Current Demographic Research Report #46, August 23, 2004.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau Report
_MMWR_ HIV/AIDS Special Surveillance Report
DHHS, Office of the Inspector General Report
National Center for Education Statistics Report, Periodical
Bureau of Labor Statistics News Release
Bureau of Justice Statistics Compendium Update
National Science Foundation Reports, InfoBrief
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Report
National Academy Press Monographs
Urban Institute Report
Kaiser Family Foundation Report
Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical
Population Reference Bureau Reports
_British Medical Journal_ Article
Info Health Pop Reporter
NLS (National Longitudinal Survey) Bibliography Updates


University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Demography and Ecology
University of Michigan Population Studies Center
National Bureau of Economic Research
University of Rochester [New York] Economics Department
World Bank Development Research Group
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]


Other Journals


Centers for Disease Control


National Institutes of Health


United Nations


House Judiciary Committee Hearing Publication


Centers for Disease Control
Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research
DHHS, Administration for Children and Families
UK Data Archive (Essex University)



Census Bureau Report: "A Profile of Older Workers in Virginia," by Nick Carroll and Cynthia Taeuber (Local Employment Dynamics LED/OW-VA, July 2004, .pdf format, 22p.). The report is linked to from a Census Bureau news release: "As It Ages, Virginia's Work Force Remains on the Job" (CB04-137, Aug. 18, 2004).

Click on "A Profile of Older Workers in Virginia" for link to full text.

_MMWR_ HIV/AIDS Special Surveillance Report: "Supplemental Surveillance Needs of States with Low-to-Moderate HIV/AIDS Prevalence 2004" (HIV/AIDS Special Surveillance Report No. 3, 2004, .pdf format, 22p.).

Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation Reports:

A. "Core Performance Indicators for Homeless-Serving Programs Administered by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services: Final Report," by John Trutko and Burt Barnow (September 2003).

B. "The Use of TANF Work-Oriented Sanctions in Illinois, New Jersey, and South Carolina: Final Report," by LaDonna Pavetti, Michelle K. Derr, Gretchen Kirby, Robert G. Wood, and Melissa A. Clark (April 2004).

Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Inspector General Report: "States' Progress in Reducing the Number of Uninsured Children" (OEI-05-03-00280, August 2004, .pdf format, 33p.).

National Center for Education Statistics Report, Periodical:

A. "Teacher Attrition and Mobility: Results from the Teacher Follow-up Survey 2000-01," (NCES 2004-301, August 2004, .pdf format 72p.)

B. "Education Statistics Quarterly (Vol. 5, No. 4, 2004, .pdf format 166p.). "The Quarterly offers an accessible, convenient overview of all NCES products released in a given quarter. Each issue includes: short publications (those less than 15 pages in length) in their entirety, executive summaries of longer publications, descriptive paragraphs of other NCES products, as well as notices about training and funding opportunities. In addition, each issue includes a featured publication with invited commentary pieces, a note on a current topic from a staff member, and a message from NCES. This issue contains a complete annual index of NCES publications."

Bureau of Labor Statistics News Release: "Summer Youth Labor Force: 2004" (August 2004, ASCII text and .pdf format, 8p.).

Bureau of Justice Statistics Compendium Update: "The Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics" has been updated at its online home at the University of Albany [New York].

Click on "(" for link to interactive sourcebook (Microsoft Excel and .pdf format).

National Science Foundation Reports, InfoBrief:

A. "Academic Research and Development Expenditures: Fiscal Year 2002: Detailed Statistical Tables" (NSF 04-330, July 2004, .pdf and Microsoft Excel format, 293p.). Note: Excel tables can be accessed from the hypertext format link.

B. "Federal Funds for Research and Development: Fiscal Years 1970-2003; Federal Obligations for Research by Agency and Detailed Field of Science and Engineering" (NSF 04-335, August 2004, Microsoft Excel and .pdf format, 202p.). Note: Excel tables can be accessed from the hypertext format link.

C. "Federal Funds for Research and Development, Research to Universities and Colleges by Agency and Field of Science: Fiscal Years 1973-2003" (NSF 04-332, 2004, Microsoft Excel and .pdf format, 116p.). Note: Excel tables can be accessed from the hypertext format link.

D. "More Than One-Fifth of All Individuals Employed in Science and Engineering Occupations Have Less Than a Bachelor's Degree Education," by John Tsapogas (NSF 04-333, August 2004, HTML and .pdf format, 3p.).

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Report: "National Summary of the 2001 and 2002 Jurisdictional Reports Against the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Performance Indicators" (IHW 12, August 2004, .pdf format, 218p.). "This report is the first report against the refined set of indicators endorsed by the Australian Health Ministers' Advisory Council (AHMAC) in 2000, and the fourth time that all jurisdictions have reported against a set of national performance indicators for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health. AHMAC produces these reports in order to inform policy makers and senior government officials on aspects of, and trends in, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health. The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare compiled this report for the Statistical Information Management Group on behalf of AHMAC."

National Academy Press Monographs:

A. _Eliminating Health Disparities: Measurement and Data Needs_, edited by Michele Ver Ploeg and Edward Perrin (Panel on DHHS Collection of Race and Ethnic Data, National Research Council, 2004, OpenBook format, 310p.). Note: Print copy order information is available at the site.

B. _Licensing Geographic Data and Services_ (Committee on Licensing Geographic Data and Services, National Research Council, 2004, OpenBook format, 298p.). Note: Print copy order information is available at the site.

C. _Strengthening Peer Review in Federal Agencies that Support Education Research_, edited by Lisa Towne, Jack M. Fletcher, and Lauress L. Wise (Committee on Research in Education, National Research Council, 2004, OpenBook format, 104p.). Note: Print copy order information is available at the site.

Urban Institute Report: "Declining Employment among Young Black Less-Educated Men: The Role of Incarceration and Child Support," by Harry Holzer, Paul Offner, and Elaine Sorensen (April 2004, .pdf format, 41p.).

Kaiser Family Foundation Report: "Survey of Americans on HIV/AIDS -- Part Three: Experiences and Opinions by Race/Ethnicity and Age (August 2004, Summary and Chartpack,.pdf format, 44p., Survey Toplines, 25p.). "These findings are the third part of a national survey of Americans~R views on HIV/AIDS, "Survey of Americans on HIV/AIDS," conducted in spring 2004. It explores the views and experiences of, as well as the key differences among, African Americans, Latinos, Whites, and young people. The first part of the survey, on global HIV/AIDS, was released on June 2, 2004. The second part of the survey, on HIV Testing, was released on June 15, 2004. The survey findings were released at an August 4, 2004 briefing for journalists held in conjunction with a day-long seminar conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation in partnership with the UNITY: Journalists of Color conference in Washington, DC."

Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical: _The Guttmacher Report on Public Policy_ (Vol. 7, No. 3, August 2004, HTML and .pdf format).

Population Reference Bureau Reports:

A. "2004 World Population Data Sheet" (August 2004, .pdf format, 16p.).

Click on "PDF" for full text.

B. "Improving Reproductive Health in Romania" (2004, .pdf format, 6p.).

_British Medical Journal_ Article: "Development of an AIDS vaccine: perspective from the South African AIDS Vaccine Initiative," by Timothy J Tucker and Gatsha Mazithulela (_BMJ_ Education and Debate, Vol. 329, No. 7463, Aug. 21, 2004, HTML and .pdf format, p. 454-456).

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 4, No. 34, August 23, 2004). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

NLS (National Longitudinal Survey) Bibliography Updates: Note: These citations, along with all of the NLS bibliography, can be found at:

Note: Where available, direct links to full text have been provided. These references represent updated citations from Jun. 30, 2004 - Aug. 20, 2004.

The Detailed Age Trajectory of Oral Vocabulary Knowledge: Differences by Class and Race
Social Science Research 33,3 (September 2004): 464-497
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79
ID Number: 4626
Publisher: Academic Press, Inc.

School Dropout and Subsequent Offending: Distinguishing Selection from Causation
Master's Thesis, University of Maryland - College Park, 2004. MAI 42 (04) (2004): 1170
Cohort(s): NLSY97
ID Number: 4627
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information and Learning

A Multilevel Analysis of Young Adult Migration, 1980-1998
Ph.D. Dissertation, Utah State University, 2002
Cohort(s): NLSY79
ID Number: 4628
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, now Bell and Howell Information and Learning

Home alone: supervision after school and child behavior
Journal of Public Economics 88, 9-10 ( August, 2004): 1835-1848
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
ID Number: 4630
Publisher: University of Texas

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University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Demography and Ecology: "Partnerships and Parenthood: A Comparative View of Cohabitation, Marriage and Childbearing," by Elizabeth Thomson (WP 2003-18, 2004, .pdf format, 40p.).

University of Michigan Population Studies Center: "Considerations and Recommendations in Undertaking Population Projections for South Africa Intended to Assess the Impact and Consequences of HIV/AIDS," by Barbara A. Anderson and Johan A. van Zyl (PSC Research Report 04-561, August 2004, .pdf format, 25p.).


This paper discusses the use of population projections for South Africa in estimating the future demographic impact of HIV/AIDS. The issues raised here apply to projections generally and to projections of the impact of HIV/AIDS in other countries. This paper focuses on preliminary analysis of assumptions underlying factors that influence the results of a population projection -- especially assessment of the robustness of the projections to violations of these assumptions. This preliminary sensitivity analysis should allow final projections to be carried out under a manageable number of combinations of assumptions. The authors make 11 specific recommendations for future projections intended to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS.

Click on PDF icon for full text.

National Bureau of Economic Research:

A. "Health in an Age of Globalization," by Angus Deaton (w10669, August 2004, .pdf format, 45p.).


Disease has traveled with goods and people since the earliest times. Armed globalization spread disease, to the extent of eliminating entire populations. The geography of disease shaped patterns of colonization and industrialization throughout the now poor world. Many see related threats to public health from current globalization. Multilateral and bilateral trade agreements do not always adequately represent the interests of poor countries, the General Agreement on Trade in Services may restrict the freedom of signatories to shape their own health delivery systems, and it remains unclear whether current arrangements for intellectual property rights are in the interests of citizens of poor countries with HIV/AIDS. However, to the extent that globalization promotes economic growth, population health may benefit, and there has been substantial reductions in poverty and in international inequalities in life-expectancy over the last 50 years. Although there is a strong inverse relationship between the poverty and life-expectancy in levels, gains in life expectancy have been only weakly correlated with growth rates and, in the last decade, the HIV/AIDS epidemic has widened international inequalities in life expectancy. The rapid transmission of health knowledge and therapies from one rich country to another has led to a swift convergence of adult mortality rates among the rich of the world, particularly men. Globalization would do much for global health if transmission from rich to poor countries could be accelerated.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address for full text.

B. "Preschool, Day Care, and Afterschool Care: Who's Minding the Kids?" by David Blau and Janet Currie (w10670, August 2004, .pdf format, 126p.).


The majority of children in the U.S. and many other high-income nations are now cared for many hours per week by people who are neither their parents nor their school teachers. The role of such preschool and out of school care is potentially two-fold: First, child care makes it feasible for parents to be employed. Second, early intervention programs and after school programs aim to enhance child development, particularly among disadvantaged children. Corresponding to this distinction, the literature has two branches. The first focuses on the market for child care and analyzes factors affecting the supply, demand, and quality of care. The second focuses on child outcomes and asks whether certain types of programs can ameliorate the effects of early disadvantage. The primary goal of this review is to bring the two literatures together in order to suggest ways that both may be enhanced. Accordingly, we provide an overview of the number of children being cared for in different sorts of arrangements; describe theory and evidence about the nature of the private child care market; and discuss theory and evidence about government intervention in the market for child care. Our summary suggests that additional research is necessary to highlight the ways that government programs and market provided child care interact with each other.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address for full text.

C. "Refugees, Asylum Seekers and Policy in Europe," by Timothy J. Hatton and Jeffrey G. Williamson (w10680, August 2004, .pdf format, 42p.).


The number of refugees worldwide is now 12 million, up from 3 million in the early 1970s. And the number seeking asylum in the developed world increased tenfold, from about 50,000 per annum to half a million over the same period. Governments and international agencies have grappled with the twin problems of providing adequate humanitarian assistance in the Third World and avoiding floods of unwanted asylum seekers arriving on the doorsteps of the First World. This is an issue that is long on rhetoric, as newspaper reports testify, but surprisingly short on economic analysis. This paper draws on the recent literature, and ongoing research, to address a series of questions that are relevant to the debate. First, we examine the causes of refugee displacements and asylum flows, focusing on the effects of conflict, political upheaval and economic incentives to migrate. Second, we examine the evolution of policies toward asylum seekers and the effects of those policies, particularly in Europe. Finally, we ask whether greater international coordination could produce better outcomes for refugee-receiving countries and for the refugees themselves.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address for full text.

D. "Demand for Illicit Drugs by Pregnant Women," by Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan, Nancy E. Reichman, and Dhaval Dave (w10688, August 2004, .pdf format, 37p.).


We use survey data that have been linked to medical records data and city-level drug prices to estimate the demand for illicit drugs among pregnant women. The prevalence of prenatal drug use based on post partum interviews was much lower than that based on evidence in the mothers' and babies' medical records. We found that a $10 increase in the retail price of a gram of pure cocaine decreases illicit drug use by 12 to 15%. The estimated price effects for heroin are lower than for cocaine and are less robust across alternative model specifications. This study provides the first estimates of the effects of drug prices on prenatal drug use and yields important information about the potential of drug enforcement as a tool for improving birth outcomes.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address for full text.

E. "Do Tenured and Tenure-Track Faculty Matter?" by Ronald G. Ehrenberg and Liang Zhang (w10695, August 2004, .pdf format, 20p.).

During the last two decades, there has been a significant growth in the share of faculty members at American colleges and universities that are employed in part-time or in full-time non tenure-track positions. Our study is the first to address whether the increased usage of such faculty adversely affects undergraduate students' graduation rates. Using institutional level panel data from the College Board and other sources, our econometric analyses suggest that the increased usage of these faculty types does adversely affect graduation rates of students at 4-year colleges, with the largest impact on students being felt at the public masters-level institutions.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address for full text.

University of Rochester [New York] Economics Department: "Marriage and Divorce since World War II: Analyzing the Role of Technological Progress on the Formation of Households," by Jeremy Greenwood and Nezih Guner (Economie D'Avant Garde Research Reports, No. 8, July 2004, .pdf format, 34p.).


Since World War II there has been: (i) a rise in the fraction of time that married households allocate to market work, (ii) an increase in the rate of divorce, and (iii) a decline in the rate of marriage. What can explain this? It is argued here that technological progress in the household sector has saved on the need for labor at home. This makes it more feasible for singles to maintain their own home, and for married women to work. To address this question, a search model of marriage and divorce is developed. Household production is subject to labor-saving technological progress.

Click on "download the selected file" for full text.

World Bank Development Research Group: "If You Build It, Will They Come? School Availability and School Enrollment in 21 Poor Countries," by Deon Filmer (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3340, June 2004, .pdf format, 23p.).


Increasing the supply of schools is commonly advocated as a policy intervention to promote schooling. Analysis of the relationship between the school enrollment of 6 to 14 year olds and the distance to primary and secondary schools in 21 rural areas in low-income countries (including some of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa) reveals that the two are often statistically significantly related. However, the magnitudes of the associations are small. Simulating big reductions in distance yields only small increases in average school participation, and only small reductions in within-country inequality. The data are mostly cross-sectional and therefore it is difficult to assess the degree to which results might be driven by endogenous school placement. Data can be geographically matched over time in three of the study countries and under some assumptions the results from these countries are consistent with no substantial bias in the cross-sectional estimates. Although increasing school availability by decreasing the average distance to schools can be a tool for increasing enrollments, it cannot be expected to have a substantial effect. Other interventions, such as those geared toward increasing the demand for schooling or increasing the quality of schooling should be prioritized.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: "SHA [System of Health Accounts]-Based National Health Accounts in Thirteen OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," by Eva Orosz and David Morgan (OECD Health Working Papers No. 16, August 2004, .pdf format, 147p.).

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]: "Family Structure and Child Outcomes in the United States and Sweden," by Anders Bjorklund, Donna K. Ginther, Marianne Sundstrom (Discussion Paper 1259, August 2004, .pdf format, 22p.).


It is well known that children reared in non-intact families on average have less favorable educational outcomes than children reared in two-parent families. Evidence from the United States and Sweden indicates that living in a non-intact family is correlated with lower educational attainment. In this paper we compare the relationships between family structure and children~Rs outcomes in terms of educational attainment and earnings using data from Sweden and the United States. Comparing the United States and Sweden is interesting because both family structure and public policy environments in the two countries differ significantly. Family structure could potentially have a less negative effect in Sweden than in the United States because of the extensive social safety net provided by that country. We find, however, the associations between family structure and children~Rs outcomes to be remarkably similar in the United States and Sweden even though the policy and social environments differ between the two countries; living in a non-intact family is negatively related to child outcomes. This relationship is weakened when we control for other family characteristics, such as time lived with full and half siblings. In addition, when we use sibling difference models to take account of unobserved family characteristics, the relationship is no longer statistically significant. Taken together, our results suggest that the true effect of family structure is more complex than the biological relationship of parents to children in both Sweden and the United States.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

B. click on "browse by publication"
C. Click the "fax/ariel" radio button, type the Journal Name in the "by words in the title" search box and click "search".
D. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

American Economic Review (Vol. 94, No. 2 and vol. 94, no. 3, 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library and the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of these databases and this issue.

Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal (Vol. 33, No. 1, September 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Gender and Society (Vol. 18, No. 4, 2004).

Social Work (Vol. 49, No. 3, 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and these issues.

Other Journals:

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 160, No. 5, Sep. 1, 2004).

Sociological Theory (Vol. 22, No. 3, September 2004).

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Centers for Disease Control: Statistician (Demography) GS-1530 - 12/13. For more information see:

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National Institutes of Health:

A. Population Infrastructure Research Program - FY05 (RFA-HD-04-022, Aug. 16, 2004). For more information see:

B. Developmental Infrastructure for Population (PAR-04-138, Aug. 16, 2004). For more information see:

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United Nations: "United Nations Symposium on Population and Housing Censuses," to be held Sep. 13-14, 2004, in New York, New York. For more information see:

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House Judiciary Committee Hearing Publication: "Federal Marriage Amendment (The Musgrave Amendment)," a hearing held May 13, 2004 (House Serial Publication No. 90, ASCII text and .pdf format, 201p.).

Scroll to or "find in page" "Serial No. 90" (without the quotes).

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Centers for Disease Control: CDC has announced, in the latest _Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (Vol. 53, No. 52, Aug. 20, 2004, p. 743), the release of BRFSS Maps. "BRFSS Maps is an Internet-based Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) mapping application that allows users to map BRFSS data interactively for state and metropolitan/micropolitan statistical areas (MMSAs). Beginning with 2002 BRFSS data, visitors to the BRFSS website can create, save, and print state- and MMSA-level maps for health-related risk factors." for more information, as well as a link to the application see:

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research: ICPSR at the University of Michigan has recently released the following datasets, which may be of interest to demography researchers. Note: Some ICPSR studies are available only to ICPSR member institutions. To find out whether your organization is a member, and whether or not it supports ICPSR Direct downloading, see:

British Social Attitudes Survey, 2000 (#3899)

British Social Attitudes Survey, 2001

Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS): Note: This is a concatenated 1992-2002 dataset made available by ICPSR's Substance Abuse and Mental Health Data Archive (SAMHDA). It is only available via ICPSR's Data Analysis System (DAS) at this time.

Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families: "Change in Numbers of TANF Families and Recipients from December 2002 to December 2003" (August 2004). The data is linked from an HHS news release: "Secretary Thompson Announces TANF Caseloads Declined in 2003" (Aug. 23, 2004).

Link is at the bottom of the news release.

UK Data Archive (Essex University): The UK Data Archive has recently added the following datasets to its holdings. Note: There may be charges or licensing requirements on holdings of the UK Data Archive. For more information see:

General Household Survey, 2002-2003 (#4981)

Survey of Personal Incomes, 2001-2002: Public Use Tape (#4983)

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706