Current Demographic Research Report #44, August 9, 2004.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau Report
Bureau of Labor Statistics Bulletin
Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Report
National Center for Education Statistics Brief
National Center for Health Statistics Report
NIH News Release
Population Reference Bureau Reports
Center for Disease Control Press Release
World Health Organization Press Release
_NEJM_ Article Abstract
_Demographic Research_ Article
East-West Center Report
Pan American Health Organization News Release
Kaiser Family Foundation Report


Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]
Luxembourg Income Study
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad


Economic Development and Cultural Change
Journal of Biosocial Science
Journal of Public Health Policy
Population Bulletin
Social Forces
Monthly Labor Review


Medial Expenditure Panel Survey chart book


Office of Population Affairs


National Longitudinal Study Data Update
Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research


American Sociological Association (ASA)
United Nation's Millennium Project



Census Bureau Report: "The Foreign-Born Population in the United States: 2003," by Luke J. Larsen (P20-551, August 2004, report in .pdf format, tables in .pdf, Excel, and comma delimited format, 9p.).

Press Release:

Bureau of Labor Statistics Bulletin: "Occupational Projections and Training Data bulletin 2004-05 edition," (BLS Bulletin 2572, 2004, pdf format, 206 p.).

"This statistical and research supplement to the 2004-05 Occupational Outlook Handbook presents detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the Handbook. It also discusses how the data are prepared and presents new research-information that is valuable to training officials, education planners, vocational and employment counselors, jobseekers, and others interested in occupational information. This edition of the supplement is the 17th in a series dating back to 1971."

Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Report: "Assessing the Mental Health Status of Youth in Juvenile Justice Settings ", by Gail A. Wasserman, Susan J. Ko, and Larkin S. McReynolds (NCJ 202713, August 2004, .pdf and HTML format, 8p.) .

National Center for Education Statistics Brief: "1.1 Million Homeschooled Students in the United States in 2003," (NCES 2004115, July 2004, .pdf format, 3p.).

US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service Report: "Rural Poverty at a Glance," by Dean Jolliffe (Rural Development Research Report No. RDRR100, July 2004, .pdf format, 6p.).


This publication provides the most recent information on poverty trends and demographic characteristics of the rural poor. The rate of poverty is not only an important social indicator of the well-being of the least well off, but it is also widely used as an input in shaping Federal policies and targeting program benefits. While metro and nonmetro areas have shared similar patterns of reductions and increases in poverty rates over time, there continues to exist a wide and persistent gap between nonmetro and metro poverty rates. The report also documents large metro-nonmetro gaps when poverty is analyzed by race, ethnicity, age, and family structure.

US Department of Health and Human Service, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation Reports:

Research Note: "The Long-Term Uninsured," (August 2004, .pdf and HTML format, 6 p.).

Final Report: "The Use of TANF Work-Oriented Sanctions in Illinois, New Jersey, and South Carolina", by LaDonna Pavetti, Michelle K. Derr, Gretchen Kirby, Robert G. Wood, and Melissa A. Clark (April 2004, HTML and .pdf format).

National Center for Health Statistics Report:"Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for January 2004", (Volume 53, Number 1, August 6, 2004, .pdf format, 6 p.).

NIH News Release: "Landmark Survey Reports on the Prevalence of Personality Disorders in the United States," (August 2, 2004).

Population Reference Bureau Reports: "China's Growing AIDS Epidemic Increasingly Affects Women" by Drew Thompson (July 2004).

Center for Disease Control Press Release: "CDC's New State-Specific Breastfeeding Data Will Help States Better Target Programs," (August 5, 2004).

World Health Organization Press Release: "WHO announces end of Ebola outbreak in southern Sudan " (August 7, 2004)

_NEJM_ Article Abstract: "Primary Care Physicians Who Treat Blacks and Whites," by Peter B. Bach, Hoangmai H. Pham, Deborah Schrag, Ramsey C. Tate, and J. Lee Hargraves (_New England Journal of Medicine_, Vol. 351, No. 6, August 5, 2004, .pdf and HTML format, p. 575-584).

_DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH_ ARTICLE: Note: "_DR_ is a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research." "Sociodemographic Effects on the Onset and Recovery of ADL Disability among Chinese Oldest-old," by Danan Gu and Yi Zeng (Vol. 11, No. 1, August 4, 2004, .pdf format, 42p.).


By pooling the data from the three waves (1998, 2000, and 2002) of the Chinese Longitudinal Health and Longevity Survey, this study examines the association of sociodemographic factors with the onset and recovery of ADL disability including changes in functional status before dying. The results show that the sociodemographic factors play some specific roles in disability dynamics at very high ages even after controlling for a rich set of confounders.

Our results also point out that the conventional method, which excludes the information of ADL changes before dying due to unavailability of the data, overestimates the effects of age, gender, ethnicity, and living alone on disability transitions whereas it underestimates the effects of SES, although such discrepancies are not very big compared with the results including information of ADL changes before dying.

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East-West Center Report: "HIV/AIDS Awareness Is Improving in China," by Chen Shengli, Zhang Shikun, and Sidney B. Westley (Asia-Pacific Population& Policy No. 69, 2004, .pdf format, 4 p.).

Pan American Health Organization News Release: "The Importance of Exclusively Breastfeeding for the First Six Months," (August 3, 2004).

Kaiser Family Foundation Report: "Update on Individual Health Insurance," (KFF, August 2004, .pdf format, 12p.).

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 4, No. 32, August 2, 2004). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]

A. "Ethnic Networks and International Trade," by Gil S. Epstein, Ira N. Gang (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1232, August 2004, .pdf format, 24 p.).


There is a well-established high quality literature on the role of networks, particularly ethnic networks, in international trade. Ethnic networks are a way of overcoming informal barriers (information costs, risk and uncertainty) to trade by building trust and substituting for the difficulty of enforcing contracts internationally. The networks we are interested in are those that form between migrants and natives in the host country and between migrants and their home country. Ethnic networks exist when assimilation is not complete. We consider the struggle of migrants to assimilate and, at the same time, the struggle of the local population to prevent such assimilation. These activities affect trade possibilities. Moreover, we show that it may well be in the interest of migrants who specialize in trade to, at some point in time, turn from investing in assimilation activities and instead invest in anti-assimilation activities in order to preserve immigrants' preferences for home country goods.

B. "Where Immigrants Settle in the United States," by Barry R. Chiswick, Paul W. Miller (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1231, August 2004, .pdf format, 24 p.).

No abstract was available for this paper.

C. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels" by Hashem Pesaran (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240, August 2004, .pdf format, 39 p.).


This paper proposes simple tests of error cross section dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on average of pair-wise correlation coefficients of the OLS residuals from the individual regressions in the panel, and can be used to test for cross section dependence of any fixed order p, as well as the case where no a priori ordering of the cross section units is assumed, referred to as CD(p) and CD tests, respectively. Asymptotic distributions of these tests are derived and their power function analyzed under different alternatives. It is shown that these tests are correctly centred for fixed N and T, and are robust to single or multiple breaks in the slope coefficients and/or error variances. The small sample properties of the tests are investigated and compared to the Lagrange multiplier test of Breusch and Pagan using Monte Carlo experiments. It is shown that the tests have the correct size in very small samples and satisfactory power, and as predicted by the theory, quite robust to the presence of unit roots and structural breaks. The use of the CD test is illustrated by applying it to study the degree of dependence in per capita output innovations across countries within a given region and across countries in different regions. The results show significant evidence of cross dependence in output innovations across many countries and regions in the world. (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240, August 2004, .pdf format, 39 p.).

D. "Stepping Stones for the Unemployed: The Effect of Temporary Jobs on the Duration until Regular Work" by Marloes Zijl, Gerard J. van den Berg, Arjan Heyma (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1241, August 2004, .pdf format, 31 p.).


Individual labour market transitions from unemployment into temporary work are often succeeded by a transition from temporary into regular work. We investigate whether temporary work increases the transition rate to regular work. In that case, temporary work may enhance labour market efficiency. We use longitudinal survey data of individuals to estimate a multi-state duration model, applying the 'timing of events' approach. To deal with selectivity, the model incorporates transitions from unemployment to temporary jobs and unobserved determinants of the transition rates. The data contain multiple spells in labour market states at the individual level. We analyse the results using novel graphical representations. The results unambiguously show that temporary jobs serve as stepping stones towards regular employment. They shorten the duration of unemployment and they substantially increase the fraction of unemployed workers who have regular work within a few years after entry into unemployment, as compared to a situation without temporary jobs.

E. "The Influence of Others on Migration Plans" by Gil S. Epstein, Ira N. Gang (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1244, August 2004, .pdf format, 19 p.).


The willingness to migrate and locational choice may be influenced by others' choices or plans, particularly if the "other people", such as family and friends, are migrants, former migrants, or potential migrants themselves. We examine the roles "other people" play in influencing an individual's potential migration decision. In analyzing the influence of others on migration decisions, we rely on the concepts of migration networks and herd effects.

F. "The Heterogeneous Effect of Selection in Secondary Schools: Understanding the Changing Role of Ability" by Fernando Galindo-Rueda, Anna Vignoles (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1245, August 2004, .pdf format, 45 p.).


Previous work by the authors suggested that during the 1970s and 1980s, a person's early cognitive ability became a less important determinant of his or her eventual educational achievement. Furthermore, over the same time period, family background started to have a greater impact on a person's achievement. Given that this coincided with the gradual demise of the British selective grammar school system, it would seem that the role of selection (ability tracking) in the school system merits further investigation. This paper explores the inter-relationship between school selection, ability and educational achievement. Our regression and matching results indicate that the most able pupils in the selective school system did do better than those of similar ability in the mixed ability school system. We do not find evidence of significant negative effects of tracking for low/middle ability students.

Luxembourg Income Study: Five new working papers have been released by LIS: They are:

No. 379. Welfare State Expenditures and the Distribution of Child Opportunities, by Irwin Garfinkel, Lee Rainwater and Timothy Smeeding, June 2004.

No. 380. Inequality in Household Income: A Cross-Country Inter-Industry Analysis, by C. Jeffrey Waddoups, June 2004.

No. 381. The Social Evaluation of Income Distribution: An Assessment Based on Happiness Surveys, by Udo Ebert and Heinz Welsch, June 2004.

No. 382. Family Gaps in Income: A Cross-national Comparison, by Wendy Sigle-Rushton and Jane Waldfogel, June 2004.

No. 383. Fractionalization and the Size of Government, by Jo thori Lind, June 2004.

No. 384. Relative to What? Cross-national Picture of European Poverty Measured by Regional, National and European Standards, by Olli Kangas and Veli-Matti Ritakallio, June 2004.

Links to abstracts and full text for both these papers are available at:

Bureau of Labor Statistics: "Parental Transfers, Student Achievement, and the Labor Supply of College Students" by Kalenkoski, Charlene Marie and Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia. (WP-374, August 2004, .pdf format, 31 p.).


College students may participate in market work to finance their college educations. Using data from the NLSY97, three hypotheses are tested. First, smaller parental transfers lead to more hours worked while in school. Second, an increase in the net price of schooling leads to an increase in hours worked. Finally, an increase in hours worked leads to a decrease in a student's GPA. The results indicate that the number of hours a student works per week is unaffected by the schooling-related financial variables and that the number of hours worked per week does not affect a student's GPA.

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad: "Treating HIV/AIDS patients in India with antiretroviral therapy: a management challenge," by Bhat Ramesh, Maheshwari Sunil Kumar, Saha Somen (IIMA Working Paper, June 2004, .pdf format, p.).


India stands at a critical junction of HIV pandemic. Controlling spread of HIV is critical. Ignoring this will lead millions of Indians in grip of this pandemic. Ever since HIV/AIDS was acknowledged as a problem, the strategies to address the issue have focused on prevention, treatment and research. This paper discusses the treatment aspect. With currently available antiretroviral agents, eradication of HIV infection is not likely. The aim of treatment is thus to prolong and improve the quality of life by maintaining maximal suppression of virus replication for as long as possible. Brazil has shown how to implement antiretroviral therapy programme. India has embarked upon an ambitious programme to introduce antiretroviral therapy in six high prevalent states and the national capital. The paper discusses the technical, management and financing challenge in implementing this intervention.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

B. click on "browse by publication"
C. Click the "fax/ariel" radio button, type the Journal Name in the "by words in the title" search box and click "search".
D. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

Economic Development and Cultural Change (vol. 52, no. 3, 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library and EbscoHost databases. Check your library for the availability of these databases and this issue.

Journal of Biosocial Science. (vol. 36, no. 4, 2004).

Journal of Public Health Policy (vol. 25 no. 2, 2004).

Population Bulletin (vol. 59, no. 2, 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and these issues.

Social Forces (vol. 82, no. 4, 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library and EbscoHost databases. Check your library for the availability of these databases and this issue.

Other Journals:

Monthly Labor Review (Vol. 127, No. 7, July 2004).

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Medial Expenditure Panel Survey chartbook: "Health Care in Urban and Rural Areas, Combined Years 1998-2000" July 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 40 p.).

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Office of Population Affairs: "The Office of Population Affairs (OPA) requests applications for grants for applied research addressing Adolescent Family Life (AFL) program goals related to adolescent sexual relations, pregnancy, and parenthood: helping adolescents avoid health risk behaviors; ensuring that adolescents have the supports necessary to pursue healthy and productive lives; and strengthening families. The Add Health study is recommended as a data source. Details of the announcement are in Vol. 69, No. 146 of the Federal Register."

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National Longitudinal Study Data Update: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the Center for Human Resource Research (CHRR) at the Ohio State University, has released National Longitudinal Surveys, All Cohorts, August 2004 CD-ROM. For ordering information go to:


Panel Study of Income Dynamics: "We have released the following files: PCG Child, PCG Household, OCG Child, OCG Household, Child Interview, Assessments, Teacher Interview, and Demographic file, based on data collected on 2,907 CDS children/youth aged 5-18 in the fall of 2002/ spring of 2003. These same children were interviewed in 1997 when they were 0-12 for CDS-I, also available through the PSID-CDS Data Center. Each data file is accompanied by a complete on-line codebook. In the Data Center, a map of the caregiver's PSID IDs now accompanies all CDS downloads. This map can be used to link PSID main study individual data about the caregivers with the CDS data. See the CDS web pages for questionnaires and other study documentation. A User Guide for CDS II will be available around Labor Day 2004; Time Diary data are planned for release in the early fall of 2004."

A. "2002 Other Caregiver Household File," (August 2, 2004).

B. "2002 Child File," (August 2, 2004).

C. "2002 Child Assessments," (August 2, 2004).

D. "2002 Primary Caregiver Child File," (August 2, 2004).

E. "2002 Primary Caregiver Household File," (August 2, 2004).

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research: ICPSR at the University of Michigan has recently released the following datasets, which may be of interest to demography researchers. Note: Some ICPSR studies are available only to ICPSR member institutions. To find out whether your organization is a member, and whether or not it supports ICPSR Direct downloading, see:

National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997-2001 (#3959).



American Sociological Association (ASA): The Population Section has a new website at:

Russell Sage Foundation Project: "The Social Dimensions of Inequality.""Income inequality rose dramatically from 1979 to 1994, a trend that was stemmed, though not reversed, by the economic boom of the 1990s. But the income distribution does not tell us all we need to know about inequality in this country. Inequality has social, as well as economic, dimensions. Those who have fallen behind in the labor market, may have lost ground on other fronts, such as housing, health care, education, access to credit, and access to the law. These social dimensions of inequality may be the consequences of economic inequality, or the causes--unequal access to housing may be one consequence of economic inequality, while educational inequality may be a cause. Some of the social dimensions of inequality may be relatively independent of the income gap, and there may be other areas in which American society has become more equal, offsetting the widening inequality in incomes and assets over the past 25 years.

In partnership with the Carnegie Corporation, the Russell Sage Foundation has launched a new research initiative to examine social inequality on a number of dimensions, including family well-being, educational opportunity, health care and coverage, legal services and criminal justice, political participation and representation, banking and credit, housing, pension provision, environmental quality, and even access to computers and the Internet. The project will consist of a cluster of working groups, each based at an individual university or research center. The groups will pursue their own portfolio of investigations into one or more of the social dimensions of inequality. They will develop indicators of inequality in the social domains under scrutiny, track trends in each domain, and illuminate how different types of inequality are interlinked.

The recent bout of income inequality, brought about by a restructuring economy, may dissipate as the economy resettles. But it may also become entrenched through the social changes that come in its wake. Those losing out economically may also suffer cumulative social disadvantages that are difficult to reverse. The fear is that economic divisions may harden into social divisions, hampering economic mobility and passing on today's inequities to the next generation."

United Nation's Millennium Project: "The Millennium Project's research focuses on identifying the operational priorities, organizational means of implementation, and financing structures necessary to achieve the MDGs. Ten thematically-orientated Task Forces perform the bulk of the research. They are comprised of representatives from academia, the public and private sectors, civil society organizations, and UN agencies with the majority of participants coming from outside the UN system. The 15-20 members of each Task Force are all global leaders in their area, selected on the basis of their technical expertise and practical experience."

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John Carlson, Senior Special Librarian
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Center for Demography and Ecology (CDE)
4470 Social Science Bldg.
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