Current Demographic Research Report #7, November 17, 2003.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Federal Bureau of Investigation Report
National Center for Education Statistics Reports
Centers for Disease Control
National Center for Health Statistics Report
Department of Housing and Urban Development Report
Bureau of Justice Statistics Report
Internal Revenue Service Compendium
United Nations Statistics Division Newsletter
World Health Organization Report
_Demographic Research_ Article
Urban Institute Report
Roper Center Public Opinion Matters
_Science_ Viewpoint Article Abstract
Johns Hopkins Pop Reporter Periodical


Princeton University Office of Population Research
London School of Economics Health and Social Care
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Department et Laboratoire D'Economie Theorique et Appliquee (DELTA)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)




Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research
World Bank Living Standards and Measurement Study
Census Bureau
National Center for Education Statistics
Luxembourg Income Study



Federal Bureau of Investigation Report: "Hate Crime Statistics: 2002" (2003, .pdf format, 148p.). Note: Links to earlier reports back to 1995 are available at the site.

Scroll to "Hate Crime Statistics".

National Center for Education Statistics Reports:

A. National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) Reading, the Nation's Report Card, 2003:

B. National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) Mathematics, the Nation's Report Card, 2003:

NAEP Questions Tool:

C. "Staff in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2001, and Salaries of Full-Time Instructional Faculty, 2001-02," by Laura G. Knapp, et. al. (NCES 2004159, November 2003, .pdf format, 75p.).


This report presents information from the Winter 2001-02 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) web-based data collection. Tabulations represent data requested from all postsecondary institutions participating in Title IV federal student financial aid programs. The tables in this publication include data on the number of staff employed in Title IV postsecondary institutions in fall 2001 by primary occupational activity, length of contract/teaching period, employment status, salary class interval, faculty and tenure status, academic rank, race/ethnicity, and gender. Also included are tables on the number of full-time instructional faculty employed in Title IV postsecondary institutions in 2001-02 by length of contract/teaching period, academic rank, gender, and average salaries.

Centers for Disease Control Factsheet, Periodical Article, Surveillance Summary, Compendium:

A. "National Diabetes Factsheet: United States, November 2003 (.pdf format, 8p.).

B. "Tobacco Use Among Middle and High School Students --- United States, 2002 (_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_. Vol. 52, No. 45, Nov. 14, 2003, HTML and .pdf format, p. 1096-1098).



C. "Surveillance for Selected Maternal Behaviors and Experiences Before, During, and After Pregnancy: Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS), 2000, by Letitia M. Williams, Brian Morrow, Amy Lansky, Laurie F. Beck, Wanda Barfield, Kristen Helms, Leslie Lipscomb, and Nedra Whitehead (_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_ Surveillance Summaries (Vol. 52, SS11, November 2003).


D. "United States Cancer Statistics (USCS): 2000 Incidence" (U.S. Cancer Statistics Working Group, 2003, .pdf format, 345p.).


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Cancer Institute (NCI), in collaboration with the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) are pleased to release the second annual United States Cancer Statistics report. This report marks the second time that CDC and NCI have combined cancer incidence data to produce a set of official federal statistics on cancer incidence. This years report features information on cases diagnosed in the year 2000. Cancer incidence data from CDC's National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and NCI's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program are reported for 66 selected primary cancer sites and subsites for males, 70 selected primary cancer sites and subsites for females, and for all cancer sites combined. These data have been assembled into tables and figures that provide specific information with regard to geographic area, race, sex, and age.

CDC press release:

National Center for Health Statistics Report: "Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Children, 2001," by B. Bloom, R.A. Cohen, J.L. Vickerie, and E.A. Wandimu (Vital and Health Statistics Series 10, No. 216, November 2003, .pdf format, 54p.).

Department of Housing and Urban Development Report: "Discrimination in Metropolitan Housing Markets, Phase 3, Native Americans," by Margery Austin Turner and Stephen L. Ross (September 2003, .pdf format, 92p.).


"This study provides estimates of the level of housing discrimination experienced by Native Americans when they search for housing in the metropolitan areas of Minnesota, Montana, and New Mexico. Across all three states, Native Americans receive consistently unfavorable treatment relative to whites in 28.5 percent of rental tests. Systematic discrimination is most observable on measures of availability. That is, whites are told the advertised unit is available, told about similar units, and told about more units than similarly qualified Native American testers. The level of consistent adverse treatment and systematic discrimination experienced by Native Americans in the metropolitan rental markets of the three states is greater than the national levels shown for African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians." Note that this study joins two others, concerning African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians and Pacific Islanders. All can be accessed from:

Bureau of Justice Statistics Report: "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994," by Patrick A. Langan, Erica L. Schmitt, and Matthew R. Durose (NCJ 198281, November 2003, ASCII text and .pdf format, 40p., with .zip compressed spreadsheets).


Presents, for the first time, data on the rearrest, re-conviction, and re-imprisonment of 9,691 male sex offenders, including 4,295 child molesters, who were tracked for 3 years after their release from prisons in 15 States in 1994. The 9,691 are two-thirds of all the male sex offenders released from prisons in the United States in 1994. The study represents the largest followup ever conducted of convicted sex offenders following discharge from prison and provides the most comprehensive assessment of their behavior after release.

Internal Revenue Service Compendium: _Internal Revenue Service Data Book 2002_, November 2003, .pdf format, 66p.).

United Nations Statistics Division Newsletter: UNSD has begun producing a"United Nations Statistics Newsletter." The introductory issue is for November 2003 (.pdf format, 12p.). Future bimonthly newsletters are slated to be available via email (text version with links or .pdf) or print only.

Introductory newsletter:

Free subscription information:

World Health Organization Report: "Social Determinants of Health: The Solid Facts," 2nd edition, edited by Richard Wilkinson and Michael Marmot (2003, .pdf format, 31p.).

_Demographic Research_ Article: Note: _DR_ is "a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research." "Elaboration of the Coale-McNeil Nuptiality Model as The Generalized Log Gamma Distribution New Identity and Empirical Enhancement," by Ryuichi Kaneko (Vol. 9, Article 10, November 2003, .pdf format, p. 224-262).


The first purpose of this paper is to show that recognition of the identity of the Coale-McNeil nuptiality model as the generalized log gamma distribution model should expand its possibility of application. Examples include development of country specific standard first marriage schedule, and incorporation of covariates with and without competing risk framework. The second purpose of the study is to enhance the model ability to trace trajectory of lifetime first marriage schedule by incorporating empirical model of residual pattern so as to ensure precise predictions even for cohorts that have not completed the processes. Illustrative application for estimation of cohort lifetime measures of first marriage of Japanese women is presented. An application for fertility projection applying the model for fertility schedule by birth order is also proposed.

Click on "Enter".

Urban Institute Report: "Social Program Spending and State Fiscal Crises," by Kenneth Finegold, Stephanie Schardin, Elaine Maag, Rebecca Steinbach, David Merriman, and Alan Weil (Assessing the New Federalism Occasional Paper No. 70, November 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 97p.).


"This analysis of seven states (California, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Washington) shows that the severity of the current revenue crisis far exceeds that of the recession that triggered it because states cut taxes and expanded programs based on unsustainable revenue growth during the late 1990s. All of the states studied responded to revenue declines with short-term solutions -- using reserves, transferring other funds to the general fund, refinancing debt, and shifting expenditures or revenues across fiscal years. All but New Jersey and Washington cut spending. Only New Jersey relied heavily on tax increases. The authors suggest that states should be realistic about the sustainability of future revenue trends and should not count on federal help. States should also build up reserves and be able to draw on them when needed, and should make tax policies symmetrical rather than place special barriers against tax increases."

Roper Center [University of Connecticut] Public Opinion Matters: The latest Roper Center "Public Opinion Matters" concerns the topic of "Public Opinion on Alcohol". Included are selected poll results and links to relevant articles.;start=HS_special_topics?Topic=alcohol

_Science_ Viewpoint Article Abstract: "Human Population: The Next Half Century," by Joel E. Cohen (_Science_ Viewpoint, Vol. 302, No. 5648, Nov. 14, 2003, p. 1172-1175).

EurekAlert press release: "By the year 2050, human population could add 2.6 billion people, reports Rockefeller scientist" ((Eurekalert [American Association for the Advancement of Science]), Nov. 13, 2003).

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 3, No. 46, Nov. 11, 2003). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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Princeton University Office of Population Research:"2000 Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study in Taiwan (SEBAS)," by Noreen Goldman; Maxine Weinstein (Georgetown University); Ming-Cheng Chang, Hui-Sheng Lin, Yi-Li Chuang, Yu-Husan Lin, Shu-Hui Lin, I-Wen Liu, and Hsia-Yuan Liu (WP 2003-08, 2003, .pdf format, 114p.).

London School of Economics Health and Social Care Discussion Series: "Is the NHS equitable? A review of the evidence," by Anna Dixon, Julian Le Grand, John Henderson, Richard Murray and Emmi Poteliakhoff (DP11, November 2003, .pdf format, 38p.).

Executive Summary:

The central question of the paper is whether the NHS is inequitable and if so, what form the inequity takes and what are its principal causes. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the meaning of equity in the context of the NHS. The definition adopted regards observed inequalities in utilisation as proxies for inequalities in access. The paper reviews the available evidence on the existence of inequity in the NHS from macro-studies and micro-studies. Evidence from macro- or aggregate studies is not clear-cut. Early studies showed utilisation by higher income groups was higher than lower income groups adjusted for need. More recent studies using similar aggregated data suggest that this pattern has changed and the NHS is now pro-poor. However, a study using more disaggregated data and the majority of the micro-studies suggest that inequities in access persist. There is strong evidence that lower socio-economic groups use services less in relation to need than higher ones from many studies of specific NHS services. An attempt is made to explain the conflict through an assessment of the methodologies and data used. Finally, the paper discusses the evidence concerning potential barriers to access such as lack of suitable transport and restrictions on time; superior connections and communications by middle class patients; and differences in beliefs about severity of illness and the need to seek medical attention. The paper concludes that policy-makers need to understand these barriers to access when devising policy aimed at eliminating persisting inequities in access identified in this review.

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [Bonn, Germany]:

A. "Parental Separation and Well-Being of Youths, by Rainer Winkelmann (Discussion Paper DP 894, October 2003, .pdf format, 20p.).


This paper uses recent data for Germany and a new outcome variable to assess the consequences of parental separation on the well-being of youths. In particular, it is considered how subjective well-being, elicited from an ordinal 11-point general life satisfaction question, differs between youths living in intact and non-intact families, holding many other potential determinants of well-being constant using ordered probit regressions. The main finding of this study is that living in a non-intact family has not the hypothesised large negative effect on child well-being.

B. "Transitions in Welfare Participation and Female Headship," by John M. Fitzgerald and David C. Ribar (Discussion Paper DP 895, October 2003, .pdf format, 35p.).


This study uses data from the 1990, 1992, 1993 and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine how welfare policies and local economic conditions contribute to women's transitions into and out of female headship and into and out of welfare participation. It also examines whether welfare participation is directly associated with longer spells of headship. The study employs a simultaneous hazards approach that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity in all of its transition models and for the endogeneity of welfare participation in its headship model. The estimation results indicate that welfare participation significantly reduces the chances of leaving female headship. The estimates also reveal that more generous welfare benefits contribute indirectly to headship by increasing the chances that mothers will enter welfare. More generous Earned Income Tax Credit benefits are associated with longer spells of headship, non-headship, welfare participation and nonparticipation. Other measures of welfare policies, including indicators for the adoption of welfare waivers and the implementation of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families programs, are generally not significantly associated with headship or welfare receipt. Better economic opportunities are estimated to increase headship but reduce welfare participation among unmarried mothers.

Department et Laboratoire D'Economie Theorique et Appliquee (DELTA) [Paris, France]: " Inequality of Outcomes and Inequality of Opportunities in Brazil," by Franois Bourguignon, Francisco H.G. Ferreira and Marta Menendez (WP 2003-24, October 2003, .pdf format, 43p.).


This paper departs from John Roemer's theory of equality of opportunities. We seek to determine what part of observed outcome inequality may be attributed to differences in observed "circumstances", including family background, and what part is due to "personal efforts". We use a micro-econometric technique to simulate what the distribution of outcomes would look like if "circumstances" were the same for everybody. This technique is applied to Brazilian data from the 1996 household survey, both for earnings and for household incomes. It is shown that observed circumstances are a major source of outcome inequality in Brazil, probably more so than in other countries for which information is available. Nevertheless, the level of inequality after observed circumstances are equalized remains very high in Brazil.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) [Laxenburg Austria]: "Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate Change," by Brian C. O'Neill (Interim Report IR-03-051, October 2003, .pdf and PostScript format, 22p.)


Future changes in population size, composition, and spatial distribution are key factors in the analysis of climate change, and their future evolution is highly uncertain. In climate change analyses, population uncertainty has traditionally been accounted for by using alternative scenarios spanning a range of outcomes. This paper illustrates how conditional probabilistic projections offer a means of combining probabilistic approaches with the scenario-based approach typically employed in the development of greenhouse gas emissions projections. The illustration combines a set of emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with existing probabilistic population projections from IIASA. Results demonstrate that conditional probabilistic projections have the potential to account more fully for uncertainty in emissions within conditional storylines about future development patterns, to provide a context for judging the consistency of individual scenarios with a given storyline, and to provide insight into relative likelihoods across storylines, at least from a demographic perspective. They may also serve as a step toward more comprehensive quantification of uncertainty in emissions projections.

Click on PDF or PS icon for .pdf or PostScript full text.

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) [Milan, Genoa, Venice, Turin, Italy]:"Mapping Diversity in Social History," by Ercole Sori (Working Paper 70.03, July 2003, .pdf format, 23p.).


The paper is an overview of diversity in history, starting as far back as the societies in classical Ancient Europe and traditional non-European societies, where differentiation was basically between the enslaved and free population and the out-of-caste in India. With the end of slavery the European feudal society adopted a functionalist tripartition based on priests, warriors and peasants. The analysis continues in pre-industrial Europe (1500-1800), where in many cities class struggle was represented by the conflicts between crafts and between cities, with some participation of the elites. In 17th century England only one class existed, and class struggle was the struggle inside one class. Other considerations on the stratification of pre-industrial society are related to classes inferred from empirical subjectivity, social hierarchy and horizontal and vertical solidarity. In industrial society, the paper discusses the Marxian, Weberian and Marshall models and the syncretism between status and class. The second part of the paper is devoted to diversity outside formal society with the definitions of the processes that generate the marginalization of people and social groups, while the third part of the paper concerns the urban milieu and social integration/differentiation. Considerations are made on urban topography (e.g. ghettos, "miracle courts", etc.) and on the relationship between topographic position within the urban tissue and positioning in the social pyramid. Finally, the last part of the paper is an excursus on the historiographic assumptions and policies toward diversity and marginality.

Click on PDF at the bottom of the page for full text.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

B. click on "browse by publication"
C. Click the "fax/ariel" radio button, type the Journal Name in the "by words in the title" search box and click "search".
D. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

Journal of the American Statistical Association (Vol. 98, No. 463, 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Journal of Family History (Vol. 28, No. 4, 2003).

Journal of Family Issues (Vol. 24, No. 7, 2003).

Journal of Human Resources (Vol. 38, No. 4 and Vol. 38, Supplement, 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

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Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research: ICPSR at the University of Michigan has recently released the following datasets, which may be of interest to demography researchers. Note: Some ICPSR studies are available only to ICPSR member institutions. To find out whether your organization is a member, and whether or not it supports ICPSR Direct downloading, see:

Community Tracking Study Physician Survey, 2000-2001: [United States] (#3820)

Marital Instability Over the Life Course [United States]: A Six-Wave Panel Study, 1980, 1983, 1988, 1992-1994, 1997, 2000 (#3812)

National Health Interview Survey, 1994: Second Longitudinal Study on Aging, Wave 3, 2000 (#3807)

World Bank Living Standards and Measurement Study: Albania, 2002 has been added to the LSMS data collection. Basic documentation (English) and questionnaires (English and Albanian) are all available in .pdf format. Data is available free of charge after signing a LSMS data agreement form.

Scroll to "Albania 2002".

Census Bureau: "State and Local Government Employment and Payroll Data: 2002" (November 2003, ASCII text, Micorsoft Excel and HTML format). "These statistics cover summary information on the number of employees and gross payrolls by governmental function. The statistics are presented by geographic area -- states, the District of Columbia, and National Totals. Employment and gross payroll data pertain to a period of one month. Gross payrolls are 31-day monthly equivalent values and are in whole dollars." The data are linked to from a Census Bureau news release: "State and Local Government Workers Exceed 15 Million, Census Bureau Reports" (Nov. 12, 2003).

Click on "2002 Census of State and Local Government Employment and Payroll" for link to data.

National Center for Education Statistics:

A. Common Core of Data Local Education Agency Dropout and Completion Data: School Year 2000-01 (NCES 2004315, November 2003, .zip compressed ASCII, or SAS format, with documentation in .pdf and ASCII text format).

B. CD-ROM: Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study Data Analysis System (DAS) B&B:2000/01 (NCES 2003173, September 2003). Note: The CD-ROM can be obtained from NCES free of charge via a link from the site.

C. CD-ROM: Common Core of Data (CCD) School Years 1996-97 through 2000-01 (NCES 2003410, October 2003). Note: The CD-ROM can be obtained from NCES free of charge via a link from the site.

Luxembourg Income Study: The Luxembourg Income Study has recently added an interactive web tabulator for its data. "This service permits registered LIS users to design and create tables based on the underlying LIS data sets. At the moment we are only able to provide a limited number of datasets and a restricted set of variables as not all member countries have agreed to permit access through our web service. The variables selected for inclusion in this first version of the tabulator cover basic demographic, income, and poverty measures that are key elements of the LIS data. In the future we hope to be able to provide access to an expanded group of data sets and to include a large subset of variables." Note that"all restrictions related to the use of data derived from the LIS data apply to the tabulations generated through these new services," and that users must register with LIS, and obtain a userid and password before access is allowed.

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706