Current Demographic Research Report #71, February 21, 2005.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Centers for Disease Control Periodical Articles:
World Health Organization Report, Feature
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Compendium
Government Printing Office Compendium
Department of Health and Human Services Poverty Guidelines
Congressional Budget Office Letter
National Center for Education Statistics Report
National Institute of Justice Compendium
US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Reports
UK Office For National Statistics Report
Population Reference Bureau Article
Urban Institute Reports
Kaiser Family Foundation Factsheet
Brookings Institution Report
Women Work! Report
Children's Defense Fund Fact Sheets
_Journal of Personality and Social Psychology_ Article
_New England Journal of Medicine_ Various
_Journal of the American Medical Association_ Book Review Extracts
_Lancet_ Editorial, Article Abstract
Info Health Pop. Reporter
NLS Bibliography Updates


University of Wisconsin Center for Demography and Ecology
California Center for Population Research
National Bureau of Economic Research
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)
University of Leicester [UK] Economics Department
Economic and Social Research Institute (IRES)
Monash University Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics


Other Journals


National Center for Education Statistics Workshops
Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science Workshops


Bureau of Labor Statistics
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
Luxembourg Income Study


United Nations Statistics Division



Centers for Disease Control Periodical Articles:

A. "Tuberculosis Transmission in a Homeless Shelter Population --- New York, 2000--2003" (_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 54, No. 6, Feb. 18, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, p. 149-152).

B. "QuickStats: Primary Contraceptive Methods Among Women Aged 15--44 Years --- United States, 2002" (_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 54, No. 6, Feb. 18, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, p. 152).

.pdf format for both articles:

Department of Health and Human Services Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Report: "Substance Use and Need for Treatment Among Youths Who Have Been in Foster Care" (National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), February 2005, HTML and .pdf format, 3p.).

World Health Organization Report, Feature:

A. "How can health care systems effectively deal with the major health care needs of homeless people?" (WHO Health Education Network, January 2005, HTML and .pdf format, 20p.).

B. "Great Expectations" Update: WHO's "Great Expectations" website (discussed in CDERR #51, Sep. 27, 2004 ( has been updated to include the story of the women and their children one week after birth.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Compendium: _World Population Monitoring 2003: Population, Education, and Development_ (February 2005, .pdf format, 189p.).

Government Printing Office Compendium: _2005 Economic Report of the President_ (February 2005, .pdf format, 338p., with statistical tables also available in Microsoft Excel format).

Department of Health and Human Services Poverty Guidelines: "2005 HHS Poverty Guidelines: One Version of the [U.S.] Federal Poverty Measure" (_Federal Register_ Vol. 70, No. 33, Feb. 18. 2005, p. 8373-8375).

Congressional Budget Office Letter: "Letter to the Honorable Jim McDermott regarding the potential additional costs that states could incur to implement the work participation requirements specified in H.R. 240 for those receiving Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)" (Feb. 9, 2005, .pdf format, 4p.).

PDF tab at top right corner of page retrieves full text.

National Center for Education Statistics Report: "Comparative Indicators of Education in the United States and Other G8 Countries: 2004," by Anandita Sen, Lisette Partelow, and David C. Miller (NCES 2005021, February 2005, .pdf format, 86p.).


This report shows how the U.S. education system compares to other major industrialized countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russian Federation, United Kingdom) in four areas: (1) the context of education; (2) pre-primary and primary education; (3) secondary education; and (4) higher education. This report is an update of the 2002 G8 Report, and is part of a series to be published in alternate years.

National Institute of Justice Compendium: "Compendium of Research on Violence Against Women, 1993-2004," by Leora N. Rosen (February 2005, .pdf format, 138p.). This compendium "is a compilation of NIJ-funded research on violence against women. The description of each project includes the value of the grant, principal investigator, NIJ monitor, and status of the project."

US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Reports:

A. "Issues in Food Assistance--Effects of WIC Participation on Children's Food Consumption," by Victor Oliveira and Ram Chandran (Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Report FANRR26-1, February 2005, .pdf format, 4p.).


This study compared consumption patterns of WIC children with those of three different comparison groups: eligible nonparticipating children living in non-WIC households, eligible nonparticipating children living in WIC households, and children living in households whose income is too high to be eligible for WIC. The study provides strong evidence that participation in the WIC program increases consumption of at least some types of WIC-approved foods.

B. "Children's Consumption of WIC-Approved Foods," by Victor Oliveira and Ram Chandran (Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Report No. FANRR44, February 2005, .pdf format, 35p.).


This study compared consumption patterns of WIC children with those of three different comparison groups: eligible nonparticipating children living in non-WIC households, eligible nonparticipating children living in WIC households, and children living in households whose income is too high to be eligible for WIC. The study provides strong evidence that participation in the WIC program increases consumption of at least some types of WIC-approved foods.

C. "Nutrition and Health Characteristics of Low-Income Populations," by Biing-Hwan Lin, Elizabeth Frazao, and Katherine Ralston (Agriculture Information Bulletin AIB796, February 2005, .pdf format). This title leads to five separate reports: "Healthy Eating Index"; "Usual Nutrient Intakes"; "Body Weight Status"; "Meal Patterns, Milk and Soft Drink Consumption, and Supplement Use"; and "Clinic Measures of Iron, Folate, Vitamin B12, Cholesterol, Bone Density, and Lead Poisoning."


The five summaries in the Nutrition and Health Characteristics of Low-Income Populations series highlight key findings of the multi-volume Nutrition and Health Outcomes Study. The summaries examine the nutritional and health status of: Food Stamp Program (FSP) participants; Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) participants; school-age children; and older Americans.

D. "The Food Assistance Landscape, March 2005," by Victor Oliveira (Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Report FANRR28-6, February 2005, .pdf format, 6p.).


Expenditures for USDA's 15 food assistance programs totaled $46 billion in fiscal 2004 (October 1, 2003, to September 30, 2004), marking the second consecutive year in which spending exceeded the previous record high. The fiscal 2004 spending level represented a 10-percent increase from the previous fiscal year, the fourth consecutive year in which total food assistance expenditures increased. Five programs--the Food Stamp Program, the National School Lunch Program, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), the School Breakfast Program, and the Child and Adult Care Food Program--accounted for 94 percent of USDA's total expenditures for food assistance. While each of these major programs expanded during fiscal 2004, most of the increase in total food assistance expenditures between fiscal 2003 and fiscal 2004 was due to the increase in Food Stamp Program expenditures.

UK Office For National Statistics Report: "Focus on Social Inequalities: 2004," edited by Penny Babb, Jean Martin and Paul Haezewindt (2004, .pdf format, 112p.).

Population Reference Bureau Article: "Tsunami Exposes Chennai Fisherfolk's Poor Social Conditions," by Asha Krishnakumar (February 2005).

Urban Institute Reports:

A. "Background Report on the Use and Impact of Food Assistance Programs on Indian Reservations," by Kenneth Finegold, Nancy M. Pindus, Laura Wherry, Sandi Nelson, Timothy Triplett, and Randolph Capps (January 2005, .pdf format, 96p.).

B. "Investigation of Programs to Strengthen and Support Healthy Marriages," by Jennifer Ehrle Macomber, Julie Murray, Matthew Stagner (February 2005, .pdf format, 37p.).

Kaiser Family Foundation Factsheet: "Dual Eligibles: Medicaid's Role for Low-Income Medicare Beneficiaries" (February 2005, .pdf format, 2p.). "This fact sheet and set of tables describe the over 7 million "dual eligibles," the low-income elderly and persons with disabilities who are enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid. The fact sheet describes why this population needs Medicaid, what services they receive from Medicaid, and the current policy challenges related to dual eligibles, including the new Medicare prescription drug benefit. The set of tables, prepared by the Urban Institute for the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, presents the most current state-by-state data on Medicaid enrollment and expenditures for dual eligibles.

Brookings Institution Report: "Job Sprawl and the Spatial Mismatch between Blacks and Jobs," by Michael A. Stoll (Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, February 2005, .pdf format, 14p.).

Women Work! Report: " Chutes and Ladders: The Search for Solid Ground for Women in the Workforce" (February 2005, .pdf format, 45p.). The report, as well as an executive summary (.pdf format, 5p.) and state by state data tables (.pdf format), is linked to from a Women Work! press release: "Chutes & Ladders: The Search for Solid Ground for Women in the Workforce: Critical New Study Released" (Feb. 17, 2005).

More information on Women Work!:

Children's Defense Fund Fact Sheets: "State Fact Sheets on Child Welfare Funding" (February 2005, .pdf format).

More information on CDF:

_Journal of Personality and Social Psychology_ Article: "Assortative Mating and Marital Quality in Newlyweds: A Couple-Centered Approach," by Shanhong Luo and Eva C. Klohnen (Vol. 88, No. 2, 2005, .pdf format, p. 304-326). The article is linked from an American Psychological Association press release: "Do Opposites Attract or Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together?" (Feb. 13, 2005).

Link to full text is at the bottom of the news release.

_New England Journal of Medicine_ Perspectives Extracts, Article Abstract, Editorial Extract:

A. "Population and Development--Shifting Paradigms, Setting Goals," by Allan Rosenfield and Karyn Schwartz (Perspectives, Vol. 352, No. 7, February 17, 2005, p. 647-649).

B. "Women, Inequality, and the Burden of HIV," by Bisola O. Ojikutu and Valerie E. Stone (Perspectives, Vol. 352, No. 7, February 17, 2005, p. 649-652).

C. " Individual Rights versus the Public's Health--100 Years after _Jacobson v. Massachusetts_," by W. E. Parmet, R. A. Goodman, and A. Farber (Perspectives, Vol. 352, No. 7, February 17, 2005, p. 652-654).

D. "Effect of Expedited Treatment of Sex Partners on Recurrent or Persistent Gonorrhea or Chlamydial Infection," by Matthew R. Golden, William L.H. Whittington, H. Hunter Handsfield, James P. Hughes,Walter E. Stamm, Matthew Hogben, Agnes Clark, Cheryl Malinski, Jennifer R.L. Helmers, Katherine K. Thomas, and King K. Holmes (Vol. 352, No. 7, February 17, 2005, p. 676-685).

E. "Toward Better Control of Sexually Transmitted Diseases," by Emily J. Erbelding and Jonathan M. Zenilman (Editorial, Vol. 352, No. 7, February 17, 2005, p. 720-721).

_Journal of the American Medical Association_ Book Review Extracts:

A. _Rationalizing Epidemics: Meanings and Uses of American Indian Mortality Since 1600_, by David S. Jones. reviewed by Everett R. Rhoades (Vol. 293, No. 7, Feb. 16, 2005, p. 872-873).

B. _Praeger Handbook of Black American Health: Policies and Issues Behind Disparities in Health, vols 1 & 2_, edited by Ivor Lensworth Livingston, reviewed by Linnea Capps (Vol. 293, No. 7, Feb. 16, 2005, p. 874).

_Lancet_ Editorial, Article Abstract: Note _Lancet_ requires free registration before providing content.

A. "South Africa needs to face the truth about HIV mortality," (Editorial, Vol. 365, No. 9459, Feb. 12, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, p. 546). Note: This editorial is freely available to the public



B. "Outpatient antibiotic use in Europe and association with resistance: a cross-national database study," by Herman Goossens, Matus Ferech, Robert Vander Stichele, and Monique Elseviers (Vol. 365, NO. 9459, Feb. 12, 2005, p. 579-587).

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 5, No. 8, Feb. 21, 2005). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

NLS Bibliography Updates: Note: These citations, along with all of the NLS bibliography, can be found at:

Note: Where available, direct links to full text have been provided. These references represent updated citations from Feb. 14,- Feb. 18, 2005.

For more information on any of these citations (selected abstracts are available) go to the above listed address and click on "Title List". Click on the first item, which while give the syntax of the citation URLs:[0]=320

Then change the number after the equal sign (320 in this case) to the number listed as the "ID Number" in the citations below. You will be taken to the full citation listing.

What Do Children Need to Flourish? Conceptualizing and Measuring Indicators of Positive Development
New York, NY: Springer Publishing Company, January 2005
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
ID Number: 4877
Publisher: Springer Publishing Company

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University of Wisconsin Center for Demography and Ecology: "County-Specific Net Migration by Five-Year Age Groups, Hispanic Origin, Race and Sex 1990-2000," by Paul R. Voss, Scott McNiven, Roger B. Hammer, Kenneth M. Johnson, and Glenn V. Fuguitt (WP 2004-24, September 2004, .pdf format, 53p.).

California Center for Population Research:

A. "Social Class and the Spirit of Capitalism," by Matthias Doepke and Fabrizio Zilibotti (Working Paper CCPR-002-05, September 2004, .pdf format, 18p.).


The British Industrial Revolution was a time of major socio-economic transformations. We review a number of recent economic theories which analyze the transition from a preindustrial world characterized by high fertility, stationary standards of living, and rigid social hierarchies to modern capitalism. One of the key social transformations that accompanied the Industrial Revolution was the economic decline of the aristocracy. Standard theories of wealth inequality cannot explain why the aristocrats, in spite of their superior wealth and education, failed to be the main protagonists and beneficiaries of industrialization. We discuss recent research based on a model of endogenous preferences that is consistent with the demise of aristocracy.

B. "Trends in Educational Assortative Marriage From 1940 to 2003," by Christine R. Schwartz and Robert D. Mare (Working Paper CCPR-003-05, February 2005, .pdf format, 48p.).


This paper reports trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003 in the U.S. Analyses of Census and Current Population Survey data show that educational homogamy increased over most of this period, although there is some evidence of stabilization in the 1990s. From 1940 to the early-1970s, these increases were generated by decreasing intermarriage among groups of relatively well educated persons. Beginning in the early-1970s, the odds of intermarriage among the highly educated stabilized while the odds that high school dropouts marry up dropped substantially. These trends are similar for a broad cross-section of married couples and for newlyweds.

National Bureau of Economic Research:

A. "How Does Job-Protected Maternity Leave Affect Mothers' Employment and Infant Health?" by Michael Baker and Kevin Milligan (w11135, February 2005, .pdf format, 57p.).


Maternity leaves can affect mothers' and infants' welfare if they first affect the amount of time working women stay at home post birth. We provide new evidence of the labor supply effects of these leaves from an analysis of the introduction and expansion of job-protected maternity leave in Canada. The substantial variation in leave entitlements across mothers by time and space is likely exogenous to their unobserved characteristics. This is important because unobserved heterogeneity correlated with leave entitlement potentially biases many previous studies of this topic. We find that modest mandates of 17-18 weeks do not increase the time mothers spend at home. The physical demands of birth and private arrangements appear to render short mandates redundant. These mandates do, however, decrease the proportion of women quitting their jobs, increase leave taking, and increase the proportion returning to their pre-birth employers. In contrast, we find that expansions of job-protected leaves to lengths up to 70 weeks do increase the time spent at home (as well as leave-taking and job continuity). We also examine whether this increase in time at home affects infant health, finding no evidence of an effect on the incidence of low birth weight or infant mortality.

B. "Are Alcohol Excise Taxes Good For Us? Short and Long-Term Effects on Mortality Rates," by Philip J. Cook, Jan Ostermann, and Frank A. Sloan (w11138, February 2005, .pdf format, 22p.).


Regression results from a 30-year panel of the state-level data indicate that changes in alcohol-excise taxes cause a reduction in drinking and lower all-cause mortality in the short run. But those results do not fully capture the long-term mortality effects of a permanent change in drinking levels. In particular, since moderate drinking has a protective effect against heart disease in middle age, it is possible that a reduction in per capita drinking will result in some people drinking "too little" and dying sooner than they otherwise would. To explore that possibility, we simulate the effect of a one percent reduction in drinking on all-cause mortality for the age group 35-69, using several alternative assumptions about how the reduction is distributed across this population. We find that the long-term mortality effect of a one percent reduction in drinking is essentially nil.

C. "Does Educational Tracking Affect Performance and Inequality? Differences-in-Differences Evidence across Countries," by Eric A. Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann (w11124, February 2005, .pdf format, 31p.).


Even though some countries track students into differing-ability schools by age 10, others keep their entire secondary-school system comprehensive. To estimate the effects of such institutional differences in the face of country heterogeneity, we employ an international differences-in-differences approach. We identify tracking effects by comparing differences in outcome between primary and secondary school across tracked and non-tracked systems. Six international student assessments provide eight pairs of achievement contrasts for between 18 and 26 cross-country comparisons. The results suggest that early tracking increases educational inequality. While less clear, there is also a tendency for early tracking to reduce mean performance. Therefore, there does not appear to be any equity-efficiency trade-off.

John F. Kennedy School of Government: "Listening to Parents: Overcoming Barriers to the Adoption of Children from Foster Care," by Julie Wilson, Jeffrey Katz and Robert Geen (Working Paper RWP05-005, February 2005, .pdf format, 105p.).


The Adoption and Safe Families Act of 1997 (ASFA) codified the right of children in foster care to achieve a safe and permanent home. Since its passage, there has been a 79 percent increase in the number of children adopted from foster care. Surprisingly, the vast majority of post-ASFA adoptions were by foster parents or relatives of the children in care. Why so few children are adopted by general applicants is an important question, particularly for the 131,000 waiting for permanent homes. We examined this question using federal data (AFCARS), a state survey, and case record reviews and interviews with parents and agency staff in three sites. We found a steep attrition rate as prospective families go from initial call to adoption, and identified two particularly crucial points in the process. The first is the prospective parents' initial call to an agency. This information call can be an intensely emotional experience for the prospective adoptive parent, but agencies, faced with the challenge of balancing recruitment with screening, do not handle it as well as they might. The second is the placement process. In part his is a result of the inherent conflict between parents looking for the "right child" to complete their family and agencies looking for the "right home" for each child. But we also found great confusion about how the placement decision is made and what role the prospective adoptive parents should play in it. Among our recommendations are an early focus on recruitment rather than screening; documentation of the adoption process and qualifications for adopting; and, a separation of screening from training wherever possible. We also recommend a changing the way initial calls are handled and development of a buddy system paring prospective adoptive parents with experienced adoptive parents, and establishment of a process for soliciting, and incorporating feedback from prospective parents. If we want to find homes for waiting children, it is absolutely critical that child welfare agencies develop ways of listening to prospective parents throughout the adoption process and responding to their needs and concerns.

PDF icon links to full text.

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]:

A. "Marriage and the City," by Pieter Gautier, Michael Svarer and Coen Teulings (Discussion Paper 1491, February 2005, .pdf format, 44p.).


Do people move to cities because of marriage market considerations? In cities singles can meet more potential partners than in rural areas. Singles are therefore prepared to pay a premium in terms of higher housing prices. Once married, the marriage market benefits disappear while the housing premium remains. We extend the model of Burdett and Coles (1997) with a distinction between efficient (cities) and less efficient (non-cities) search markets. One implication of the model is that singles are more likely to move from rural areas to cities while married couples are more likely to make the reverse movement. A second prediction of the model is that attractive singles benefit most from a dense market (i.e. from being choosy). Those predictions are tested with a unique Danish dataset.

B. "The Impact of Parental Income and Education on the Schooling of Their Children," by Arnaud Chevalier, Colm Harmon, Vincent O'Sullivan, Ian Walker (Discussion Paper 1496, February 2005, .pdf format, p.)


This paper addresses the intergeneration transmission of education and investigates the extent to which early school leaving (at age 16) may be due to variations in permanent income, parental education levels, and shocks to income at this age. Least squares estimation reveals conventional results - stronger effects of maternal education than paternal, and stronger effects on sons than daughters. We find that the education effects remain significant even when household income is included. Moreover, decomposing the income when the child is 16 between a permanent component and shocks to income at age 16 only the latter is significant. It would appear that education is an important input even when we control for permanent income but that credit constraints at age 16 are also influential. However, when we use instrumental variable methods to simultaneously account for the endogeneity of parental education and paternal income, we find that the strong effects of parental education become insignificant and permanent income matters much more, while the effects of shocks to household income at 16 remain important. A similar pattern of results are reflected in the main measure of scholastic achievement at age 16. These findings have important implications for the design of policies aimed at encouraging pupils to remain in school longer.

Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) [University of Essex, Colchester, UK]: "Marriage and Wages," by Elena Bardasi and Mark Taylor (Working Paper 2005-1, February 2005, .pdf format, 23p.).


This work investigates the commonly observed relationship between marriage and wages among men in Britain using panel data covering the 1990s. We explicitly test several hypotheses developed in the literature to explain this relationship, including the household division of labour and specialisation, differential rates of human capital formation, employer favouritism, and self-selection. After accounting for individual-specific time-invariant effects, and a wide range of individual, household, job and employer related characteristics, we find a small but statistically significant premium remains that can be attributed to productivity differences. Our estimates provide evidence for the existence of a large selection effect into marriage based on both observable and unobservable characteristics that are positively correlated with wages (consistent with employers using marriage as a positive signal), and also evidence in support of the specialisation hypothesis.

University of Leicester [UK] Economics Department: "What Will I Be When I Grow Up? An Analysis of Childhood Expectations and Career Outcomes," by Sarah Brown, John Sessions and Karl Taylor (Discussion Paper 05/2, November 2004, .pdf format, 36p.).


In this paper we utilise the British National Child Development Study to explore the determinants of children's career expectations formed at the age of sixteen. We analyse how such career expectations impact upon human capital accumulation at the same age. We also analyse the extent of any divergence between childhood career expectations and the actual career outcomes experienced by the individuals at three distinct ages in adulthood (23, 33 and 42) as well as the impact of any such divergence on early- and mid-career wage growth. Our findings suggest that career expectations are an important determinant of human capital accumulation, which in turn is a key determinant of occupational status

Economic and Social Research Institute (IRES), Economics Department, Universite Catholique de Louvain [Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium]: "The Role of Components of Demographic Change in Economic Development: Whither the Trend?" by Tapas K. Mishra (Discussion Paper 2004-23, September 2004, .pdf format, 30p.).


In this paper, we investigate the role of the components of demographic change on economic development. Population growth has both positive and negative effects on income growth. Kelley and Schmidt (1995) states that high birth rates are costly in terms of growth but this effect can be offset by a positive impact of mortality reductions. We study how the weight of each effect has changed over time considering a panel of countries over the last four decades. We find that there is little gain to expect from further reductions in mortality in developing countries, and that the effect of birth rates has become positive in developed countries. In contrast, to the earlier study, where growth enhancing effect of population density is felt consistently for all decades, we find that the effect is limited only to the sixties.

"pdf" at top right side of page links to full text.

Monash [Australia] University Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics:

A. "Robust Forecasting of Mortality and Fertility Rates: a Functional Data Approach," by Rob J. Hyndman and Shahid Ullah (Working Paper 2/2005, February 2005, .pdf format, 24p.).


We propose a new method for forecasting age-specific mortality and fertility rates observed over time. Our approach allows for smooth functions of age, is robust for outlying years due to wars and epidemics, and provides a modelling framework that is easily adapted to allow for constraints and other information. We combine ideas from functional data analysis, nonparametric smoothing and robust statistics to form a methodology that is widely applicable to any functional time series data, and age-specific mortality and fertility in particular. We show that our model is a generalization of the Lee-Carter model commonly used in mortality and fertility forecasting. The methodology is applied to French mortality data and Australian fertility data, and we show that the forecasts obtained are superior to those from the Lee-Carter method and several of its variants.

"View paper" at top right side of page links to full text.

B. "Forecasting Age-specific Breast Cancer Mortality Using Functional Data Models," by Bircan Erbas, Rob J. Hyndman and Dorota M. Gertig (Working Paper 3/2005, February 2005, .pdf format, 22p.).


Accurate estimates of future age-specific incidence and mortality are critical for allocation of resources to breast cancer control programs and evaluation of screening programs. The purpose of this study is to apply functional data analysis techniques to model age-specific breast cancer mortality time trends, and forecast entire age-specific mortality function using a state-space approach. We use yearly unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates in Australia, from 1921 to 2001 in 5 year age groups (45 to 85+). We use functional data analysis techniques where mortality and incidence are modeled as curves with age as a functional covariate varying by time. Data is smoothed using nonparametric smoothing methods then decomposed (using principal components analysis) to estimate basis functions that represent the functional curve. Period effects from the fitted functions are forecast then multiplied by the basis functions, resulting in a forecast mortality curve with prediction intervals. To forecast, we adopt a state-space approach and an extension of the Pegels modeling framework for selecting among exponential smoothing methods. Overall, breast cancer mortality rates in Australia remained relatively stable from 1960 to the late 1990's but declined over the last few years. A set of K=4 basis functions minimized the mean integrated squared forecasting error (MISFE) and accounts for 99.3% of variation around the mean mortality curve. 20 year forecast suggest a continual decline at a slower rate and stabilize beyond 2010 and by age, forecasts show a decline in all age groups with the greatest decline in older women. We illustrate the utility of a new modelling and forecasting approach to model breast cancer mortality rates using a functional model of age. The methods have the potential to incorporate important covariates such as Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) and interventions to represent mammographic screening. This would be particularly useful for evaluating the impact of screening on mortality and incidence from breast cancer.

"View paper" at top right side of page links to full text.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

Other Journals

AIDS (Vol.19, No. 3, Feb. 18, 2005).

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 161, No. 5, March 1, 2005).

European Journal of Population (Vol. 20, No. 4, 2004).,688,2357;

Health Policy and Planning (Vol. 20, No. 1, January 2005).

Sociological Theory (Vol. 23, No. 1, March 2005).

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National Center for Education Statistics Workshops: "NCES will sponsor 3 and one half day workshops and training seminars on the use of various NCES databases. These seminars are open to advanced graduate students and faculty members from colleges and universities nationwide, and to researchers, education practitioners, and policy analysts from federal, state, and local education and human services agencies and professional associations. There is no fee to attend this seminar if you are accepted to participate. Additionally, NCES will provide training materials as well as computers for hands-on practice. NCES will also pay for transportation, hotel accommodations, and a fixed per diem for meals and incidental expenses during the training seminar."

Scroll to "Upcoming Workshops & Training".

Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science Workshops: The Penn State Population Research Center and the University of California Santa Barbara "have combined their expertise to offer national workshops for Ph.D. students, postdocs, and young faculty in demography and in related fields with research interest in population science. In addition, the program is developing web-based infrastructure for access to learning and research resources by workshop participants and by the broader international community of population scientists." Workshops will be held at Penn State May 29-Jun. 11, 2005 and at UCSB Jun. 19-Jul. 2, 2005. For more information see:

Information on the specific workshops can be found under the "PSU 2005" and "UCSB 2005" links.

More information about CSISS:

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: "Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act of 1970 (Uniform Act or URA): FY 2005 Low Income Limits" (February 2005, .pdf format).

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality MEPS has released tables for 2000-2002 for Household Prescribed Drug Estimates: Top 10 Drugs:

Luxembourg Income Study:

A. LIS has released data for Belgium 2000. For more information see:

LIS data acquisition process:

B. "Standardized education variables for head and spouse" (Feb. 21, 2005). "Please note that the routine recoding the education level into standardized categories, now exists also for the household level file for education of head and spouse. For more information see:

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United Nations Statistics Division: UNSD provides a web page that links to selected national statistics offices. Nations are organized alphabetically by continent.

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706