Current Demographic Research Report #45, August 16, 2004.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau Report
Government Printing Office News Release
National Center for Education Statistics Briefs
NIH News Release
United Nations ESA Population Division Report
United Nations ESCAP Wall Chart
World Health Organization
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
_MMWR_ Article
Demographic Research_ Article
Info Health Pop. Reporter


Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]


American Journal of Epidemiology
American Journal of Sociology
Public Opinion Quarterly


Panel Study of Income Dynamics
National Longitudinal Study


Demographic Institute, University of Indonesia
Institute of Health Systems
Population Reference Bureau
World Health Organization



Census Bureau Report: "Current Housing Reports: American Housing Survey for the United States: 2003," (August 2004, 473 p. .pdf format).

Government Printing Office News Release: "Key GPO Access Resources Now Available Via Web Portal", (August 13, 2004)

National Center for Education Statistics Brief: "Who Teaches Reading in Public Elementary Schools?" (NCES 2004-034, August 2004, .pdf format, 3p.).

NIH News Release: "Scientists Discover New Approaches to Manipulating AIDS Virus," (August 2004).

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division Report: "Trends in Total Migrant Stock: The 2003 Revision (Diskette with Data and Documentation)." Note: Ordering information is available at the site:

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Report: "Children on the Brink 2004: A Joint Report of New Orphan Estimates and a Framework for Action," (July 2004, .pdf format, 42p.).

United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Wall Chart: "Fifty Years of Development in Asia and the Pacific," (April 2004, .pdf format).


This colorful, double-sided, A1-size wall chart, prepared for the sixtieth session of ESCAP in April 2004, presents selected socio-economic indicators for Asia and the Pacific since 1950. The series are presented in charts for the six sub-regions of ESCAP and some indicators are available for all 58 regional members and associate members of ESCAP. Snapshots of development at the country level and brief commentary are also provided.

World Health Organization Press Release: "World Health Organization action in Afghanistan aims to control debilitating leishmaniasis," (August 10, 2004).

Bureau of Labor Statistics News Release: "Job Openings and Labor Turnover : June 2004," (August 11, 2004).

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Report: "Maternal Deaths in Australia 1997-1999," by K. Slaytor, EA Sullivan, F. King (August, 2004, 113 p.).

_MMWR_ Article:

A. "Assessment of the Effectiveness of the 2003--04 Influenza Vaccine Among Children and Adults --- Colorado, 2003," (Centers for Disease Control, _Morbidly and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 53, No. 31, August 13, 2004, HTML and .pdf format, p. 707-710).

B. "Epidemiology of Measles --- United States, 2001--2003," (Centers for Disease Control, _Morbidly and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 53, No. 31, August 13, 2004, HTML and .pdf format, p. 713-716).

C. "Congenital Syphilis --- United States, 2002," (Centers for Disease Control, _Morbidly and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 53, No. 31, August 13, 2004, HTML and .pdf format, p. 716-719).

D. "West Nile Virus Activity --- United States, August 4--10, 2004," (Centers for Disease Control, _Morbidly and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 53, No. 31, August 13, 2004, HTML and .pdf format, p. 719-720).

Demographic Research_ Article: Note: _DR_ is " a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research." "Under-Five Mortality in Nigeria: Perception and Attitudes of the Yorubas Towards the Existence of "Abiku"," by Peter Olasupo Ogunjuyigbe (Vol. 11, No. 2, August 2004, .pdf format, p. 43-56).


The paper examines the perception and attitudes of the Yorubas about the existence of abiku (children from the spirit world) and the mode of treatment given to such children. The study elicited information from 1695 women of reproductive age in Ondo and Ekiti state of Southwest Nigeria. The study shows (i) more than half of the respondents believe in the existence of abiku children; (ii) that abiku children can be identified from the evidence of past death, frequent indisposition, non-responsiveness of their illness to modern medical care as well as repeated death and verification from traditional healers; (iii) that causes of illness differ between abiku and non-abiku children; (iv) close to 71 percent of the respondents have faith in traditional methods of treatment for abiku children. The study, therefore, reiterate the need to integrate the people's beliefs, attitudes and behavioural practices into health promotion programmes.

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Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 4, No. 33, August 16, 2004). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research: "Fertility of internal migrants: comparison between Austria and Poland," by Hill Kulu (WP-2004-022 August 2004, .pdf format, 43 p.).


Previous research has proposed four competing views on an individual's fertility following a move from one social context to another. Each view has received support but has also been challenged by literature. This study contributes to the existing discussion on fertility by providing an analysis of the effects of internal migration on the fertility of post-war Austrian and Polish female cohorts. We base our study on retrospective event-history data and apply intensity regression to both single and simultaneous equations. Our analysis shows, first, that natives in urban areas in general and in the large cities in particular have lower fertility compared to non-migrants in rural areas, both in Austria and Poland. Second, it reveals that people who move from one place to another adopt the fertility behaviour that is dominant at destination. Third, we observe an elevated first birth risk for women who move because of union formation, and a short-term postponement of childbearing for those who settle in a large city. Our country comparison shows some differences in fertility variation across settlements, but, overall, the results are quite similar, despite the different post-war societal context of two countries.

Luxembourg Income Study: The following working papers have recently been added to the working paper web site at LIS. Links to abstracts and full text can be found at:

No. 385. Economic Inequality and Democratic Political Engagement, by Frederick Solt, July 2004.

University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty:

"The Effects of Teach For America on Students: Findings from a National Evaluation," by Paul T. Decker, Daniel P. Mayer, and Steven Glazerman (IRP Discussion paper 1285-04, July 2004, .pdf format, 51 p.)


Based on student outcomes, our findings show that Teach For America (TFA) teachers had a positive impact on the math achievement of their students--average math scores were higher among TFA students than among control students, and the difference was statistically significant. TFA teachers did not have an impact on reading achievement--average reading gains were comparable among the TFA and control students. The findings regarding math and reading impacts were fairly consistent across grades, regions, and student subgroups, and they were robust to changes in modeling assumptions and specifications. Our results have important implications for a variety of stakeholders. Program funders, program operators, and policymakers at the state and federal levels have an enduring interest in finding ways to attract and retain high-quality teachers in low-income communities. District officials and school staff in such areas have an especially practical interest in the same question, particularly in the short term, with federal requirements under No Child Left Behind to place a highly qualified teacher in every classroom. Finally, parents and children in low-income communities are most directly affected by decisions about who will teach in their schools. From the perspective of TFA and its funders, our findings clearly show that the organization is making progress toward its primary mission of reducing inequities in education--it supplies low-income schools with academically talented teachers who contribute positively to the academic achievement of their students. The success of TFA teachers is not dependent on teachers having extensive exposure to teacher practice or training. Even though TFA teachers generally lack any formal teacher training beyond that provided by TFA, they produce higher student test scores than the other teachers in their schools--not just other novice teachers or uncertified teachers, but also veterans and certified teachers. Our study provides important information to policymakers who are trying to improve the educational opportunities of children in poor communities. The findings that many of the control teachers in our study were not certified or did not have forma training highlights the need for programs or policies that offer the potential of attracting good teachers to schools in the most disadvantaged communities. TFA is one such program.

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]:

A. "Linguistic Distance: A Quantitative Measure of the Distance Between English and Other Languages," by Barry R. Chiswick and Paul W. Miller (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1246, August 2004, pdf format, 18 p.).


This paper develops a scalar or quantitative measure of the "distance" between English and a myriad of other (non-native American) languages. This measure is based on the difficulty Americans have learning other languages. The linguistic distance measure is then used in an analysis of the determinants of English language proficiency among adult immigrants in the United States and Canada. It is shown that, when other determinants of English language proficiency are the same, the greater the measure of linguistic distance, the poorer is the respondent's English language proficiency. This measure can be used in research, evaluation and practitioner analyses, and for diagnostic purposes regarding linguistic minorities in English-speaking countries. The methodology can also be applied to develop linguistic distance measures for other languages.

B. "Simulation of an Income Contingent Tuition Scheme in a Transition Economy," by Milan Vodopivec (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1247, August 2004, pdf format, 32 p.).


The paper takes advantage of exceptionally rich longitudinal data on the universe of labor force participants in Slovenia and simulates the working of an income contingent loan scheme to partly recover tuition costs. The simulations show that under the base variant (where the target cost recovery rate is 20 percent and the contribution rate is 2 percent), 55 percent of individuals would have repaid their entire debt within 20 years; 19 percent of individuals still would not have repaid any of their debt after 20 years; and the "leakage" of the scheme due to uncollected debt would have been 13.5 percent of total lending. By piggybacking on existing administrative systems, implementation costs would be minimal, amounting to less than 0.5 percent of collected debt.

C. "The Consequences of 'In-Work' Benefit Reform in Britain: New Evidence from Panel Data," by Marco Francesconi and Wilbert van der Klaauw (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1248, August 2004, pdf format, 70 p.).


In October 1999, the British government enacted the Working Families' Tax Credit, a generous tax credit aimed at encouraging work among low-income families with children. This paper uses longitudinal data collected between 1991 and 2001 to evaluate the effect of this reform on single mothers. We identify this impact by comparing changes in behavior of lone mothers to changes for single women without children. Our results show that the financial incentives of the reform had powerful effects on a wide range of lone mothers' decisions. The reform led to a substantial increase in employment rates of about 7 percentage points, which was driven by both higher rates at which lone mothers remained in the labor force and higher rates at which they entered it. Women's responses were highly heterogeneous, with larger effects for mothers with one pre-school aged child, and virtually no effect for mothers with multiple older children. The reform also led to significant reductions in single mothers' subsequent fertility and in the rate at which they married. Our findings suggest that the generous childcare tax credit component of the reform played a key role in explaining the estimated employment responses. Finally, we find relatively large behavioral effects in anticipation of the actual reform, which emphasizes the importance of allowing for such effects in future evaluation research.

D. "International Outsourcing and the Skill Structure of Labour Demand in the United Kingdom," by Alexander Hijzen, Holger Grg, and Robert C. Hine (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1249, August 2004, pdf format, 31 p.).


This paper investigates empirically the link between international outsourcing and the skill structure of labour demand in the United Kingdom. It is the first detailed study of this issue for the UK. Outsourcing is calculated using import-use matrices of input-output tables for manufacturing industries for the period 1982 to 1996. Estimating a system of variable factor demands, our main results show that international outsourcing has had a strong negative impact on the demand for unskilled labour. Hence, international outsourcing is an important component in explanations of the changing skill structure of manufacturing industries in the United Kingdom.

E. "Observable and Unobservable Household Sharing Rules: Evidence from Young Couples' Pocket Money," by Jungmin Lee (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1250, August 2004, pdf format, 44 p.).


The leading evidence against the unitary household models is that "who gets what" is significantly dependent upon "who earns how much." However, it is difficult to pin down the causal effect of relative earnings on intra-household resource allocation because households jointly decide both labor supply and consumption. I utilize longitudinal data to analyze the spouse's individual budgets - "pocket money." This unique data set allows for the specification of the simultaneous process of household decision-making in a fully stochastic fashion. By doing this, it is possible to differentiate unobserved spousal bargaining power from heterogeneity at the household level. The results imply that the balance of power between spouses is stable over time and robust to transitory changes in relative earnings. Public policies targeting the disadvantaged within households should be designed and implemented on the long-term basis.

F. "Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques," by Kenneth Troske and Alexandru Voicu (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1251, August 2004, pdf format, 35 p.).


In this paper we estimate the causal effect of children on the labor supply of women using panel data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). We examine the effect of children both prior to and after birth as well as how the effect of children varies with the number of children. We also decompose the total effect of children into the direct and indirect components and separately examine the dynamics of these components. Sequential participation decisions for four levels of labor market involvement and fertility decisions are jointly modeled. We allow decisions to be correlated in a general fashion both across time and across choices. The estimation is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We find that children have a strong effect on a women's labor market behavior in both the pre- and post-birth period. We also find that both the direct and indirect effects are large immediately after the birth of a child but that the indirect effect declines quickly over time. The effects of children vary by education and race.

G. "Reservation Wages, Search Duration, and Accepted Wages in Europe," by John T. Addison, Mrio Centeno, Pedro Portugal, (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1252, August 2004, pdf format, 17 p.).


This paper uses data from the European Community Household Panel, 1994-99, to investigate the arrival rate of job offers, the determinants of reservation wages, transitions out of unemployment, and accepted wages. In this exploratory treatment, we report that the arrival rate of job offers declines precipitously with jobless duration and age; that reservation wages do decline with the jobless spell (and aggregate unemployment); that transitions out of unemployment exhibit strong negative duration dependence for reasons that have more to do with the arrival rate of job offers than with reservation wages; and that the decline in reemployment wages with joblessness closely shadows the corresponding fall in reservation wages.

H. "Geographic Labour Mobility and Unemployment Insurance in Europe," by Konstantinos Tatsiramos (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1253, August 2004, pdf format, 28 p.).


Conventional wisdom suggests that unemployment benefits create a stronger geographic attachment by lowering the willingness of the unemployed to accept job offers. We assess empirically the effect of benefits on geographic labour mobility using individual data from the European Community Household Panel for France, Germany, Spain, and the UK. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we find that receiving benefits enhances mobility offsetting the negative effect of benefits on the incentives to move. We estimate binary choice panel data models controlling for unobserved heterogeneity using random and fixed effects. The results are invariant to the estimated model.

I. "Estimating the Effect of Personality on Male-Female Earnings," by Gerrit Mueller and Erik Plug (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1254, August 2004, pdf format, 27 p.).


This paper uses the Five-Factor Model of personality structure as an organizing framework to explore the effects of personality on earnings. Using data from a longitudinal survey of American high school graduates, we find that extroversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness to experience are rewarded/penalized significantly and differentially across genders. Antagonistic, emotionally stable and open men enjoy substantial earnings advantages over otherwise similar individuals. In case of women, the labor market appears to value conscientiousness and openness to experience. The positive returns to openness are very similar across genders, suggesting that being creative, unconventional and artistic is equally important for men and women working in all types of occupations. Moreover, we find significant gender differences in personality characteristics. Decomposition of personality-based earnings differentials into trait and parameter effects suggests that gender-atypical traits reduce the earnings advantage that individuals would otherwise enjoy under their own-sex wage structure. Overall, we find that the impact of personality on earnings is significant but not large - not trivial either - and comparable to the impact of differences in cognitive ability.

J. "Private Tutoring Expenditures in Turkey," by Aysit Tansel and Fatma Bircan (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1255, August 2004, pdf format, 25 p.).


This is the first study on private tutoring in Turkey. Private tutoring especially for the purpose of preparing for the competitive university entrance examination is an important, widespread phenomenon in Turkey. Private tutoring centers are commonly referred to as "dersane" in Turkish. This study first gives an overview of private tutoring centers. Next, it examines the determinants of private tutoring expenditures in Turkey using the results of the 1994 Household Expenditure Survey. The determinants examined within a Tobit model framework include total household expenditure, education levels of parents and other household characteristics. Such analysis of the household behavior of attempting to provide better education to their children will highlight the determinants of the demand for education and the intergenerational transfers in Turkey.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

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International Migration (vol. 42 no. 3, August 2004).

Public Health Reports- US (vol. 119 no. 4, 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Social Science Quarterly (vol. 85 no. 3, 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Other Journals

American Journal of Epidemiology (vol. 160 no. 4, August 15, 2004).

American Journal of Sociology (Volume 110, no. 1, July 2004).

Public Opinion Quarterly (vol. 68 no. 2, 2004).

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Panel Study of Income Dynamics: "We have released the following files:

A. "2002 Time Diary," (August 2004).

B. "2002 Time Diary Questionnaire," (August 2004).

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Demographic Institute, University of Indonesia: "The Demographic Institute is one of Indonesia's leading research institutes for demography, population, and development issues. It was established in 1964 by the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia and started its activities the following year. The Institute's overall goals are to (i) to heighten awareness of demographic change and the variables that give impact to every endeavor within the context of national development; (ii) to establish collaborative relationships with other population studies centers in the country.

Institute of Health Systems: "The Institute of Health Systems (IHS) is a NGO working in the field of public health research. The objectives of IHS are to promote and provide for the study of health systems, health policy, health services management, health economics, and medical sociology."

Population Reference Bureau

"The Population Reference Bureau is the leader in providing timely and objective information on U.S. and international population trends and their implications. PRB informs policymakers, educators, the media, and concerned citizens working in the public interest around the world through a broad range of activities, including publications, information services, seminars and workshops, and technical support."


World Health Organization : WHO Statistical Information System (WHOSIS)

"The WHO Statistical Information System is the guide to health and health-related epidemiological and statistical information available from the World Health Organization. Most WHO technical programmes make statistical information available, and they will be linked from here. You also have the possibility to search by keywords within the WHOSIS or throughout the entire WHO site."

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John Carlson, Senior Special Librarian
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Center for Demography and Ecology (CDE)
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