Current Demographic Research Report #37, June 21, 2004.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


National Center for Health Statistics Report
Centers for Disease Control Periodical
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Statistical Brief
Department of Housing and Urban Development Periodical
General Accounting Office Reports
National Science Foundation Report
World Health Organization Compendium
United Nations Periodical
International Monetary Fund Periodical
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Reports
Reuters Health Article
_Demographic Research_ Article
International Labour Organization Report
Kaiser Family Foundation Report, Fact Sheet
Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical
Urban Institute Brief
Info Health Pop. Reporter


University of Washington Center for the Study of Demography and Ecology
Princeton University Office of Population Research
National Bureau of Economic Research
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market--Maastricht University
Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI)
CIRPEE--McGill University
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)--Essex University




Murray Archives, Radcliffe Institute, Harvard University


ADD Health Update


Census Bureau



National Center for Health Statistics Report: "Estimated Pregnancy Rates for the United States, 1990--2000: An Update," by Stephanie J. Ventura,Joyce C. Abma, William D. Mosher, and Stanley Henshaw (National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 52, No. 23, June 2004, .pdf format, 12p.).

Centers for Disease Control Periodical: _Preventing Chronic Disease_ (Vol. 1, No. 3, July 2004, HTML and .pdf format).

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Statistical Brief: "Outpatient Prescribed Medicines: A Comparison of Use and Expenditures, 1987 and 2001," by Mamatha Pancholi and Marie Stagnitti (Agency for Health Care Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Statistical Brief No. 33, June 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 5p.).

Department of Housing and Urban Development Periodical: _ResearchWorks_ (Vol. 1, No. 4, June 2004, .pdf format, 7p.). "ResearchWorks is the official newsletter of U.S. HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research. ResearchWorks includes new publication announcements, relevant case studies, and success stories highlighting the efforts of those who care about housing, and who work to make it more affordable, more accessible, more energy and resource efficient, and above all, more readily available."

General Accounting Office Reports:

A. "Metropolitan Statistical Areas: New Standards and Their Impact on Selected Federal Programs" (GAO-04-758, June 2004, .pdf format, 97p.).

B. "2010 Census: Overseas Enumeration Test Raises Need for Clear Policy Direction" (GAO-04-470, May 2004, .pdf format, 44p.).

Note: These are temporary addresses. GAO reports are always available at:

National Science Foundation Report: "Women, Minorities, and Persons with Disabilities 2004" (NSF 04-317, May 2004 Microsoft Excel and .pdf format, 292p.). "This site provides data on the participation of women, minorities, and persons with disabilities in science and engineering education and employment. The data are organized by topic and are presented in tables, graphics, and spreadsheets for downloading."

World Health Organization Compendium: "World Health Report 2004 -- Changing History (June 2004, .pdf format, 169p. with annex tables available also in Microsoft Excel format). "This year's report, changing history, calls for a comprehensive HIV/AIDS strategy that links prevention, treatment, care and long-term support. At a crucial moment in the pandemic's history, the international community has an unprecedented opportunity to alter its course and simultaneously fortify health systems for the enduring benefit of all."

Click on "Chapter index" and then "full text" under "download centre" for link to full text.

United Nations Periodical: _Asia-Pacific Population Journal_ (Vol. 19, No. 1, March 2004, .pdf format).

International Monetary Fund Periodical: _Finance and Development_ (Vol. 41, No. 2, June 2004, .pdf format).

Click on "June 2004".

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Reports:

A. "National Public Health Expenditure Report 2000-01" (AIHW HWE-25, June 2004, .pdf format, 147p.). "This is the third comprehensive report on expenditure on public health services in Australia. Most public health activities are aimed at preventing illness and enhancing the wellbeing and quality of a nation's population. That is, what is spent now on public health services is an investment that should result in fewer demands on health services, and better health for the population as a whole, over time. This report examines expenditure by the Australian Government and each State and Territory Government in nine core public health activities, for the period 2000-01."

B. "Children Accompanying Homeless Clients 2002-03" (AIHW HOU-106, June 2004, .pdf format, 45p.). "This report provides an overview and analysis of accompanying children in SAAP (Supported Accommodation Assistance Program) in 2002-03, including their demographic characteristics, patterns of SAAP use and the reasons why their parents or guardians sought SAAP support. There is also information about the services children receive from SAAP agencies, and their living arrangements before and after support. Domestic violence is a major theme of the report, as the majority of children accompany their mother or other female guardian who has reported domestic violence as a reason for seeking SAAP assistance."

Reuters Health Article: "Marital status matters in pregnancy outcome," by Amy Norton (Reuters Health, Jun. 15, 2004).

_Demographic Research_ Article: Note: _DR_ is " a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research." "Children facing economic hardships in the United States Differentials and changes in the 1990s," by Hsien-Hen Lu, Julian Palmer, Younghwan Song, Mary C. Lennon, and J. Lawrence Aber (_Demographic Research_, Vol. 10, Article 11, June 2004, .pdf format, p. 289-338).


This paper helps document significant improvements in the child low-income rate as well as the significant decrease in the proportion of children who relied on public assistance in the United States during the 1990s. Many disadvantaged groups of children were less likely to live in poor or low-income families in the late 1990s than such children a decade earlier. The improvement in the child low-income rates of these disadvantaged groups was accompanied by a substantial increase in parental employment. However, parental employment appears to do less to protect children from economic hardship than it did a decade earlier. This paper shows that working families children in many disadvantaged social groups, especially groups in medium risk ranks--children in families with parents between ages 25 to 29, with parents who only had a high-school diploma, and in father-only families--suffered the largest increase in economic hardship. Our results indicate that the increased odds of falling below low-income lines among children in working families facing multiple disadvantaged characteristics and the increased proportion of these children in various subgroups of working families in the 1990s can help explain the increased economic hardship among subgroups in the medium risk ranks listed above. Finally, the paper also notes that the official measure of poverty tends to underestimate low-income rates.

International Labour Organization Report: "Helping Hands or Shackled Lives? Understanding child domestic labour and responses to it," by June Kane (June 2004, .pdf format, 112p.).

Kaiser Family Foundation Report, Fact Sheet:

A. "Survey of Americans on HIV/AIDS - Part Two: HIV Testing" (June 2004, summary and chartpack, .pdf format, 18p., toplines, .pdf format, 10p.)."These survey findings of Americans views on HIV testing are part of Kaiser's national 'Survey of Americans on HIV/AIDS,' conducted in spring 2004. It explores such issues as how many adults report ever having been tested and talk to their doctor about HIV/AIDS, as well as misconceptions and stigma about HIV testing. The first part of the survey, on global HIV/AIDS, was released on June 2, 2004. The final portion of the survey will be released in August 2004.

B. "Women's Health Insurance Coverage" (Women's Health Policy Program Fact Sheet, June 2004, .pdf format, 2p.). "Health insurance coverage makes health care accessible for millions of women in the United States. This updated fact sheet titled, 'Womens Health Insurance Coverage,' describes the major sources of coverage for women, including employer-sponsored insurance and Medicaid. It also provides information on the nearly 16 million women who are uninsured and summarizes the major policy challenges facing women in the health insurance sector.

Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical: _Guttmacher Report on Public Policy_ (Vol. 7, No. 2, June 2004, HTML and .pdf format).

Urban Institute Brief: "An Equitable Housing Strategy for the District of Columbia," by Margery Austin Turner (Metropolitan Housing and Communities Center Brief No. 1, June 2004, .pdf format, 7p.).

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 4, No. 25, Jun. 21, 2004). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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University of Washington Center for the Study of Demography and Ecology:

A. "Pregnancy-Related Sickness in Rural Bangladesh: Symptoms and Their Links with Reproductive Hormones," by K.A. O'Connor, D.J. Holman, E. Brindle, R.C. Miller, S.H. Barsom, and J.W. Wood (WP 04-07, June 2004, .pdf format, 29p.).


BACKGROUND We undertook a prospective study in rural Bangladesh examining the association between reproductive hormones and nausea, vomiting and dizziness in pregnancy.

METHODS Twice weekly interviews and urine specimens were collected from 203 women across pregnancy. Urinary concentrations of estrone conjugates (E1C), pregnanediol-3-glucuronide (PDG) and hCG were used in a logistic regression to estimate the effect of each hormone on the probability of each symptom.

RESULTS Nausea, vomiting and dizziness observations occurred at relatively low frequencies in the sample: the frequency of vomiting in the first 20 weeks of pregnancy was 8%, nausea was 29% and dizziness 53%. Analysis of 1,232 observations from 115 women in the first twenty weeks of pregnancy revealed no association of E1C, PDG or hCG with nausea or vomiting. The only significant association was increased probability of dizziness with higher levels of hCG.

CONCLUSIONS Urinary E1C, PDG and hCG were not associated with nausea and vomiting in pregnant Bangladeshi women. Dizziness paralleled the timing of nausea and vomiting in pregnancy in the sample, but occurred at higher frequencies than nausea or vomiting, was positively associated with hCG concentration, and may be an additional symptom of pregnancy-related sickness in Bangladeshi women.

B. "The distribution of postpartum amenorrhea in rural Bangladeshi women," by Darryl J. Holman, Michael A. Grimes, Jerusha T. Achterberg, Eleanor Brindle, and Kathleen A. O'Connor (WP 04-08, 2004, .pdf format, 26p.).


Previous studies of postpartum amenorrhea (PPA) have demonstrated distinct subgroups of women with short and long durations of amenorrhea. This phenomena has been attributed to cases where breastfeeding is absent because of pregnancy loss or infant death, or confusion of postpartum bleeding with resumption of menses. We explored these ideas using data from an eleven-month prospective study in Bangladesh in which 858 women provided twice-weekly interviews and urine specimens for up to 9 months; 300 women were observed while experiencing PPA. The resulting exact, interval-censored or right-censored durations were used to estimate parameters of two-component mixture models. A mixture of two Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the observations. The long-duration subgroup made up 84% (4% SE) of the population with a mean duration of 457 (31) days. The short-duration subgroup had a mean duration of 94 (17). Three covariates were associated with the duration of PPA: women whose husbands had high-wage employment had a greater probability of falling in the short-duration subgroup; women whose husbands seasonally migrated had shorter periods of PPA, but only if they would otherwise fall into the long-duration subgroup; and mothers who gave birth during the monsoon season experienced a shortened duration of PPA, but only if they would otherwise fall into the short duration subgroup. We conclude that the bimodal distribution of PPA reflects biological or behavioral heterogeneity rather than shortcomings of data collection.

Princeton University Office of Population Research:

A. "Measurement of Cumulative Physiological Dysregulation in an Older Population," by Christopher L. Seplaki, Noreen Goldman, Maxine Weinstein, and Yu-Hsuan Lin (WP 2004-02, 2004, .pdf format, 31p.).


Theories of allostatic load postulate that an important pathway connecting the social environment with health involves biological responses to stressful stimuli and subsequent dysregulation of interrelated physiological systems. We formulate a new measure for cumulative physiological dysregulation using a grade of membership model estimated with biodemographic data from a national sample of older Taiwanese. We investigate associations between the measure and physical, psychological, and cognitive function. The results provide insights into the relationships between a set of biological profiles and various health outcomes, identify limitations of earlier approaches, and underscore next steps in the development of improved formulations of physiological dysregulation.

B. "Variation in Living Environments Among Community-Dwelling Elders," by Christopher L. Seplaki, Maureen A. Smith, and Burton H. Singer (WP 2004-03, 2004, .pdf format, 32p.).


Introduction: Many studies examine the movement of elderly individuals across living arrangement and institutional care settings, but the rapidly evolving structure of elderly living environments makes traditional measurement paradigms less representative. We investigate the diverse health-related environmental characteristics of noninstitutional elderly living environments in 1993 and their association with health.

Methods: We use the 1993 wave of the Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old (AHEAD) survey, which includes both physical and social characteristics of the living environment for over 7,000 older Americans. Grade of membership (GoM) models are used to summarize variation in social and physical environment characteristics, and examine differences between males and females. We also estimate the cross-sectional association between living environment and several measures of physical and mental health status.

Results: Results illustrate extensive within and between-sex heterogeneity in elderly living environments using five "idealized" environment types, as well as significant associations with physical and mental health status measures.

Conclusion: As older individuals stay in the community for longer periods of time, traditional empirical representations of "home" need to be replaced by definitions of noninstitutional environments that meaningfully represent the social and physical challenges faced by this rapidly growing segment of our population.

National Bureau of Economic Research:

A. "Welfare Reform and Health," by Marianne Bitler, Jonah Gelbach, and Hilary Hoynes (w10549, June 2004, .pdf format, 39p.).


We investigate the relationship between welfare reform and health insurance, health care utilization, and self-reported measures of health status for women aged 20-45, using nationally representative data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We present estimates from both difference-in-difference models (applied to single women and single women with children) and difference-in-difference-in-difference models (using married women and single women without children as comparison groups). We find that welfare reform is associated with reductions in health insurance coverage and specific measures of health care utilization, as well as an increase in the likelihood of needing care but finding it unaffordable. We find no statistically significant effects of reform on health status. Overall, effects are somewhat larger for Hispanics compared to blacks and low educated women.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address for full text.

B. "The Costs of Low Birth Weight," by Douglas Almond, Kenneth Y. Chay, and David S. Lee (w10552, June 2004, .pdf format, 80p.).


Birth weight has emerged as the leading indicator of infant health and welfare and the central focus of infant health policy. This is because low birth weight (LBW) infants experience severe health and developmental difficulties that can impose enormous costs on society. But would the prevention of LBW generate equally sizable cost savings and health improvements? Estimates of the return to LBW-prevention from cross-sectional associations may be biased by omitted variables that cannot be influenced by policy, such as genetic factors. To address this, we compare the hospital costs, health at birth, and infant mortality rates between heavier and lighter infants from all twin pairs born in the United States. We also examine the effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy the leading risk factor for LBW in the United States on health among singleton births after controlling for detailed background characteristics. Both analyses imply substantially smaller effects of LBW than previously thought, suggesting two possibilities: 1) existing estimates overstate the true costs and consequences of LBW by at least a factor of four and by as much as a factor of 20; or 2) different LBW-preventing interventions have different health and cost consequences, implying that policy efforts that presume a single return to reducing LBW will necessarily be suboptimal.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address for full text.

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]:

A. "Gender Differences in Job Assignment and Promotion on a Complexity Ladder of Jobs," by Tuomas Pekkarinen and Juhana Vartiainen (Discussion Paper No. 1184, June 2004, .pdf format, 24p.).


This paper studies gender differences in the allocation of workers across jobs of different complexity using panel data on Finnish metalworkers. These data provide a measure for the complexity of the workers' tasks that can be used to construct a complexity ladder of jobs. We study whether women have to meet higher productivity requirements than men in order to be assigned to more complex tasks. Gender differences in the promotion rates are examined. We use productivity measures that are based on the supervisors' performance evaluations and examine gender differences in the productivity of promoted and non-promoted workers. It is found that women start their careers in less complex tasks than men and that they are also less likely to get promoted than men who start in similar tasks. When we compare the productivity of men and women, both at the initial assignment and when some of these individuals have been promoted, we find that there is no gender-related productivity differential at the time of the initial assignment, but women become on average more productive than men afterwards, both in promoted and non-promoted subsets. The most plausible interpretation of these results is that women face a higher promotion threshold than men.

B. "Educational Achievement in English-Speaking Countries: Do Different Surveys Tell the Same Story?" by John Micklewright and Sylke V. Schnepf (Discussion Paper No. 1186, June 2004, .pdf format, 37p.).


International surveys of educational achievement are typically analysed in isolation from each other with no indication as to whether new results confirm or contradict those from earlier surveys. The paper pulls together results from four surveys to compare average levels of achievement, inequality of achievement, and the correlates of achievement (especially family background) among the six English-speaking OECD countries and between them and countries from Continental Europe. Our aim is to see whether a robust pattern emerges across the different sources: the Trends in International Maths and Science Study (TIMSS), the Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA), the Programme of International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) and the International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS).

Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market--Maastricht University [Netherlands]. "How much does education matter and why? The effects of education on socio-economic outcomes," by Rolf van der Velden and Maarten Wolbers (ROA-RM-2004/2E, May 2004, .pdf format, 24p.).


This article explores the total (measured and unmeasured) effect of education on different socio-economic outcomes. The analysis shows that the usual regression models typically underestimate the effects of education. The effects of education are decomposed into three sources of variation: courses of study, schools and student composition. Schools do not seem to have a large impact. A significant part of the effect of education stems from differential selection of students into courses of study. However, there is a notable difference between social and economic rewards. Apart from level of education, selectivity and specificity of the course of study turn out to affect the labor market outcomes.

Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI) [Stockholm]:

A. "Estimating Long-Term Consequences of Teenage Childbearing - An Examination of the Siblings Approach," by Helena Holmlund (Working Paper 1/2004, March 2004, .pdf format, 32p.).


One of the remedies to selection bias in estimates of the labour market consequences of teenage motherhood has been to estimate within-family effects. A major critique, however, is that heterogeneity within the family might still bias the estimates. Using a large Swedish data set on biological sisters, I revisit the question of the consequences of teenage motherhood. My contribution is that I am able to control for heterogeneity within the family; I use gradepoint-averages at age 16, a pre-motherhood characteristic that differs across sisters within the same family. My findings confirm the presumption that within-family heterogeneity can result in biased within-family estimates. Moreover, my results show that when controlling for school performance, the siblings approach and a traditional cross section yield similar coefficients.

B. "Parental Separation and Children's Educational Attainment: A Siblings Analysis on Swedish Register Data," by Anders Bjorklund and Marianne Sundstrom (Working Paper 4/2004, April 2004, .pdf format, 30p.).


This article analyzes whether the commonly found negative relationship between parental separation in childhood and educational outcomes is causal or mainly due to selection. We use data on about 100,000 Swedish full biological siblings, born in 1948-63, and perform cross-section and sibling-difference estimations. Outcomes are measured as educational attainment in 1996. Our cross-section analysis show the expected negative and significant relationship, while the relationship is not significant, though precisely estimated, in the sibling-difference analysis. This finding was robust to the sensitivity tests performed and is consistent with selection, rather than causation, being the explanation for the negative relationship.

Centre Interuniversitaire sur le Risque, Les Politiques Economiques et l'Emploi (CIRPEE), Department of Economics, McGill University [Montreal, Quebec, Canada]: "The Effect of High School Employment on Educational Attainment in Canada," by Daniel Parent (Working Paper 04-13, June 2004, .pdf format, 26p.).


The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of working in the twelve months preceding the date of leaving high school, either as a graduate or as a dropout, on the probability of graduation. To do so, I use Statistics Canada's 1991 School Leavers Survey and its 1995 Follow-up. Given that both the decision to graduate and the decision to work are endogenous variables, I use local labour market conditions as an exclusion restriction. The results show a strong negative effect of working while in school on the probability of graduation for men. Specification checks show that this negative impact is driven by variations in hours worked induced by favourable local labour market conditions for those working a relatively large number of hours per week. The results for females are somewhat inconclusive due in part to the rejection of the exclusion restrictions.

Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) [Essex University, UK]:

A. "Explaining Interviewee Contact and Co-Operation in the British and German Household Panels," by Cheti Nicoletti and Nicholas N. Buck (Working Paper 2004-6, June 2004, .pdf format, 23p.).


This paper investigates the factors affecting the contact and the co-operation of the interviewees in the British Household Panel Survey, in the German Socio Economic Panel Survey and in the European Community Household Panel for the UK and for Germany. The differences in the contact and co-operation rates between surveys may reflect differences in the composition of the national populations and in data collection processes. The coexistence of two independent panel surveys in the UK and in Germany gives the opportunity to investigate if differentials in the contact and co-operation rates are due to differences in the data collection, personal and household characteristics and/or differences in their impact between countries or between surveys in a same country. If the differentials are explained mainly by differences in the characteristics, and above all data collection characteristics, then it is possible to reduce differentials just by harmonising the data collection. If instead differentials are attributable to heterogeneity in the response behaviour across countries or surveys in a same country, then the harmonisation of the data collection process has a more ambiguous effect. We model the response at individual level as the occurrence of two sequential events: the contact and the co-operation. We explain the contact and the co-operation probabilities in wave t using a set of individual and household characteristics observed in wave t-1, and a set of variables characterising the collection process in wave t and t-1. Moreover, we investigate differences between surveys in the contact and co-operation probabilities by trying to disentangle the part due to differences in the distribution of the explanatory variables and the part due to differences in the model coefficients.

B. "Approximations to b* in the estimation of design effects due to clustering," by Peter Lynn, Siegfried Gabler (Working Paper 2004-7, June 2004, .pdf format, 13p.).


Kish's well-known expression for the design effect due to clustering is often used to inform sample design, using an approximation such as b in place of b. If the design involves either weighting or variation in cluster sample sizes, this can be a poor approximation. In this article we discuss the sensitivity of the approximation to departures from the implicit assumptions and propose an alternative approximation.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

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Journal of Family History (Vol. 29, No. 3, July 2004).

Population Studies (Vol. 58, No. 2, July 2004).

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Murray Archives, Radcliffe Institute, Harvard University:

A. Curator of Collections and Head of Archival Services (posted Jun. 2, 2004). For more information see:

B. "Data Archives Manager" (posted Jun. 2, 2004). For more information see:

Salary Information:

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ADD Health Update: The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health at the Carolina Population Center has updated its information on the 2004 ADD Health Users Conference (to be held Jul. 20-21, 2004, in Bethesda, Maryland) to include the conference's agenda (.pdf format, 7p.). For more information see:

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Census Bureau: American Community Survey 1999-2001 and Census 2000 Comparison Study. "The ACS is designed to produce aggregated multi-year estimates for small geographic areas. These estimates are to replace the traditional long form estimates. The U.S. Census Bureau last week released results from a study comparing the ACS data from 1999--2001 in the 36 test counties to the corresponding Census 2000 sample data. These estimates, along with measures of data quality, were compared at the county and census tract level. In addition to several analytical reports, the associated data tables and files are available on the ACS web site." Reports are available in .pdf format, and data is available via online interactive extraction or in raw form (comma separated value [.csv] or SAS version 8 datasets.

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706