Current Demographic Research Report #42, July 26, 2004.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau Report, Press Release
United Nations Development Compendium
Pan American Health Organization Periodical
National Center for Education Statistics Report
Bureau of Labor Statistics Article
Department of Housing and Urban Development Periodical
National Institute on Drug Abuse Report
US Government Accountability Office Report
Bureau of Justice Statistics Report
Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper
Institute of International Education Reports
Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical
Info Health Pop. Reporter


National Bureau of Economic Research
University of Wisconsin-Madison Institute for Research on Poverty
Institute for Social and Economic Research [London]
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]
Center for Policy Research [Maxwell School] University of Syracuse


European Journal of Population


Pan American Health Organization


US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hearing


National Institutes on Health


Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research



Census Bureau Report, Press Release:

A. "A Profile of Older Workers in Illinois," by Nick Carroll and Cynthia Taeuber (Local Employment Dynamics LED/OW-IL, June 2004, .pdf format, 22p.). The report is linked to from a Census Bureau news release: "As It Ages, Illinois' Work Force Remains on the Job" (CB04-117, Jul. 20, 2004).

B. "State of Nevada and Atlanta Area Counties Lead in Housing Growth, Census Bureau Reports," (Census Bureau, July 2004, Excel, comma delimited [.csv] and .pdf formats).

Detailed tables for each state can be found at:

United Nations Development Compendium: "Human Development Report 2004: Cultural Liberty in Today's Diverse World" (July 2004, .pdf format, 285p.). "Accommodating people's growing demands for their inclusion in society, for respect of their ethnicity, religion, and language, takes more than democracy and equitable growth. Also needed are multicultural policies that recognize differences, champion diversity and promote cultural freedoms, so that all people can choose to speak their language, practice their religion, and participate in shaping their culture -- so that all people can choose to be who they are." At the heart of the compendium is the Human Development Indicators section, a series of statistical tables relevant to development issues.

Pan American Health Organization Periodical: _PAHO Today_ (July 2004, HTML format). "PAHO Today, the newsletter of the Pan American Health Organization, provides news coverage of the Organization and its activities in the Americas. It includes reports on special conferences and meetings, features on international health events, interviews with key staff members, and "news briefs" on recent PAHO-related developments in the Region. It is published three times a year."

Click on item to view HTML version of newsletter.

National Center for Education Statistics Report: "From Kindergarten through Third Grade: Children's Beginning School Experiences," (NCES 2004007, July 2004, .pdf format, 36p.).


This report highlights children's gains in reading and mathematics over their first 4 years of school, from the start of kindergarten to the point when most of the children are finishing third grade. It also describes children's achievement status in reading, mathematics, and science at the end of third grade. Information is also presented on children's perceptions of their competence and interests in school subjects, their relationships with peers, and their perceptions about any problem behaviors they might exhibit. Comparisons are made in relation to children's sex, race/ethnicity, number of family risk factors, kindergarten program type, and the types of schools (i.e., public or private) children attended in the first 4 years of school. It is the fourth in a series of reports from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Article: "The labor force and unemployment: three generations of change," by Jessica R. Sincavage (US Bureau of Labor Statistics _Monthly Labor Review_, Vol. 127, No. 6, June 2003, .pdf format, 34-41p.).


The influence of the baby-boom generation on the U.S. unemployment rate continues unabated today; the subsequent, smaller generation X'ers and echo boomers have had considerably less of an influence on the rate.

Department of Housing and Urban Development Periodical: _ResearchWorks_ (Vol. 1, No. 5, July 2004, .pdf format, 7p.). "ResearchWorks is the official newsletter of U.S. HUD's Office of Policy Development & Research. ResearchWorks includes new publication announcements, relevant case studies, and success stories highlighting the efforts of those who care about housing, and who work to make it more affordable, more accessible, more energy and resource efficient, and above all, more readily available."

Click on "Current Issue" for link to full text.

National Institute on Drug Abuse Report: "Monitoring the Future: National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2003," (NIDA, July 2004, .pdf format, 545p.). "Volume I is a 545-page monograph giving the 1975-2003 national trends in smoking, drinking, and illicit drug use among American secondary school students."

US Government Accountability Office Report: "Gender Issues: Women's Participation in the Sciences Has Increased, but Agencies Need to Do More to Ensure Compliance with Title IX," (US Government Accountability Office GAO-04-639, July 2004, .pdf format, 48p.).

Note: These are temporary addresses. GAO reports are always available at:

Bureau of Justice Statistics Report:

A. "Probation and Parole in the United States, 2003," by Lauren E. Glaze and Seri Palla (NCJ 205336, July 2004, .pdf and ASCII text format, 7p., with .zip compressed Microsoft Excel spreadsheets).


Reports the number of persons on probation and parole, by State, at year end 2003 and compares the totals with year end 1995 and 2002. It lists the States with the largest and smallest parole and probation populations and the largest and smallest rates of community supervision, and identifies the States with the largest increases. The Bulletin also describes the race and gender of these populations and reports the percentages of parolees and probationers completing community supervision successfully, or failing because of a rule violation or a new offense.

B. "Profile of Jail Inmates, 2002," by Doris J. James (NCJ 201932, July 2004, .pdf and ASCII text format, 11p., with .zip compressed Microsoft Excel spreadsheets).


Presents findings from the Survey of Inmates in Local Jails, 2002, the only national source of detailed information on persons held in local jails. The report describes the characteristics of jail inmates in 2002, including offenses, conviction status, criminal histories, sentences, time served, drug and alcohol use and treatment, and family background. Characteristics of jail inmates include gender, race, and Hispanic origin. Changes since the 1996 inmate survey are examined. Data in 2002 were compiled from in-depth personal interviews with a nationally representative sample of nearly 7,000 inmates in about 417 local jails.

Monitoring the Future Occasional Papers: "Demographic Subgroup Trends For Various Licit and Illicit Drugs 1975-2003," by Lloyd D. Johnston, Patrick M. O'Malley, Jerald G. Bachman, and John E. Schulenberg (MTF Occasional Paper No. 60, 2004, .pdf format, 334p.).

NORC GSS Report: "The Vanishing Protestant Majority," by Tom W. Smith and Seokho Kim (GSS Social Change Report No. 49, July 2004, .pdf format, 22p.).

Institute of International Education Reports:

A. "Population Experts in Developing Countries: A Summary Report," by Julia Hendrickson, Taylor Haas and Elizabeth Hanauer (IIE, June 2004, .pdf format, 47p.). This report "offers a profile of population experts' characteristics, including their training and areas of specialization. It also identifies and compares the relative attributes of population experts in the major geographic regions of Africa, Asia and the Americas."

B. "Population Experts in Developing Countries: A Directory," by Julia Hendrickson, Taylor Haas and Elizabeth Hanauer (IIE, June 2004, .pdf format, 171p.). This report "includes contact information for 1,187 population experts currently working in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Oceania who have given their specific consent to be included. Each of these experts has a graduate degree in a population-related field or is a current member of a population association."

Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical: _International Family Planning Perspectives_ (Vol. 30, No. 2, June 2004, HTML and .pdf format).

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 4, No. 29, July 26, 2004). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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National Bureau of Economic Research: "Preference Formation and the Rise of Women's Labor Force Participation: Evidence from WWII," by Raquel Fernandez, Alessandra Fogli, and Claudia Olivetti (w10589, June 2004, .pdf format, 23p.).


This paper presents intergenerational evidence in favor of the hypothesis that a significant factor explaining the increase in female labor force participation over time was the growing presence of men who grew up with a different family model--one in which their mother worked. We use differences in mobilization rates of men across states during WWII as a source of exogenous variation in female labor supply. We show, in particular, that higher WWII male mobilization rates led to a higher fraction of women working not only for the generation directly affected by the war, but also for the next generation. These women were young enough to profit from the changed composition in the pool of men (i.e., from the fact that WWII created more men with mothers who worked). We also show that states in which the ratio of the average fertility of working relative to non-working women is greatest, have higher female labor supply twenty years later.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address for full text.

University of Wisconsin-Madison Institute for Research on Poverty:

A. "New Evidence about Brown v. Board of Education: The Complex Effects of School Racial Composition on Achievement," by Eric A. Hanushek, John F. Kain, and Steven G. Rivkin (IRP DP 1284-04, July 2004, .pdf format, 36p.)


While the goals of the integration of schools legally mandated by Brown v. Board of Education are very broad, here we focus more narrowly on how school racial composition affects scholastic achievement. Uncovering this effect is difficult, because racial mixing in the schools is not an accident but rather an outcome of both government and family choices. Our evaluation, made possible by rich panel data on the achievement of Texas students, disentangles racial composition effects from other aspects of school quality and from differences in abilities and family background. The results show that a higher percentage of black schoolmates has a strong adverse effect on the achievement of blacks and, moreover, that the effects are highly concentrated in the upper half of the skill distribution. In contrast, racial composition has a noticeably smaller effect on achievement of blacks with lower initial achievement and of whites--strongly suggesting that the results are not a simple reflection of unmeasured school quality. The uneven distribution of blacks across school districts can explain a significant portion of the black-white achievement gap in Texas.

B. "Understanding Racial Disparities in Health: The Income-Wealth Paradox," by Audra T. Wenzlow, John Mullahy, and Barbara L. Wolfe (IRP DP 1283-04, July 2004, .pdf format, 28p.).


We examine the ways in which racial differences in health vary over the income-wealth distribution, comparing the self-reported health status of non-Hispanic whites with those of individuals of other races and ethnicities. Paradoxically, we find that although the largest unadjusted racial differences in health are between poor whites and poor nonwhites, after adjusting for income, wealth, and other demographic characteristics, health differences between nonwhites and whites are only significant among those in the upper half of the income-wealth distribution. The results suggest that unexplained racial differences in reported health status increase with socioeconomic status among individuals aged 25-54.

Institute for Social and Economic Research [London]: "Multinational Analysis of Poverty Dynamics in the UK," by Guido Maggio (ISER 2004-10, July 2004, .pdf format, 58p.).


This paper investigates the multidimensional aspects of poverty in the population of Great Britain from 1991 to 2000 focusing mainly on the longitudinal analysis and on poverty dynamics, that is the persistence or the transience of the staying in the state of poverty and the movements into and out of such a state across the time. It examines monetary and supplementary variables, included an overview of the dimensions within the latter, by using the fuzzy approach recently proposed by Verma and Betti (2003).

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]: "Social Networks and Labor Market Transitions," by Yann Bramoullé, Gilles Saint-Paul (Discussion Paper No. 1215, July 2004, .pdf format, 18p.).


We study the influence of social networks on labor market transitions. We develop the first model where social ties and job status co-evolve through time. Our key assumption is that the probability of formation of a new tie is greater between two employed individuals than between an employed and an unemployed individual. We show that this assumption generates negative duration dependence of exit rates from unemployment. Our model has a number of novel testable implications. For instance, we show that a higher connectivity among unemployed individuals reduces duration dependence and that exit rates depend positively on the duration of the last job held by the unemployed worker.

Center for Policy Research [Maxwell School] University of Syracuse: "How Much More Does a Disadvantaged Student Cost?" by William Duncombe and John Yinger (CPR Working Paper No. 60, July 2004, .pdf format, 44p.).


This paper provides a guide to statistically based methods for estimating the extra costs of educating disadvantaged students, shows how these methods are related, and compares state aid programs that account for these costs in different ways. We show how pupil weights, which are included in many state aid programs, can be estimated from an education cost equation, which many scholars use to obtain an education cost index, and we devise a method to estimate pupil weights directly. Using data from New York, we show that the distribution of state aid is similar with statistically based pupil weights and an educational cost index. Finally, we show that large, urban school districts with a high concentration of disadvantaged students would receive far more aid (and rich suburban districts would receive far less aid) if statistically based pupil weights were used instead of the ad hoc weights in existing state aid programs.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

European Journal of Population (Vol. 20, No. 2, 2004).

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Pan American Health Organization: "AIDS in Latin America: A Controllable Epidemic," (PAHO, July 2004, not available in electronic format). The Spanish title of the book is "El VIH/SIDA en países de América Latina. Los retos futuros." Ordering information can be found at:

Press Release:

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US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hearing Publication: "Year 2000 Decennial Census," a hearing held March 28, 2001 (S. Hrg. 107-1061, .pdf and ASCII text format, 89p.).

Scroll down to or "find in page" "107-1061" (without the quotes).

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National Institutes on Health: "Prevention and Treatment of Childhood Obesity in Primary Care Setting," (US National Institutes on Health, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, in conjunction with other agencies, RFA-HD-04-020, July 20, 2004).

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Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research: ICPSR at the University of Michigan has recently released the following datasets, which may be of interest to demography researchers. Note: Some ICPSR studies are available only to ICPSR member institutions. To find out whether your organization is a member, and whether or not it supports ICPSR Direct downloading, see:

Census of Population and Housing, 2000 [United States]: Selected Subsets from Summary File 3 (#13402)

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