Current Demographic Research Report #65, January 10, 2005.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau News Release, Facts for Features
Centers for Disease Control AIDS Statistics
National Institutes of Health News Releases
Bureau of Labor Statistics Periodical, Highlights
Department of Housing and Urban Development Periodical
United Nations Children's Fund Report
National Science Foundation Report
National Academies Press Monograph
Rand Corporation Monograph
Urban Institute Report
Population Reference Bureau Articles
Roper Center Public Opinion Matters
Education Trust Report
Info Health Pop Reporter
_Science_ Article Summary
Reuters Health Article
National Survey of Families and Households Bibliography Update


National Bureau of Economic Research
Penn Institute for Economic Research (PIER)
Louisiana State University Department of Economics
World Bank Development Programme
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)


Other Journals


House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hearing Publication


Census Bureau
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research
China Health and Nutrition Survey


World Health Organization South Asia Earthquake and Tsunamis
National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS)



Census Bureau News Release, Facts for Features:

A. National Mailing of New American Community Survey Marks Historic Shift for Census Bureau (CB05-AC.01, Jan. 10, 2005).

B. "Martin Luther King Jr. Day (Jan. 17) and African-American History Month: February 2005 (Census Bureau Facts for Features CB05-FF.01-2, Jan. 10, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, 5p.).



Centers for Disease Control AIDS Statistics: "Basic Statistics," on AIDS has been updated through 2003, reflecting data in "CDC HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report: HIV Infection and AIDS in the United States, 2003" (discussed in CDERR #61, Dec. 6, 2004--

National Institutes of Health News Releases:

A. "Brief Encounters Can Provide Motivation To Reduce or Stop Drug Abuse" (Jan. 5, 2005).

B. "Scientists Discover Key Genetic Factor in Determining HIV/AIDS Risk" (Jan.
6, 2005).

Department of Health and Human Services Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Report: "Smoked Methamphetamine / Amphetamines, 1992-2002" (Drug and Alcohol Services Information System (DASIS), January 2005, HTML and .pdf format, 3p.).

Bureau of Labor Statistics Periodical, Highlights:

A. _Monthly Labor Review_ (Vol. 127, No. 12, December 2004, .pdf format).

Note: This is a temporary address. When the next _MLR_ is released, this one, along with all others back to 1983, will be available at:

B. "Current Employment Statistics Highlights: December 2004" (January 2005, .pdf format, 11p.).

Department of Housing and Urban Development Periodical: _ResearchWorks_ (Vol. 1, No. 9, November/December 2004, .pdf format).

United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Report: "Children's Well-Being in Small Island Developing States and Territories" (December 2004, .pdf format, 34p.). "Small island developing states and territories face common challenges in several areas including climate change, natural disasters, tourism, management of wastes, land resources and science and technology, all identified in the Barbados Programme of Action endorsed by 111 governments in 1994. In these areas, UNICEF, in partnership with others, focuses on child survival, education, child protection, adolescent development and HIV/AIDS. This publication provides a regional mapping of the situation of children in small island developing states and territories, including key indicators of their well-being, and outlines recent UNICEF-supported actions towards their sustainable development."

Click on "PDF" for full text.

National Science Foundation Report: "Federal R&D Funding by Budget Function Fiscal Years 2003-05" (NSF 05-303, January 2005, Microsoft Excel and .pdf format, 60p.). Note: Excel tables can be accessed from the HTML format option.

National Academies Press Monograph: _Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review_, edited by Charles F. Wellford, John V. Pepper, and Carol V. Petrie (Committee on Law and Justice, National Research Council, 2004, OpenBook format, 360p.). Note: ordering information for a print copy is available at the site.

Rand Corporation Monograph: _California's K-12 Public Schools: How Are They Doing?" by Stephen J. Carroll, Cathy Krop, Jeremy Arkes, Peter A. Morrison and Ann Flanagan (MG-186-EDU, 2005, .pdf format, 216p.). Note: Ordering information for a print copy is available at the site.


This report describes California's K-12 pubic schools--specifically, their student population, the resources they are provided (finances, teachers, facilities), and their outcomes. It describes both student academic achievement and outcomes that schools may influence and that are inadequately captured in test scores. The report analyzes trends within the state and compares California to other states and to the nation as a whole.

Urban Institute Report: "The Cost of Protecting Vulnerable Children IV: How Child Welfare Funding Fared during the Recession," by Cynthia Andrews Scarcella, Roseana Bess, Erica H. Zielewski, Lindsay Warner, and Rob Geen (December 2004, .pdf format, 180p.).

Population Reference Bureau Articles:

A. "Full-Time Work No Guarantee of Livelihood for Many U.S. Families," by Robert Lalasz (January 2005).

B. "Turning Health Research Into Action," by Debra Anthony (January 2005).

C. "Trends in the Well-Being of America's Children," by William P. O'Hare (December 2004).

D. "Rural Children Lag in Early Childhood Educational Skills," by Charles Dervarics (January 2005).

Roper Center Public Opinion Matters: The latest issue of "Public Opinion Matters" (Roper Center, University of Connecticut), concerns "Public Opinion on Family." Included are selected questions from Roper's 400,000 question iPOLL database, as well as links to selected relevant articles and Roper surveys.;start=HS_special_topics?Topic=family

Education Trust Report: "Stalled in Secondary: A Look at Student Achievement Since the No Child Left Behind Act" (January 2005, .pdf format 13p.). The report, along with state sets of state results (.pdf format) is linked to from an Education Trust press release: Stalled in Secondary: Student Achievement Lags in Middle Grades and High School" (Jan. 6, 2005).

The links are on the right side of the page.

More information on the Education Trust:

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 5, No. 1 Jan. 10, 2005). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

Note: At the time of this mailing, this article seems to be available in Spanish only.

_Science_ Article Summary: "Will Vaccines Be Available for the Next Influenza Pandemic?" by Klaus Stohr and Marja Esveld (_Science_ Enhanced Perspectives, Vol. 306, No. 5705, Dec. 24, 2004, p. 2195-2196).

Reuters Health Article: "It's a boy as China marks 1.3 billionth person," by Benjamin Kang Lim (Reuters Health, Jan. 7, 2005).

National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) Bibliography Update: The following item has been added to the NSFH Bibliography. The entire bibliography is available at:

Cooke, T.J. 2003. "Family Migration and the Relative Earnings of Husbands and Wives." Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 93(2): 341-352.

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National Bureau of Economic Research: "Work and the Disability Transition in 20th Century America," by Sven Wilson, Joseph Burton, Benjamin Howell (w11036, January 2005, .pdf format, 45p.).


Using data from Union Army pensioners and from the National Health Interview Surveys, we estimate that work-disability among white males aged 45-64 was 3.5 times as high in the late 19th century than at the end of the 20th century, including a decline and flattening of the age-profile since 1970. We present a descriptive model of disability that can account for a) the secular decline in prevalence; b) changes in slope of the age-profile; and c) periods of increasing prevalence. The high level and relatively flat slope of the historical disability age-profile is consistent with the early onset of chronic conditions and with high mortality associated with a subset of those conditions. We show that many common conditions in the 19th century have been either eliminated, delayed to later ages, or rendered less disabling by treatment innovations and the transformation of the workplace. These improvements have swamped the effect of declining mortality, which put upward pressure on disability prevalence. Given the low rate of mortality prior to age 65, technological changes will likely induce further reductions in work-disability, though recent increases in the prevalence of asthma and obesity may eventually work against this trend.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address for full text.

Penn Institute for Economic Research (PIER) [University of Pennsylvania]: "Social Isolation and Inequality," by Andrew Postlewaite and Dan Silverman (WP 05-001, December 2004, .pdf format, 25p.).


There is an increasing interest in the concept of social exclusion and the related concept of social isolation and their potential role in understanding inequality. We examine the degree to which voluntary separation from social activities during adolescence affects adult wages. It is well-known that participation in high school athletic programs leads to higher adult wages. We present empirical evidence that this premium is not primarily due to selection on predetermined characteristics valued in the labor market.

Louisiana State University Department of Economics: "What Do We Know About the Impact of AIDS on Cross-Country Income So Far?" by Chris Papageorgiou and Petia Stoytcheva (WP 2005-01, December 2004, .pdf format, 34p.).


This paper sheds new light on the impact of AIDS on cross-country income levels. Our empirical analysis uses data for 89 countries spanning the period 1979 to 2000 during which AIDS has spread across the world. We control for a variety of factors that are potentially related to income as suggested by our empirical model and existing related literature. Using the extended (for human capital) Solow model as our baseline empirical specification, we consider cross-sectional and panel estimation. For the full sample it is shown that AIDS has a negative and significant effect on the level of income in both the cross-sectional, and panel estimations. In addition, using data on age groups we find that only the AIDS coefficient corresponding to the age group 16-34 is significant and obtains a negative sign. When we arbitrarily split our full sample into OECD and non-OECD countries, we find that the AIDS coefficient continues to be negative and significant for the non-OECD subsample but not for the OECD subsample. Finally, using Hansen~Rs (2000) endogenous splitting methodology we find evidences in favor of AIDS as a threshold variable. Our main quantitative result is that an increase in AIDS incidence by 1 in 100,000 people is associated with a 0.003%--0.004% reduction in income per worker.

World Bank Development Programme:

A. "Why Should We Care about Child Labor? The Education, Labor Market, and Health Consequences of Child Labor," by Rajeev H. Dehejia, Kathleen Beegle, and Roberta Gatti (WP 3479, January 2005, .pdf format, 53p.).


Although there is extensive literature on the determinants of child labor and many initiatives aimed at combating it, there is limited evidence on the consequences of child labor on socioeconomic outcomes such as education, wages, and health. Beegle, Dehejia, and Gatti evaluate the causal effect of child labor participation on these outcomes using panel data from Vietnam and an instrumental variables strategy. Five years subsequent to the child labor experience, they find significant negative effects on school participation and educational attainment, but also find substantially higher earnings for those (young) adults who worked as children. The authors find no significant effects on health. Over a longer horizon, they estimate that from age 30 onward the forgone earnings attributable to lost schooling exceed any earnings gain associated with child labor and that the net present discounted value of child labor is positive for discount rates of 11.5 percent or higher. The authors show that child labor is prevalent among households likely to have higher borrowing costs, that are farther from schools, and whose adult members experienced negative returns to their own education. This evidence suggests that reducing child labor will require facilitating access to credit and will also require households to be forward looking.

Click on "PDF" submit your email address after clicking on the envelope icon for full text.

B. "Do Services and Transfers Reach Morocco's Poor? Evidence from Poverty and Spending Maps," by Dominique van de Walle (WP 3478, January 2005, .pdf format, 45p.).


In the absence of household level data on participation in public programs, spending allocations and poverty measures across regions of Morocco are used to infer incidence across poor and non-poor groups and to decompose incidence within rural and urban areas separately, as well as to decompose improvements in enrollment rates across poor and non-poor children by gender. Programs appear to be well targeted to the rural poor but not to the urban poor. Substantial benefits accrue to the urban non-poor, while benefits largely bypass the urban poor. The analysis also uncovers evidence of impressive progress in primary and secondary school enrollments for the poor, as well as for poor girls since 1994. However, here too, the gains are concentrated on the rural poor.

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C. "Parental Education and Children's Schooling Outcomes: Is the Effect Nature, Nurture, or Both? Evidence from Recomposed Families in Rwanda," by Damien de Walque (WP 3483, January 2005, .pdf format, 23p.).


Educated parents tend to have educated children. But is intergenerational transmission of human capital more nature, more nurture, or both? De Walque uses household survey data from Rwanda that contains a large proportion of children living in households without their biological parents. The data allows him to separate genetic from environmental parental influences. The nonrandom placement of children is controlled by including the educational attainment of the absent biological parents and the type of relationship that links the children to their "adoptive" families. The results of the analysis suggest that the nurture component of the intergenerational transmission of human capital is important for both parents, contrary to recent evidence proposed by Behrman and Rosenzweig (2002) and Plug (2004). The author concludes that mothers~R education had no environmental impact on children~Rs schooling. Interestingly, mothers~R education matters more for girls, while fathers~R education is more important for boys. Finally, an important policy recommendation in the African context emerges from the analysis: the risk for orphans or abandoned children to lose ground in their schooling achievements is minimized if they are placed with relatives.

Click on "PDF" submit your email address after clicking on the envelope icon for full text.

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]:

A. "Poverty, Inequality, and Growth in Urban China, 1986-2000," by Xin Meng, Bob Gregory, and Youjuan Wang (Discussion Paper 1452, January 2005, .pdf format, 38p.).


Although urban China has experienced spectacular income growth over the last two decades, increases in inequality, reduction in social welfare provision, deregulation of grain prices, and increases in income uncertainty in the 1990s have increased urban poverty. Using a large repeated cross-section household survey data from 1986 to 2000, this study maps out the change in income, inequality, and poverty over the 15 year period and investigates the determinants of poverty. It is found that the increase in the poverty rate in the 1990s is associated with the increase in the relative food price, and the need to spend on education, housing and medical care which were previously paid by the state. In addition, the increase in the saving rate of the poor due to an increase in income uncertainty contributes significantly to the increase in poverty measured in terms of expenditure. Even though income growth reduces poverty, the radical reform measures implemented in the 1990s have sufficiently offset this gain that urban poverty is higher in 2000 than in 1986.

B. "Labor Market Discrimination and Racial Differences in Premarket Factors," by Pedro Carneiro, James J. Heckman, and Dimitriy V. Masterov (Discussion Paper 1453, January 2005, .pdf format, 46p.).


We investigate the relative significance of differences in cognitive skills and discrimination in explaining racial/ethnic wage gaps. We show that cognitive test scores taken prior to entering the labor market are influenced by schooling. Adjusting the scores for racial/ethnic differences in education at the time the test is taken reduces their role in accounting for the wage gaps. We also consider evidence on parental and child expectations about education and on stereotype-threat effects. We find both factors to be implausible alternative explanations for the gaps we observe. We argue that policies need to address the sources of early skill gaps and to seek to influence the more malleable behavioral abilities in addition to their cognitive counterparts. Such policies are far more likely to be effective in promoting racial and ethnic equality for most groups than are additional civil rights and affirmative action policies targeted at the workplace.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

B. click on "advanced search"
C. Type in your publication name and click "Exact title" radio button
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E. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences (Vol. 27, No. 1, February 2005).

Sociological Methods Research (Vol. 33, No. 3, February 2005).

Other Journals

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 161, No. 2, Jan. 15, 2005).

Medical Care (Vols. 42, 12 and 43, 1, December 2004 and January 2005).

Public Health Reports (Vol. 120, No. 1, January/February 2005). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.



House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hearing Publication: "The Effect of Television Violence on Children: What Policymakers Need to Know," a hearing held Sep. 13, 2004 (House Serial Publication 108-116, ASCII text and .pdf format, 39p.).

Scroll to or "find in page" "108-116" (without the quotes).

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Census Bureau: "July 1, 2004, 18 and Older Population Years for the United States, States and Puerto Rico Population Estimates" (January 2005, comma separated values [.csv] format). At present, 2004 estimates are available for only the states and Puerto Rico.

Bureau of Labor Statistics: "Consumer Expenditure Surveys Quarterly Interview CAPI Survey" (January 2005).

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR): ICPSR at the University of Michigan has recently released the following datasets, which may be of interest to demography researchers. Note: Some ICPSR studies are available only to ICPSR member institutions. To find out whether your organization is a member, and whether or not it supports ICPSR Direct downloading, see:

National Hospital Discharge Survey, 2002 (#4166)

China Health and Nutrition Survey: The University of North Carolina Carolina Population Center has made available "The Record of Household Food Amounts and Record of Individual Daily Food files (c97nutr2 and c97nutr4)" from the 1997 survey. In addition, "27 preliminary 2000 files are now available." For more information see:

Note: Free registration is required to download public use data from this survey.

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World Health Organization South Asia Earthquake and Tsunamis: WHO has created this site as a clearinghouse of information on the recent South Asia disaster. Included are situation reports (discussed in CDERR 64, Jan. 4, 2005--, specific country information, and links to other resources.

National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS): "The National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS) [a project of the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota] is a project to create and freely disseminate a database incorporating all available aggregate census information for the United States between 1790 and 2000." At present, extractable data is available from the 1990 Census. Note 1: Free registration is required before data or geographic shape files can be downloaded. Note 2: This is a beta application at present.

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706