in producing those outcomes. It also discusses models of the determinants of marriage. The study then overviews specific statistical techniques that have been applied in empirical analyses of the effects of marriage, including standard regression, instrumental variables, selection and switching models, matching, non-parametric bounds, fixed effects, and latent factor (correlated random effects) methods. The study then reviews selected studies that have been completed in three domains of well-being outcomes: children's well-being, adults' earnings, and adults' physical health.

D. "Wage Dips and Drops around First Birth," by Astrid Kunze and Mette Ejrnaes (Discussion Paper 1011, February 2004, .pdf format, 56p.).


We use a rich longitudinal data set for West Germany to disentangle the wage effects for female workers around first birth. Data on daily real wages reveal a dip in women's real wages shortly before giving birth and a drop of 10 to 20 percent after finishing maternity leave and returning to the labour market. To pinpoint what drives the movement in wages around the first birth, we analyse the wages of women, taking into account the potential correlation of the duration of individual interruptions due to parental leave with other unobserved individually specific factors and non random sample selection. In order to identify the causes of the movements in wages we exploit the panel structure of the data, regional variations in access to child care and female unemployment rates, as well as policy changes, which increased the maximum duration of parental leave from 6 months to 3 years.

E. "A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany," by Charles Bellemare (Discussion Paper 1012, February 2004, .pdf format, 32p.).


This paper estimates a structural dynamic life-cycle model of outmigration where, in each period, immigrants choose whether to work in the host country, not to work but remain in the host country, or outmigrate. The model incorporates several features of existing life-cycle theories of outmigration but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty in about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience. We overcome the problem of not directly observing outmigration movements by using panel attrition as a proxy variable and use a simple method to correct for the fact that part of the attrition is not a consequence of outmigration. Estimates are used to predict changes in life-cycle patterns of outmigration behavior. Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials. Estimated assimilation rates are found to be robust to selection effects. Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations are very sensitive to changes in their economic environment and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

F. "Single Mothers Working at Night: Standard Work, Child Care Subsidies, and Implications for Welfare Reform," by Erdal Tekin (Discussion Paper 1014, February 2004, .pdf format, 41p.).


Using a data set from the post welfare reform environment (the 1999 National Survey of America's Families), this paper investigates the impact of child care subsidies on the standard work (i.e., work performed during the traditional work hours of 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. through Monday and Friday) decision of single mothers and tests whether this impact differs between welfare recipients and nonrecipients. The econometric strategy accounts for sample selection into the labor force and the potential endogeneity of child care subsidy receipt and welfare participation. Results suggest that child care subsidies are associated with a 6 percentage point increase in the probability of single mothers working at standard jobs. When the impact of subsidies is allowed to differ between welfare recipients and non-recipients, results indicate that welfare recipients are 14 percentage points more likely to work at standard jobs than others when they are offered a child care subsidy. Among non-recipients, child care subsidies increase standard work probability by only 1 percentage point. These results underscore the importance of child care subsidies helping low-income parents, especially welfare recipients, find jobs with conventional or standard schedules and lend support to the current practice of states giving priority to welfare recipients for child care subsidies. Results are found to be robust to numerous specification checks.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

B. click on "browse by publication"
C. Click the "fax/ariel" radio button, type the Journal Name in the "by words in the title" search box and click "search".
D. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

AIDS (Vol. 18, No. 2, 2004).

American Sociological Review (Vol. 68, No. 6, December 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Medical Care Research and Review (Vol. 61, No. 1, March 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Other Journals:

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 159, No. 5, March 2004).

European Journal of Population (Vol. 20, No. 1, 2004).

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University of Chicago Press: _The Sexual Organization of the City_, edited by Edward O. Laumann, Stephen Ellingson, Jenna Mahay, Anthony Paik, and Yoosik Youm (2004, 424p., ISBN 0-226-47031-8, 35 US dollars). For more information, including ordering information see:

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International Association for Social Science Information Service and Technology (IASSIST): "Data Futures: Building on 30 Years of Advocacy," a conference to be held in Madison, Wisconsin, May 25-29, 2004. For more information see:

University of California-Santa Barbara: "SPACE (Spatial Perspectives on Analysis for Curriculum Development) Workshops." "SPACE workshops are intended for instructors of undergraduate students in the social sciences. They offer content knowledge in methods of spatial analysis, instructional resources, and professional development support for curriculum planning and learning assessment." For more information see:

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Roper Center (University of Connecticut): "Data Library Coordinator: The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research." For more information, see:

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National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES): "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Center for Health Statistics announces the availability of item names and SAS input code to work with the legacy datasets from NHES I-III, HHANES, and NHANES 1-2. Please look at the new links for SAS code and Formatted SAS Code next to most of the datasets." They can be found on the NHANES website at:







For information on SAS conventions (.pdf format, 5p.):

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Population and Health InfoShare: PHI, administered by the Population Reference Bureau, is "a library of electronic documents created by partner organizations working in reproductive and child health, HIV/AIDS, and population featuring: easy access to key research findings; analysis by leading thinkers; e-mail document delivery; and customized e-mail updates by topic and region."

More information about PHI:

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706