Current Demographic Research Report #25, March 29, 2004.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau Reports
National Center for Health Statistics Reports
Centers for Disease Control Periodical
National Science Foundation InfoBrief
National Center for Education Statistics Report
Bureau of Labor Statistics News Release
Department of Housing and Urban Development Report
United Nations Population Division Report
Carolina Population Center MEASURE Monograph
Kaiser Family Foundation Issue Briefs
Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical
Luxemburg Income Study Newsletter
Info Health Pop Reporter
National Longitudinal Survey Bibliography Update


University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty
University of Washington Center for the Study of Demography and Ecology
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Spain] Business Economics Series
Center for Global Development




National Longitudinal Study


House Committee on Education and the Workforce Hearing Publication



Census Bureau Reports:

A. "Geographical Mobility: 2002 to 2003," by Jason P. Schacter (Population Characteristics P20-549, March 2004, .pdf format, 15p.). The report is linked to from a Census Bureau news release: "Moving Rates Lowest in 50+ Years, Census Bureau Reports" (CB04-47, Mar. 23, 2004).

Click on "Geographical Mobility: 2002 to 2003" for full text. Click on"Detailed tables" at top right of page for links to 35 sets of related tables (Microsoft Excel, .pdf, and comma separated value [.csv] format).

B. "The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century," by Karen A. Stanecki (International Population Reports WP/02-2, March 2004, .pdf format, 56p.).

C. "First 2002 Economic Census Report." The Census Bureau has issued the first data from the Economic Census of 2002. Refer to this page for new releases as they become available.

National Center for Health Statistics Reports:

A. "Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Children: National Health Interview Survey, 2002," by A.N. Dey, J.S. Schiller, and D.A. Tai (Vital and Health Statistics Vol. 10, No. 221, March 2004, .pdf format, 78p.).

B. "Early Release of Health Insurance Estimates Based on Data From the January-September 2003 National Health Interview Survey 1Health Insurance Coverage: Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-September 2003," by Robin A. Cohen, Zakia Coriaty-Nelson, and Hanyu Ni (March 2004, .pdf format, 13p.).

C. "Early Release of Selected Estimates Based on Data From the January-September 2003 National Health Interview Survey" (March 2004, .pdf format, 84p.).

Centers for Disease Control Periodical: _Emerging Infectious Diseases_ (Vol. 10, No. 4, April 2004, HTML and .pdf format).

Note: This is a temporary address. When the next _EID_ is released, this one, along with all others, will be available at:

National Science Foundation InfoBrief: "Plans for Postdoctoral Research Appointments Among Recent U.S. Doctorate Recipients," by Susan T. Hill, Thomas B. Hoffer, and Mary J. Golladay (NSF 04-308, March 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 5p.).

National Center for Education Statistics Report: "The High School Transcript Study: A Decade of Change in Curricula and Achievement, 1990-2000," by Robert Perkins, Brian Kleiner, Stephen Roey, and Janis Brown (NCES 2004455, March 2004, .pdf format, 131p.).


This report presents findings from the 2000 High School Transcript Study (HSTS 2000) and examines the trends and changes in high school curriculum and student course-taking patterns for the past decade. This publication allows policymakers, researchers, education agencies, and the public to examine the current status of the curricula being offered in public and non-public high schools. The HSTS 2000 collected 20,931 transcripts of students graduating from 277 American high schools. Results from the HSTS 2000 are presented with respect to earned course credits, grade point average, and education achievement, as measured by the National Assessment of Educational Progress 2000 Mathematics and Science assessments. In addition, results are compared across the four High School Transcript Studies between 1990 and 2000 (HSTS 1990, HSTS 1994, HSTS 1998, and HSTS 2000). Findings are presented throughout the report by selected student and school characteristics, including student gender, student race/ethnicity, school type (public vs. nonpublic), and region of the country.

Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation Report: "The Welfare-to-Work Grants Program: Enrollee Outcomes One Year After Program Entry," by Thomas M. Fraker, Dan M. Levy, Robert B. Olsen, Rita A. Stapulonis (February 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 159p.).

Click on "printer friendly" at the bottom of the page for link to .pdf version.

Bureau of Labor Statistics News Release: "Occupational Injuries and Illnesses By Selected Characteristics: 2002" (March 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 23p.).

Department of Housing and Urban Development Report: "Housing Assistance and the Effects of Welfare Reform: Evidence from Connecticut and Minnesota," by Nandita Verma and James A. Riccio (September 2003, .pdf format, 124p.).

United Nations Population Division Report: "World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision: Data Tables and Highlights (March 2004, .pdf format, 185p.). "On 24 March 2004, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division released its 2003 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects. This Revision presents estimates and projections of the total, urban and rural populations of the world, its 21 regions and five major areas for the period 1950-1030, as well as for the 228 countries or areas of the world. It also provides estimates and projections of the population of urban agglomerations with 750,000 inhabitants or more in 2000. The population figures for the total population are consistent with the size of each country as estimated or projected with the 2002 Revision of World Population Prospects."

Click on "Data Table and Highlights" for link to full text. Note: Corresponding electronic datasets are available for a fee.

Carolina Population Center MEASURE (Monitoring and Evaluation to Assess and Use Results) Monograph: "Zambia Sexual Behaviour Survey 2003" (Zambia Central Statistical Office, US Agency for International Development, and MEASURE Evaluation TR-04-19, March 2004, .pdf format, 118p.). Note: A print copy can be obtained free of charge by sending an email request to:

Kaiser Family Foundation 2001 Women's Health Survey and Issue Briefs: "The Kaiser Women's Health Survey was designed to better understand how the health system is working for women, in terms of health coverage, access to services, and in meeting their health needs. The survey also highlights the special challenges facing different groups of women, including women of color, those who are low-income, and those who are uninsured. This nationally representative telephone survey was administered to 3,966 women ages 18 to 64 in the Spring and Summer of 2001." The newly released issue briefs are: "Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Womens Health Coverage and Access to Care," (March 2004,.pdf format, 8p.) and "Health Coverage and Access Challenges for Low-Income Women" (March 2004, .pdf format, 4p.).

Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical: _Guttmacher Report on Public Policy_ (Vol. 7, No. 1, March 2004, HTML and .pdf format).

Luxemburg Income Study Newsletter: The latest issue, Vol. 14, No. 2, Winter 2004 (.pdf format, 9p.) is available from the LIS website.

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 4, No. 13, Mar. 29, 2004). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

National Longitudinal Survey Bibliography Update: Note: These citations, along with all of the NLS bibliography, can be found at:

Note: This reference represents updated citations from Mar, 22 - Mar. 26, 2004.

Tracking Women's Transition to Adulthood: High School Experiences, Race/Ethnicity, and the Early Life Course Outcomes of Schooling
Ph.D. Dissertation, The University of Arizona, 2003. DAI-A 64/09, p. 3496,
Mar 2004
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4503
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information
and Learning

Race/Gender Economic Inequality: The Confluence of Residential and
Occupational Segregation
Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Michigan 2003. DAI-A 64/06, p. 2267, Dec
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4504
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information
and Learning

Multiple Imputation for Nonignorable Dropout Using Bayesian
Pattern-Mixture Models
Ph.D. Dissertation, The Pennsylvania State University, 2003. DAI-B 64/09,
p. 4442, Mar 2004
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4505
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information
and Learning

Evaluating Early Childhood Interventions: Lessons from Head Start
Ph.D. Dissertation, Cornell University, 2003. DAI-A 64/09, p. 3416, Mar
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
ID Number: 4506
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information
and Learning

Incarceration, Social Bonds, and the Lifecourse
Ph.D. Dissertation, Michigan State University, 2003. DAI-A 64/08, p. 3078,
Feb 2004
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4507
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information
and Learning

Non-Standard Work Hours and the Relationship Quality of Dual-Earner
Ph.D. Dissertation, The Ohio State University, 2003. DAI-A 64/06, p. 2272,
Dec 2003
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4508
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information
and Learning

Three Essays on Applied Economics
Ph.D. Dissertation, The Pennsylvania State University, 2003. DAI-A 64/09,
p. 3416, Mar 2004
Cohort(s): NLSY97
ID Number: 4509
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information and Learning

Essays in Labor and Trade
Ph.D. Dissertation, University Of California, Berkeley, 2003. DAI-A 64/09,
p. 3417, Mar 2004
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4510
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information and Learning

The Use and Prevalence of Contingent Work Arrangements in the United States
Ph.D. Dissertation, University Of South Carolina, 2003. DAI-A 64/07, p.
2603, Jan 2004
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4511
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information and Learning

Unemployment Insurance and Job Quits
Journal of Labor Economics 22,1 (January 2004):159-189. Also:
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4512
Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Accidents Will Happen?: Unintentional Childhood Injuries and the Effects of Child Care Regulations
Journal of Health Economics 23,1 (January 2004): 25-60. Also:
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4513
Publisher: Elsevier Science

Legal Minimum Wages and Employment Duration
Southern Economic Journal 70,3 (January 2004): 631-646. Also:
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4514
Publisher: Southern Economic Association

Sibling Influence on Smoking Behavior: A within-Family Look at Explanations for a Birth-Order Effect
Journal of Applied Social Psychology 33,9 (September 2003): 1773-1795.
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4515
Publisher: Bellwether Publishing, Ltd.

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University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty: "Intimate Partner Violence and Child Maltreatment: Understanding Co-occurrence and Intergenerational Connections," by Lynette M. Renner and Kristen Shook Slack (Discussion Paper DP-1278-04, March 2004, .pdf format, 29p.).


Low-income adult women were interviewed regarding their experiences with intimate partner violence and child maltreatment during childhood and adulthood, and intra- and intergenerational relationships between different forms of family violence were identified. Analyses demonstrated weak to moderate associations across multiple forms of violence within generations. Only weak support was found for the transmission of violence hypothesis, according to which maltreated children are more likely to grow up to maltreat their own children. Stronger support was found for the theory of learned helplessness, whereby children maltreated or witness to violence during childhood are more likely to be victimized as an adult. The results from this study suggest that interventions with children who are identified for one form of victimization should be assessed for other forms of victimization, and interventions should also address learned behaviors associated with continued or future victimization.

University of Washington Center for the Study of Demography and Ecology:

A. "Comparison of Specific Gravity and Creatinine Methods for Normalizing Urinary Reproductive Hormone Concentrations," by Rebecca C. Miller, Eleanor Brindle, Darryl J. Holman, Jane Shofer, Nancy A. Klein, Michael R. Soules, and Kathleen A. OConnor (WP 04-02, February 2004, .pdf format, 26p.).


Specific gravity (SG) may perform as well as creatinine (CR) correction for adjusting urinary hormone concentrations, as well as offer some advantages. We compared the two methods and applied them to US and Bangladeshi specimens to evaluate their use in different populations. Methods: Pearson correlations between serum concentrations and SG, CR, and uncorrected urinary concentrations were compared using paired daily urine and serum specimens from one menstrual cycle from 30 US women. Corrected urinary estrone conjugate (E1C) and pregnanediol glucuronide (PDG) concentrations were compared with serum estradiol (E2) and progesterone (P4). Urine specimens across one menstrual cycle from 13 Bangladeshi women were used to evaluate the applicability of both methods to a non-industrialized population. Linear mixed effects models were used to compare CR and SG gravity values in the Bangladeshi vs. US specimens. There was no significant difference between SG corrected vs. serum and CR corrected vs. serum correlations for either assay. Usable CR results were obtained for all US specimens, but 37% of the Bangladeshi specimens were below the CR assay limit of detection. The Bangladeshi sample had significantly lower CR, and higher inter- and intra-subject CR variability, compared to the US sample. Conclusions: SG is a useful alternative to CR correction for normalizing urinary steroid hormone concentrations, particularly in settings where CR values are highly variable or unusually low. 3Nonstandard Abbreviations: SG, specific gravity; CR, creatinine; B, Bangladeshi sample; E2, estradiol; IFMA, immunoflurometric assay; LH, luteinizing hormone; P4, progesterone; EIA, enzyme immunoassay; PDG, pregnanediol glucuronide; E1C, estrone conjugates

B. "Education and Hypergamy in Marriage Markets," by Elaina Rose (WP 04-03, March 2004, .pdf format, 48p.).


One empirical regularity across many societies is "hypergamy" -- the tendency for women to marry up -- with respect to social status, education, income, and other characteristics associated with economic well-being. This paper introduces hypergamy into an economic analysis of marriage markets. I focus on partners education and use U.S. Census data for 1980, 1990 and 2000, a period over which womens education increased substantially relative to mens. Under constant hypergamy, economic theory predicts that this shift in the education distribution would lead to a worsening of marriage prospects for more educated women and for less educated men. Contrary to recent accounts in the popular media, there was no such worsening for women with high levels of education. In fact, there was a significant decline in the "success gap" -- the difference in the marriage rates of highly educated women relative to those at the peak of the inverted-U-shaped education-marriage profile. A contemporaneous decline in hypergamy allowed the marriage market to absorb the increased number of educated women. However, at the bottom of the education distribution, the imbalance was not resolved by a change in marriage matching patterns. The likelihood of marriage for men with less than a high school education declined precipitously. Womens marriage propensities declined as well, but not nearly as much as mens. In this range, there was an increase in hypergamy, as less educated women reached higher into the education distribution for their husbands in 2000 than in prior cohorts.

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research:

A. "Fertility decisions in the FRG and GDR," by Michaela Kreyenfeld (WP 2004-008, February 2004, .pdf format, 45p.).


The aim of this paper is to compare family policies and fertility patterns in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and the German Federal Republic (FRG). Among other aspects, both societies particularly differed in the integration of women into the labor market. By contrasting the fertility development in these two societies, this paper aims to illuminate how womens education and employment relates to fertility decisions in societal contexts that support (in the case of the GDR) and hamper (in the case of the FRG) the compatibility between work and family life. Data for this analysis comes from the German Fertility and Family Survey (of the year 1992). We provide descriptive statistics for all birth parities, but we limit the multivariate event history analysis to first births only.

B. "Does divorce risk depend on spouses relative income? A register-based study of first marriages in Sweden in 1981-1998," by Guiping Liu and Andres Vikat (WP 2004-010, February 2004, .pdf format, 23p.).

The relationship between increasing women's earnings and rising divorce rates frequently has been explained by the so-called independence effect: If a wife enjoys a higher earning than her husband does, she gains less from marriage. It has also been argued that in a society with egalitarian gender attitudes this effect is less important. In this paper, we test if the independence effect applies to Sweden, a country in which egalitarian gender views dominate and female labor-force participation and divorce rates are high. Our analysis is based on a large register data set and intensity regression models. We found support for the independence effect: The linear relationship between the share of a 01 income and the divorce risk is positive. We also found that the higher the total income of the couple, the lower their divorce risk, but this relationship appears to be less strong.

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [Bonn, Germany]:

A. "A Search Model of Marriage with Differential Fecundity," by Eugenio Giolito (Discussion Paper No. 1082, March 2004, .pdf format, 56p.).


It is commonly observed that over time and across societies, women tend to marry older men. The traditional explanation for this phenomenon is that wages increase with age and hence older men are more attractive in the marriage market. This explanation, however, involves an implicit assumption about female specialization in home production - an assumption that does not completely hold, especially in modern times. This paper shows that a marriage market equilibrium where women marry earlier in life than men can be achieved without making any assumptions about the wage process or gender roles. The only driving force in this model is the asymmetry in fecundity horizons between men and women. When the model is calibrated with Census Data, the average age at first marriage and the pattern of the sex ratio of single men to single women over different age groups mimics the patterns observed in developed countries during the last decade (e.g. France, the U.S. and Sweden).

B. "The Effect of Economic Crises on Nutritional Status: Evidence from Russia," by Steven Stillman and Duncan Thomas (Discussion Paper No. 1092, March 2004, .pdf format, 42p.).


This paper uses data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to examine the relationship between nutritional status and both longer-run household resources and short-run fluctuations in household resources. We evaluate six measures of nutrition -- gross energy intake, two dimensions of diet quality, body mass index (BMI), which is a measure of net energy intake for adults, and for children, weight for height and stature. Our finding indicate a clear positive effect of longer-run resources on energy intake, diet composition, adult BMI, and child stature. Between 1996 and 2000, Russian households experienced a dramatic decline in income and expenditure and then an equally dramatic rise. We exploit the panel nature of RLMS to identify the causal effect of changes in household resources on nutritional status. In contrast to the large decline in expenditure in 1998, nutritional status appears to be very resilient to variation in household resources and this is reflected in gross energy intake, adult BMI, and child stature, which all change very little as expenditure deviates from its long-run average. Diet composition, however, does change in response to transitory variation in household resources. It appears that individuals and households are able to weather large economic crises at least in terms of maintaining body mass and energy intake.

Centre for Population, Poverty and Public Policy Studies / International Networks for Studies in Technology, Environment, Alternatives, Development (CEPS/INSTEAD) [Differdange, Luxembourg]: "Multidimensional Poverty Comparisons within Europe. Evidence from the European Community Household Panel," by Monica Szeles (WP 2004-05, 2004, .pdf format, 30p.).


This paper is a cross-sectional study on multidimensional poverty comparisons among the European Union countries, based on data provided by the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). In addition to the empirical results and the methodological problems, the study underlines the opportunities and the difficulties met while using the ECHP. The extended concept of poverty is relative and multidimensional and it reflects not only the financial aspects, but also dimensions like family composition, leisure, subjective deprivation, social participation, durable goods, housing conditions, access to education. Hence, it requires comparative assessments through ordinal measures. In order to compare the multidimensional poverty in 1999 and in a time interval (1994-1999), we have applied the Totally Fuzzy and Relative Method (TFR) in two forms: original (Cheli and Lemmi, 1995) and alternative (Cheli, D'Agostino and Filippone, 2001). The research reveals the hierarchy of countries according to different indicators of poverty. Although the rankings given by the two methods are similar in some parts, there are differences establishing the issues which arise when different features of deprivation are aggregated into a collective index. We show that the variables taken into account, the method and its interpretability, the data and the national particularities, they all have a big influence on the relative and comparative measurement of poverty.

Click on "Download info" for link to full text.

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Spain] Business Economics Series:"Career breaks of women due to family reasons: A long-term perspective using retrospective data," by Miguel A. Malo and Fernando Munoz-Bullon (WP 04-18 [08], March 2004, .pdf format, 29p.).


In this article, we analyse whether family-related quits present long-term effects upon womens careers, and the magnitude of such effects. For this purpose, the impact of family- related breaks in the first ten years of their labour careers on three measures of occupational prestige is examined, using the British Household Panel Survey. Women who are intermittently attached to the labour market are found to work, on average, in occupations associated to significantly lower prestige levels. In particular, additional family-related interruptions have a negative impact that becomes persistent and cumulative. Moreover, the observed decrease in prestige levels is enhanced by the length of job separations.

Center for Global Development: "The Long Walk to School: International education goals in historical perspective," by Michael Clemens (Working Paper 37, March 2004, .pdf format, 74p.).


Raising school enrollment, like economic development in general, takes a long time. This is partly because, as a mountain of empirical evidence now shows, economic conditions and slowly- changing parental education levels determine children's school enrollment to a greater degree than education policy interventions. A succession of international meetings has nevertheless adopted a litany of utopian international goals for universal school enrollment and gender parity in education based on the idea that a correct education policy backed by sufficient cash could achieve the goals in short order. The latest of these, the Millennium Development Goals, call for universal primary schooling and full gender parity by 2015. This work quantifies how long it has taken countries rich and poor to make the transition towards high enrollments and gender parity. There are three central lessons. First, there is a remarkable uniformity of experience in the rates of enrollment increases, a reality from which the various rounds of goals appear entirely detached. Second, many countries that have not raised enrollments fast enough to meet the goals have in fact raised enrollments extraordinarily rapidly by historical standards and deserve celebration rather than condemnation. The very few poor countries that have raised enrollment figures at the rates envisioned by the goals have done so in many cases by accepting dramatic declines in schooling quality, failing large numbers of students, or other practices that cast doubt on the sustainability or exportability of their techniques. Third, aid-supported education policies can help within limits, and their performance should be judged in the context of country-specific, historically-grounded goals. But a country's broader development strategy outside the classroom matters much more than education policy.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

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AIDS (Vol. 18, No. 3 and Supplement 1, 2004).

Journal of Health and Social Behavior (Vol. 44, No. 4, 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Milbank Quarterly (Vol. 82, No. 1, 2004).

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National Longitudinal Study: "NLS User's Conference, Summer 2004." "BLS is sponsoring a workshop in Columbus, Ohio, from August 3 - 6, 2004, to teach advanced level graduate students and recent Ph.D. recipients in economics, sociology, demography, public policy and other social sciences how to use data from the various National Longitudinal Surveys. We encourage applications from researchers in academic and nonacademic settings. About 20 - 25 applications will be selected." For more information, including application information, see:

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House Committee on Education and the Workforce Hearing Publication:"Beyond Baccalaureate: Graduate Programs in the Higher Education Act," a hearing held Sep. 9, 2003 (US House Serial Publication 108-30, ASCII text and .pdf format, 42p.).

Scroll to or "find in page" "108-30" (without the quotes).

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706