Current Demographic Research Report #24, March 22, 2004.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau Report, News Releases
National Center for Health Statistics, Reports, Report Companion Tables
Centers for Disease Control Periodical, Periodical Article
Food and Drug Administration Report
National Center for Education Statistics Report
Bureau of Labor Statistics News Release
Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Report
US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
World Health Organization Report
_Demographic Research_ Article
Urban Institute Reports
Kaiser Family Foundation Reports
Info Health Pop. Reporter
National Longitudinal Survey Bibliography Update


National Bureau of Economic Research
Population Council
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Kennedy School of Government
London School of Economics
German Institute for Economic Research


Other Journals


National Center for Health Statistics



Census Bureau Report, News Releases:

A. "Global Population Profile: 2002" (WP-02, March 2004, .pdf format, 226p.). Note: The report is linked to from a Census Bureau news release:"Global Population in 2002 Tops 6.2 Billion" (CB04-48, Mar. 22, 2004).

Click on "Global Population Profile: 2002" for full text.

B. "Children and the Households They Live In: 2000," by Terry Lugaila and Julia Overturf (Census 2000 Special Reports CENSR-14, February 2004, .pdf format, 19p.). The report is linked to from a Census Bureau news release:"Census Bureau Reports on Children and Their Homes" (CB04-41, Mar. 16, 2004).

Click on "Children and the Households They Live In: 2000" for full text. The news release also links to seven detailed tables (Microsoft Excel, .pdf, and comma separated value [.csv] format).

C. "Census Bureau Projects Tripling of Hispanic and Asian Populations in 50 Years; Non-Hispanic Whites May Drop To Half of Total Population" (CB04-44, Mar. 18, 2004). Note: The news release links to four summary population projection tables (Microsoft Excel, .pdf and comma separated value [.csv] format.

National Center for Health Statistics, Reports, Report Companion Tables:

A. "Reproduction Rates for 1990-2002 and Intrinsic Rates for 2000-2001: United States," by Brady E. Hamilton (National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 52, No. 17, March 2004, .pdf format, 12p.). Note: The report is linked to from a NCHS news release: "New Report Presents Rates of Reproduction for 1990-2002 and Latest U.S. Intrinsic Rates" (Mar. 18, 2004).

Click on "View/download PDF" for full text.

B. "National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2002 Emergency Department Summary," by Linda F. McCaig and Catharine W. Burt (Advance Data From Vital and Health Statistics No. 340, March 2004, .pdf format, 36p.). Note: The report is linked to from a NCHS news release: "CDC Releases Latest Data on Emergency Department Visits" (Mar. 18, 2004).

Click on "View/download PDF" for full text.

C. "Health Behaviors of Adults, 1999-2001, Series 10, No. 219, March 2004, .pdf format, 58p.).

Click on "Companion Tables."

Centers for Disease Control Periodical, Periodical Article:

A. _Preventing Chronic Disease_ (Vol. 1, No. 2, April 2004, HTML and .pdf format).

Note: This is a temporary address. When the next _PCD_ is released, this one, along with all others, will be available at:

B. "Trends in Tuberculosis --- United States, 1998--2003" (_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 53, No. 10, Mar. 19, 2004, HTML and .pdf format, p. 209-214).



Food and Drug Administration Report: "Innovation or Stagnation? -- Challenge and Opportunity on the Critical Path to New Medical Products" (March 2004, .pdf format, 31p.). The report is linked to from an FDA news release: "Advancing Americas Health. Advancing Medical Breakthroughs. 'Critical Path' Paper Calls for Academic Researchers, Product Developers, and Patient Groups To Work With FDA To Help Identify Opportunities to Modernize Tools for Speeding Approvable, Innovative Products To Improve Public Health" (P04-30, Mar. 16, 2004).

Click on "report" in the first sentence of the news release for link to full text.

National Center for Education Statistics Report: "Kindergarten Teachers: Public and Private School Teachers of the Kindergarten Class of 1998-99," by Elvira Germino Hausken, Jill Walston and Amy H. Rathbun (NCES 2004060, February 2004, .pdf format, 58p.).


This report describes kindergarten teachers in public and private schools across the United States. The report describes the demographic characteristics and professional qualifications of these teachers according to various characteristics of the schools and classrooms in which they teach. The characteristics of kindergarten teachers working in public schools with different concentrations of lower income children are examined in greater detail. This information comes from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99.

Bureau of Labor Statistics News Release: "Work Stoppages in 2003" (Mar. 19, 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 6p.).

Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Report: "Juvenile Suicides, 1981-1998," by Howard N. Snyder and Monica H. Swahn (OJJDP Youth Violence Research Bulletin NCJ 196978, March 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 7p.).


Examines mortality statistics compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, comparing the characteristics of juvenile suicides with those of juvenile murders. This OJJDP Bulletin, part of the Youth Violence Research Series, reveals that suicide was the fourth leading cause of death for juveniles ages 7-17, behind accidental deaths, homicides, and cancer. More than 20,000 juveniles committed suicide between 1981 and 1998, almost as many as were victims of homicide during the same period.

US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service: "Persistence and Change in the Food Security of Families With Children, 1997-99," by Sandra L. Hofferth (Food and Nutrition Assistance Program E-FAN-04-001, March 2004, .pdf format, 27p.).


This report uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine the prevalence of and changes in food security between 1997 and 1999 among individual families with children younger than 13. About half of the families that were food insecure in 1997 became food secure by 1999, with the rest remaining food insecure. Meanwhile, about 7 percent of the families who were food secure in 1997 became food insecure in 1999. Although the food security status for individual families changed substantially, the prevalence of food insecurity was relatively stable: In both years, about 1 family in 10 was food insecure. The report also examines families' characteristics, income, and Food Stamp Program participation.

World Health Organization Report: "Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance in the World, Report No. 3," by Mohamed Abdel Aziz, Abigail Wright, Aime De Muynck, and Adalbert Laszlo (2004, .pdf format).

Click on "Download PDFs" at the bottom of the page for links to full text. There is also a link to a WHO press release: "Drug resistant tuberculosis levels ten times higher in Eastern Europe and Central Asia" (Mar. 16, 2004).

_Demographic Research_ Article: Note: _DR_ is " a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research [Rostock, Germany]. "Fertility behaviour of recent immigrants to Israel: A comparative analysis of immigrants from Ethiopia and the former Soviet Union," by Petra Nahmias (Vol. 10, Art. 4, March 2004, .pdf format, p. 84-120).


The fertility practices of immigrants are a particularly interesting field of study for demographers, providing an insight into the fertility behaviour of individuals when both the society and the individual undergo a period of rapid change. This paper describes and compares the fertility behaviour of two large groups of immigrants, from the former Soviet Union (FSU) and from Ethiopia to Israel in the last 20 years. The changes in fertility behaviour undergone in the same society and at the same time by two very different groups are examined. The findings reveal that the fertility behaviour of immigrants is indeed changing. The fertility of FSU immigrants is increasing and that of the Ethiopian immigrants decreasing, with accompanying changes in the proximate determinants of fertility. Although the fertility of immigrants is becoming more similar to that of the receiving society, the methods employed to achieve the fertility change are not necessarily similar, and, in some cases, diverge from the norms of the receiving society.

Click on "Enter".

Urban Institute Reports:

A. "Relationship Between Tax Entry Thresholds and Poverty," by Elaine Maag (from Tax Policy Center _Tax Notes_, March 2004, HTML and .pdf format, p 1413.).

B. "Trends in Parents' Economic Hardship," by Sandi Nelson (Snapshots of America's Families III No. 21, Mar. 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 2p.).

C. "Race, Ethnicity, and Health," by Kenneth Finegold and Laura Wherry (Snapshots of America's Families III No. 20, Mar. 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 4p.).

D. "Race, Ethnicity, and Economic Well-Being," by (Snapshots of America's Families III No. 19, Mar. 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 2p.).

E. "A Portrait of Prisoner Reentry in Texas," by Jamie Watson, Amy L. Solomon, Nancy G. La Vigne, Jeremy Travis, Meagan Funches, Barbara Parthasarathy (March 2004, .pdf format, 104p.). Note: The report is linked to from an _UI_ news release: "As Texas's Prison Population Experiences Five-Fold Growth Since 1980, Urban Centers Contend with Influx of Former Inmates" (Mar. 19, 2004).

Click on "A Portrait of Prisoner Reentry in Texas" in the last paragraph of the news release for full text.

Kaiser Family Foundation Reports:

A. "California Employer Health Benefits Survey, 2003" (March 2003, chartpack, .pdf format, 46p.). "A survey of California employers released by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research and Educational Trust (HRET) shows that premiums for employer sponsored health insurance increased 15.8% in 2003, higher than the national average increase of 13.9% and nearly seven times the rate of inflation. Over the past three years, total premiums for family coverage in California increased by almost 42%. Workers contributions for family coverage increased by nearly 70%.

B. "Survey Briefs to Explore Attitudes and Experiences of Hispanics in the U.S" (March 2004, .pdf format). "In 2002 the Pew Hispanic Center and the Kaiser Family Foundation conducted a national survey of Latinos, which explored the attitudes and experiences of the Hispanic population in the United States on topics such as identity, assimilation, discrimination, and health care. Five new survey briefs are now available that further examine the findings from the 2002 survey." They are: Latinos in California, Texas, New York, Florida, and New Jersey; Generational Differences, Health Care Experiences, Bilingualism, and Assimilation and Language (all .pdf format).

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 4, No. 12, Mar. 22, 2004). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

National Longitudinal Survey Bibliography Update: Note: These citations, along with all of the NLS bibliography, can be found at:

Note: This reference represents updated citations from Feb. 27 - Mar. 19, 2004.

Bayesian Analysis of An Econometric Model of Birth Inputs and Outputs
Journal of Population Economics 16 (2003): 597-625. Also:
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
ID Number: 4502
Publisher: Springer-Verlag

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National Bureau of Economic Research: "Mortality Risk and Educational Attainment of Black and White Men,"by Li Gan and Guan Gong (w10381, March 2004, .pdf format, 26p.).


This paper investigates to what extent the differences in education between black and white men can be explained by the differences in their mortality risks. A dynamic optimal stopping-point life cycle model is examined, in which group-level mortality risk plays an important role in determining individual-level mortality risk, health expenditure,and the amount of schooling. The model is calibrated to quantify the effect of mortality risks on schooling by taking the black and white male population as the respective reference groups for black men and white men. We find that the impact of mortality risk on schooling explains more than two-thirds of the empirical education differences between black and white males. This conclusion is robust to a set of plausible parameter values.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

Population Council:

A. "Popular perceptions of emerging influences on mortality and longevity in Bangladesh and West Bengal," by Sajeda Amin and Alaka M. Basu (Working Paper 186, 2004, .pdf format, 21p.).


Although new environmental and pathological threats to human survival and longevity have been documented, relatively little is known about how these threats are perceived in the popular imagination. During fieldwork in rural Bangladesh and West Bengal, India, researching the changing costs of and motivations for reproduction, the authors included survey questions on respondents perceptions of changing mortality. Child-mortality levels were perceived to have fallen drastically in recent times, but for the middle-aged and the elderly, the past was seen as a better time in terms of health and survival. The decline in adult health is attributed to environmental deterioration and lifestyle changes associated with modernization. This paper explores the objective validity of and subjective reasons for this unexpected worldview. References to pesticides and chemical fertilizers as causes of death abound, but mention of other emerging health threats including the HIV/AIDS pandemic, dengue, and toxic levels of arsenic in the water table is conspicuously absent.

Click on "Download the full Working Paper in PDF format" for full text.

B. "Trends and transitions in children's coresidence with older adults in Beijing municipality," by Zachary Zimmer, Xianghua Fang, Toshiko Kaneda, Zhe Tang, and Julia Kwong (Working Paper 187, 2004, .pdf format, 29p.).


This paper examines a) whether rates of coresidence between older adults and their adult children in the Beijing municipality of China have been declining, and b) the determinants of coresidence and coresidence transitions. The reduction in family size in China and concurrent social and economic change are raising concerns that traditional sources of support may be eroding. Associations with family size and other determinants that fit within categories of availability and need for support, and demographic characteristics, are tested. Data come from a longitudinal study conducted in Beijing municipality, including urban Beijing and rural surroundings. Results suggest very moderate declines in coresidence of the elderly with children from 1992 to 1997. Family size is modestly associated with coresidence, but other determinants are stronger. The use of time-varying covariates in multi-wave transition modeling shows that changes in some characteristics related to the need for support -- for instance, functional health -- lead to changes in coresidence. Implications for old-age support within an aging China are discussed.

Click on "Download the full Working Paper in PDF format" for full text.

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [Bonn, Germany]:

A. "Determinants of Income Mobility and Household Poverty Dynamics in South Africa," by Ingrid Woolard and Stephan Klasen (Discussion Paper No. 1030, February 2004, .pdf format, 37p.).


In this paper we analyse household income mobility dynamics among Africans in South Africa's most populous province, Kwazulu-Natal, between 1993 and 1998. Compared to industrialized and most developing countries, mobility has been quite high, as might have been expected after the transition in South Africa. This finding is robust when measurement error is controlled for. When disaggregating the sources of mobility, we find that demographic changes and employment changes account for a most of the mobility observed which is related to rapidly shifting household boundaries and a very volatile labour market in an environment of high unemployment. Using a multivariate analysis, we see that transitory incomes play a large role. We also find four types of poverty traps, associated with large initial household size, poor initial education, poor initial asset endowment and poor initial employment access that dominate the otherwise observed regression towards to the mean.

Click on "Discussion Paper No. 1030" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

B. "The Effects of Wealth and Income on Subjective Well-Being and Ill-Being," by Bruce Headey and Mark Wooden (Discussion Paper No. 1032, February 2004, .pdf format, 23p.).


The accepted view among psychologists and economists alike is that household income has statistically significant but only small effects on measures of subjective well-being. Income, however, is clearly an imperfect measure of the economic circumstances of households. Using data drawn from the 2001 and 2002 waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, this paper demonstrates that wealth, which can be viewed as providing a degree of economic security, is at least as important to well-being and ill-being as income.

Click on "Discussion Paper No. 1032" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

C. " Unwilling or Unable? Spatial, Institutional and Socio-Economic Restrictions on Females' Labor Market Access," by Maarten van Ham and Felix Buchel (Discussion Paper No. 1034, February 2004, .pdf format, 22p.).


We analyze the effects of regional structures on both females willingness to work and the probability of being employed for those willing to work. Special permission was granted to link regional data to individual respondents in the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Results of a bivariate probit model correcting for sample selection show that high regional unemployment discourages women from entering the labor market. Those who are willing to work find it easier to do so if living in regions with low regional unemployment rates, short distances to the next agglomeration, and -- for mothers -- a high density of childcare provision.

Click on "Discussion Paper No. 1034" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

D. "Transition Patterns for the Welfare Reliance of Low Income Mothers in Australia," by Xiaodong Gong (Discussion Paper No. 1047, March 2004, .pdf format, 25p.).


This paper analyzes the mobility of low income mothers in Australia between two groups of governmental transfer payments: Income support payments (IS) and Family Payments (FP, non-income support payments) only. While IS payments are to provide a subsistence of living for her, FP payments are to help low-medium income families with the costs of dependent children. We use a dynamic multinomial logit panel data model with random effects, explaining the reliance of each individual on the income support system during each quarter between 1997 and 2000. The data is drawn from the FaCS 1% Longitudinal Data Set (LDS), a sample of fortnightly administrative records of welfare payments in Australia. We find that both state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity play significant roles. We also find that single mothers and females with partners on income support payments are much more likely to be on income support than otherwise.

Click on "Discussion Paper No. 1047" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

E. "Using Analysis of Gini (ANoGi) for Detecting Whether Two Sub-Samples Represent the Same Universe: The SOEP Experience," by Joachim R. Frick, Jan Goebel, Edna Schechtman, Gert G. Wagner, Shlomo Yitzhaki (Discussion Paper No. 1049, Mar. 2004, .pdf format, 38p.).


A particular shortcoming of panel surveys is potential bias arising from selective attrition. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) we analyze potential artifacts (level, structure, inequality of income) by comparing results from two independently drawn panel sub-samples, started in 1984 and 2000, respectively. Both sub-samples carried on using the same set of follow-up rules. We apply ANOGI (ANalysis Of GIni) techniques, the equivalent of ANOVA (ANalysis Of VAriance) performed on the basis of the Gini coefficient. The decomposition followed is presented in Yitzhaki (1994). We rearrange, reinterpret and use the decomposition in the comparison of sub-populations from which the different subsamples were drawn. Taking into account indicators for income, and for control purposes those for education and satisfaction as well, significant differences between these two subsamples with respect to (income) inequality are found in the first year, which start to fade away in wave 2 and disappear in wave 3. We find credible indication for these differences to be driven by changes in response behavior of short term panel members rather than by attrition among members of the longer running sub-sample.

Click on "Discussion Paper No. 1049" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

F. "The Impact of Family-Friendly Policies in Denmark and Sweden on Mothers' Career Interruptions Due to Childbirth," by Elina Pylkkanen and Nina Smith (Discussion Paper No. 1050, March 2004, .pdf format, 33p.).


We analyze the impact of family-friendly policies on women's career breaks due to childbirth in Denmark and Sweden. In both countries, the labour force attachment of mothers is high, and more than 90% of the women return to work after childbirth. Sweden and Denmark are culturally similar and pursued family policies. The impact of family policy variables on the probability of returning to the labour market is estimated using a duration model approach. Our results show that economic incentives and leave periods of the fathers affect the behaviour of mothers in both countries. However, family policy instruments are found to have a much larger impact on Swedish mothers' behaviour compared to Danish women. We explain this finding by the fact that family-friendly policies in Sweden have focused much more on flexible leave schemes and on the shared responsibilities of the parents than in Denmark.

Click on "Discussion Paper No. 1050" at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

Kennedy School of Government (Harvard University): "The Spread of Single-Parent Families in the United States since 1960," by David T. Ellwood and Christopher Jencks (RWP04-008, February 2004, .pdf format, 44p.).


About half of all American children can expect to live with both of their biological parents at age fifteen, compared to two-thirds of children born in Sweden, Germany, and France, and nine-tenths of those born in Italy. This form of American exceptionalism reflects both higher rates of divorce and higher rates of breakup among cohabiting couples in the US. The increase in divorce, which began in the early 1960s but leveled off in the early 1980s, affected women at all educational levels. The increase in nonmarital childbearing, which was concentrated between the early 1960s and early 1990s, mainly affected non-white women and white women without college degrees. These changes appear to be a product of changes in sexual mores, which reduced the role of sexual attraction and increased the importance of economic calculations in decisions about whether to marry. The increased importance of economic factors coincided with a decline in non-college men's ability to support a family and perhaps also with an increase in conflict over men and women's roles.

Click on PDF icon for full text.

London School of Economics Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion: "Income Dynamics and the Life Cycle," by John Rigg and Tom Sefton (CASEpaper 81, February 2004, .pdf format, 41p.).

This paper argues that our understanding of income and poverty dynamics benefits from taking a life cycle perspective. A persons age and family circumstances -- the factors that shape their life cycle -- affect the likelihood of experiencing key life events, such as partnership formation, having children, or retirement; this in turn affects their probability of experiencing rising, falling, or other income trajectories. Using ten waves of the British Household Panel Survey, we analyse the income trajectories of people at different stages in their lives in order to build a picture of income dynamics over the whole life cycle. We find that particular life events are closely associated with either rising or falling trajectories, but that there is considerable heterogeneity in income trajectories following these different events. Typically, individuals experiencing one of these life events are around twice as likely to experience a particular income trajectory, but most individuals will not follow the trajectory most commonly associated with that life event. This work improves our understanding of the financial impact of different life events and provides an indication of how effectively the welfare state cushions people against the potentially adverse impact of certain events.

German Institute for Economic Research [Berlin]: "Child Care Costs and Mothers' Labor Supply: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," by Katharina Wrolich (Discussion Paper 412, March 2004, .pdf format, 25p.).


This study analyzes the effect of child care costs on the labor supply of mothers with preschool children in Germany using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (2002). Child care costs are estimated on the basis of a sample selection model. A structural household utility model, which is embedded in a detailed tax-benefit microsimulation model, is used for labor supply estimation. In contrast to a previous German study, I find significant effects of child care costs on mothers labor supply. Compared to other countries such as the US, Canada or the UK, the effects are rather small, which can be explained by the fact that child care costs are already heavily subsidized in Germany.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

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Journal of Biosocial Science (Vol. 36, No. 2, 2004).

Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 112, No. 1, 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Journal of Public Health Policy (Vol. 24, No. 3/4, 2003).

Population Studies (Vol. 58, No. 1, March 2004).

Other Journals:

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 159, No. 7, Apr. 2004).

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National Center for Health Statistics: NCES is offering several training workshops in the near future, covering such surveys as ECLS-K, NAEP, NELS, PIRLS, and SASS & TFS. For more information about these databases, as well as the training sessions, see:

Scroll to "Upcoming Workshops & Training".

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706