Current Demographic Research Report #76, March 28, 2005.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau Facts for Feature
Department of Housing and Urban Development Report
Centers for Disease Control Periodical Article
National Center for Health Statistics Report
National Center for Education Statistics Report
Bureau of Justice Statistics Report
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Statistical Brief
Bureau of Labor Statistics New Release
_Lancet_ Article
Urban Institute Policy Bulletin
Kaiser Family Foundation Issue Brief
Monitoring the Future Report
Child Trends
World Health Organization Report
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Report
Info Health Pop. Reporter


University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty
National Bureau of Economic Research
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Population Council
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
Center for Research on Child Well-Being [Princeton University]
Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada [FEDEA]


Other Journals


National Academies of Science


Social Science History Association


National Center for Education Statistics Data Workshops



Census Bureau Facts for Feature: "Older Americans Month Celebrated in May," (CB05-FF.07, March 24, 2005, .pdf and HTML format, 3p.).

Department of Housing and Urban Development Report: "Impact of Moving and Job Changes on Commuting Time," by Frederick J. Eggers and Fouad Moumen (January 2005, .pdf format, 18p.).

Centers for Disease Control Periodical Article: "Achievements in Public Health: Elimination of Rubella and Congenital Rubella Syndrome --- United States, 1969--2004" (_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 54, No. 11, Mar. 25, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, p. 279-282).



National Center for Health Statistics Report:

A. "Early Release of Selected Estimates Based on Data From the January-September 2004 National Health Interview Survey," (National Center for Health Statistics, March 2005, .pdf format, 96p.).

B. "Health Insurance Coverage: Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-September 2004," by Robin A. Cohen, Michael E. Martinez, and Cathy Hao (National Center for Health Statistics, March 2005, .pdf format, 19p.)

C. "National Hospital Discharge Survey: 2002 Annual Summary With Detailed Diagnosis and Procedure Data," (National Center for Health Statistics, Vital and Health Statistics, Series 13, No. 158, March 2005, .pdf format, 199p.).

National Center for Education Statistics Report: "Debt Burden: A Comparison of 1992-93 and 1999-2000 Bachelor's Degree Recipients a Year After Graduating," by Susan P. Choy and Xiaojie Li (NCES 2005170, March 2005, .pdf format, 88p.).


This report uses the 1994 and 2001 Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study (B&B) to compare the borrowing patterns of 1992-93 and 1999-2000 bachelor's degree recipients. It also examines their repayment situations and resulting debt burdens (defined as monthly loan payments as a percentage of monthly salary income) a year after they graduated. Members of the earlier cohort finished their undergraduate borrowing before the changes in the Stafford loan program were implemented, and most members of the later cohort would have done all of their borrowing under the new rules. The major finding of the analysis was that although both the percentage of graduates who had borrowed for their undergraduate education and the average total amount borrowed (adjusting for inflation) increased, the median debt burden (as defined in the previous paragraph) a year after graduating was about the same for both cohorts.

Bureau of Justice Statistics Report:

A. "Punitive Damage Awards in Large Counties, 2001," (NCJ 208445, March 2005, .pdf, ASCII text, and zip format of wk1 file, 9p.).

Presents findings on civil trials concluded in 2001 in the Nation's 75 largest counties that produced a punitive damage award. Information reported in numerical tables includes the types of civil cases receiving punitive damages, punitive damage award amounts, a comparison of punitive damages in bench and jury trials, and types of litigants in trials with punitive damages. In addition, information on plaintiff and defendant post-trial and appellate activity in civil trials with punitive damages is presented. Trends in punitive damage awards in civil jury trials during the 1992 and 2001 study periods are also described. This is an electronic only report.

B. "Implementation and Outcome Evaluation of the Intensive Aftercare Program: Final Report," by Richard G. Wiebush, Dennis Wagner, Betsie McNulty, Yanqing Wang, and Thao Le (NCJ 206177, March 2005, .pdf format, 110p.).


Presents the findings from a 5-year, multisite evaluation of the implementation and outcomes of OJJDP's Intensive Aftercare Program (IAP). The goal of the IAP model is to reduce recidivism among high-risk parolees. The model postulates that effective intervention requires not only intensive supervision and services after institutional release, but also a focus on reintegration during incarceration and a highly structured and gradual transition between institutionalization and aftercare.

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Statistical Brief:

A. "Access to Urgent Medical Care among Adults 18 Years and Older, 2000-2002," by Michelle Roberts and Janet Greenblatt (Statistical Brief #74, March 2005, .pdf format, 8p.).

B. "Characteristics of Persons with High Medical Expenditures in the U.S. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population, 2002," by Leslie J. Conwell and Joel W. Cohen (Statistical Brief #73, March 2005, .pdf format, 6p.).

C. "Premiums in the Individual Health Insurance Market for Policyholders under Age 65, 1996 and 2002," by Didem M. Bernard (Statistical Brief #72, March 2005, .pdf format, 5p.).

Bureau of Labor Statistics New Release: "College Enrollment and Work Activity of 2004 High School Graduates," (USDL 05-487, March 2005, ASCII text and .pdf format, 5p.).

_Lancet_ Article: Note: _Lancet_ requires free registration before providing articles. "WHO estimates of the causes of death in children," by Jennifer Bryce, Cynthia Boschi-Pinto, Kenji Shibuya, Robert E. Black, and the WHO Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (_Lancet_, Vol. 365, No. 9465, March 26, 2005, .pdf and HTML format, p. 1147-1152). Note: _Lancet_ is providing free access to this article.



Urban Institute Policy Bulletin: "Who Graduates in California?" by Christopher B. Swanson (Urban Institute, March 2005, .pdf format, 2p.).

Kaiser Family Foundation Issue Brief: "Policy Challenges and Opportunities in Closing the Racial/Ethnic Divide in Health Care" (March 2005, .pdf format, 11p.).

Monitoring the Future Report: "National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: 2004 Overview of Key Findings," by Lloyd D. Johnston, Patrick M. O'Malley, Jerald G. Bachman, and John E. Schulenberg (March 2005, .pdf format, 66p.).

Child Trends Report, Research Brief:

A. "2005 Fact Sheet on Teen Childbearing Issues," (Publication No. 2, March 2005, .pdf format, 6p.).

B. "Hispanic Teen Birth Rates: A Look Behind the Numbers," (Publication No. 1, March 2005, .pdf format, 8p.).

World Health Organization Report: "Global tuberculosis control-surveillance, planning, financing," (World Health Organization, March 2005, .pdf format, 247p.).

Press Release:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Report: "Trends in International Migration," (March 2005, tables and graphs in .pdf format). Note: The full-text report is not available on-line, and must be ordered from the OECD bookstore.,2340,en_2649_201185_34606364_1_1_1_1,00.html

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 5, No. 13, Mar. 28, 2005). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty: "The Effects of Welfare-to-Work Program Activities on Labor Market Outcomes," by Andrew Dyke, Carolyn J. Heinrich, Peter R. Mueser, and Kenneth R. Troske (Discussion Paper DP 1295-05, March 2005, .pdf format, 47p.).


Studies examining the effectiveness of welfare-to-work programs present findings that are mixed and sometimes at odds, in part due to research design, data, and methodological limitations of the studies. We aim to substantially improve on past approaches to estimate program effectiveness by using administrative data on welfare recipients in Missouri and North Carolina to obtain separate estimates of the effects of participating in sub-programs of each state's welfare-to-work program. Using data on all women who entered welfare between the second quarter of 1997 and fourth quarter of 1999 in these states, we follow recipients for sixteen quarters and model their quarterly earnings as a function of demographic characteristics, prior welfare and work experience, the specific types of welfare-to-work programs in which they participate, and time since participation. We focus primarily on three types of subprograms--assessment, job readiness and job search assistance, and more intensive programs designed to augment human capital skills--and use a variety of methods that allow us to compare how common assumptions influence results. In general, we find that the impacts of program participation are negative in the quarters immediately following participation but improve over time, in most cases turning positive in the second year after participation. The results also show that more intensive training is associated with greater initial earnings losses but also greater earnings gains in the long run.

National Bureau of Economic Research:

A. "Health, Information, and Migration: Geographic Mobility of Union Army Veterans, 1860-1880," by Chulhee Lee (NBER Working Paper No. 11207, March 2005, .pdf format, 47p.).


This paper explores how injuries, sickness, and geographical mobility of Union Army veterans while in service affected their post-service migrations. Wartime wounds and illnesses significantly diminished the geographical mobility of veterans after the war. Geographic moves while carrying out military missions had strong positive effects on their post-service geographic mobility. Geographic moves while in service also influenced the choice of destination among the migrants. The farther into the South a veteran had traveled while in service, the higher the probability that he would migrate to the South. Furthermore, these migrants to the South were more likely to settle in a state they had entered while in service. Increased general knowledge about geographical transfer itself, greater information on distant lands and labor markets, and reduced psychological cost of moving were probably important mechanisms by which prior mobility affected subsequent migration. I discuss some implications of the results for the elements of self-selection in migration, the roles of different types of information in migration decisions, and the overall impact of the Civil War on geographic mobility.

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B. "Asymmetric Crime Cycles," by H. Naci Mocan and Turan G. Bali (NBER Working Paper No. 11210, March 2005, .pdf format, 40p.).


Recent theoretical models based on dynamic human capital formation, or social influence, suggest an inverse relationship between criminal activity and economic opportunity and between criminal activity and deterrence, but predict an asymmetric response of crime. In this paper we use three different data sets and three different empirical methodologies to document this previously-unnoticed regularity. Using nonparametric methods we show that the behavior of property crime is asymmetric over time, where increases are sharper but decreases are gradual. Using aggregate time-series U.S. data as well as data from New York City we demonstrate that property crime reacts more (less) strongly to increases (decreases) in the unemployment rate, to decreases (increases) in per capita real GDP and to decreases (increases) in the police force. The same result is obtained between unemployment and property crime in annual state-level panel data. These results suggest that it may be cost effective to implement mechanisms to prevent crime commission rates from rising in the first place.

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C. "Socioeconomic Differences in the Adoption of New Medical Technologies," by Dana Goldman and James P. Smith (NBER Working Paper No. 11218, March 2005, .pdf format, 12p.).


New medical technologies hold tremendous promise for improving population health, but they also raise concerns about exacerbating already large differences in health by socioeconomic status (SES). If effective treatments are more rapidly adopted by the better educated, SES health disparities may initially expand even though the health of those in all groups eventually improves. Hypertension provides a useful case study. It is an important risk factor for developing cardiovascular disease, the condition is relatively common, and there are large differences in rates of hypertension by education. This paper examines the short and long-term diffusion of two important classes of anti-hypertensives - ACE inhibitors and calcium channel blockers - over the last twenty-five years. Using three prominent medical surveys, we find no evidence that the diffusion of these drugs into medical practice favored one education group relative to another. The findings suggest that - at least for hypertension - SES differences in the adoption of new medical technologies are not an important reason for the SES health gradient.

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Bureau of Labor Statistics:

A. "Developing a New Poverty Line for the USA: Are There Lessons for India?" by Thesia I. Garner and Kathleen Short (Working Paper 378, March 2005, .pdf format, 32p.).


This paper reviews a procedure that is being followed in the United States of America (USA) to experimentally test and evaluate recommendations made for redefining poverty measurement in that country. The recommendations were made in 1995 by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Panel on poverty measurement. In this paper these recommendations are reviewed and the impact of implementing the recommendations on measures of inequality and poverty are examined. In conclusion, a discussion concerning possible lessons for India is provided.

The recommended poverty measure (based on new measures of thresholds and resources) is examined in terms of its impact on inequality statistics, as well as poverty statistics, and results are compared to similar statistics based on the official measure. The standard Gini index, and three generalized entropy inequality measures are used to examine inequality. For the poverty analysis simple head count ratios, poverty gaps, and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures are computed. Data from the 1991 U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) Interview are used to produce the thresholds, and data from the 1992 through 1997 Current Population Survey (CPS), and in some analyzes, the 1991 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), are used to define resources.

The proposed measure produces a distribution of resources that is, in general, more equal than is the distribution of official income. The poverty analysis reveals that changes in the poverty rates based on the official and the experimental measures are similar over time. However, poverty as measured by the NAS measure is greater than official poverty. The experimental poverty measure yields a poverty population that looks slightly more like the total U.S. population in terms of various demographic and socioeconomic characteristics than does the current official measure. Geographically adjusting the thresholds results in greater equality and lower poverty rates than when non-adjusted thresholds are used.

With regard to India, poverty measurement is likely not to be based on income and expenditures primarily. Alternative measures based on other needs and resources are reviewed. However, regardless of the measure used, systematic evaluations of the measure are necessary and the USA model may be one to consider in this evaluation process.

B. "Economic Well-Being Based on Income, Consumer Expenditures and Personal Assessments of Minimal Needs," by Thesia I. Garner and Kathleen Short (Working Paper 381, March 2005, .pdf format, 49p.).


Responses to minimum income and minimum spending questions are used to produce economic well-being thresholds. Thresholds are estimated using a regression framework. Regression coefficients are based on U.S. Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data and then applied to U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) data. Three different resource measures are compared to the estimated thresholds. The first resource measure is total before-tax money income, and the other two are expenditure based. The first of these two refers to expenditure outlays and the second to outlays adjusted for the value of the service flow of owner-occupied housing (rental equivalence). The income comparison is based on SIPP data while the outlays comparisons are based on CE data. Results using official poverty thresholds are shown for comparison. This is among the earliest work in the U.S. in which expenditure outlays have been used for economic well-being determinations in combination with personal assessments, and the first time rental equivalence has been used in such an exercise. Comparisons of expenditures for various bundles of commodities are compared to the CE derived thresholds to provide insight concerning what might be considered minimum or basic.

Results reveal that CE and SIPP MIQ thresholds are higher than MSQ thresholds, and resulting poverty rates are also higher with the MIQ. CE-based MSQ thresholds are not statistically different from average expenditure outlays for food, apparel, and shelter and utilities for primary residences. When reported rental equivalences for primary residences that are owner occupied are substituted for out-of-pocket shelter expenditures, single elderly are less likely to be as badly off as they would be with a strict outlays approach in defining resources.

Population Council: "Reciprocal effects of health and economic well-being among older adults in Taiwan and Beijing," by Kristine R. Baker, Mary Beth Ofstedal, Zachary Zimmer, Zhe Tang, and Yi-Li Chuang (Working Paper 187, March 2005, .pdf format, p.).


The objectives of this study are threefold: (1) to examine whether socioeconomic status disparities in health are found in non-Western settings; (2) to assess whether socioeconomic status gradients in health endure into older ages; and (3) to evaluate the direction of causality between health and socioeconomic status. Using data from multiple waves of two longitudinal panel studies of older adults: the Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan (1993, 1996, 1999) and the Beijing Multidimensional Longitudinal Study of Aging (1992, 1994, 1997), the paper employs structural equation models to test hypotheses concerning cross-lagged and reciprocal influences between economic well-being and health. Findings provide evidence for reciprocal effects of economic well-being and health among older adults in both Taiwan and Beijing. Those with higher levels of economic well-being have lower levels of functional limitation over time, and those with higher levels of functional limitation have lower levels of economic well-being over time. Consistent with studies based in the United States and Europe, findings from Asia indicate economic differentials in functional health among older adults, highlighting the wider applicability of these associations across settings with very different systems of health care and stratification. Results underscore the importance of considering reciprocal influences in studies of socioeconomic status and health.

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey: "Trends in Children~Rs Antibiotic Use: 1996-2001," by G. Edward Miller and William A. Carroll (Working Paper 05-014, March 2005, .pdf format, 46p.).


In the mid-1990s, concerns about the overuse of antibiotics and the increasing prevalence of antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections in the United States prompted public health and professional organizations to launch national campaigns to promote the appropriate use of antibiotics. This report uses nationally representative data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) to examine antibiotic use by U.S. children for the years 1996-2001. From 1996 to 2001, the proportion of children who used an antibiotic during the year declined from 39.0 percent to 29.0 percent and the average number of antibiotic prescriptions for children declined from 0.9 to 0.5 per child. Use of antibiotics in the treatment of otitis media also declined. The proportion of all children for whom an antibiotic was prescribed to treat otitis media fell from 14.4 percent in 1996 to 11.5 percent in 2001. Trends in antibiotic use for subgroups of children defined by age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, insurance status, health status, and geography are also examined. From 1996-97 to 2000-01, the percentage of children with antibiotic use and the average number of prescriptions declined in each of the population subgroups under consideration.

Center for Research on Child Well-Being [Princeton University]:

A. "Unmarried But Not Absent: Fathers' Involvement With Children After a Nonmarital Birth," by Marcy Carlson, Sara McLanahan, and Jeanne Brooks-Gunn (2005-07-FF, March 2005, .pdf format, 38p.).


We use new data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a birth cohort study in twenty large U.S. cities, to investigate the level and predictors of fathers' involvement with children approximately three years after a nonmarital birth (N=3,009). We examine the frequency of fathers' spending time with their child, their engagement in various father-child activities, and their help toward the mother with household and child-related tasks. We explore differences in fathers' involvement by parents' relationship status at birth, defined as cohabiting (n=1,449), visiting (romantically involved but living apart, n=1,056), and not romantically involved (n=504). We find that three-fourths of unwed fathers have seen their three-year-old child at least once in the previous month, while one quarter of fathers no longer have regular contact with their child. Parents' relationship status at the time of the child's birth is a key predictor of subsequent involvement: fathers in cohabiting unions are much more likely to be involved in their child's life three years later than other unmarried fathers. Parents' relationship quality is also linked to greater father involvement for some outcomes, and domestic violence is strongly associated with lower involvement. A history of incarceration and having children by other partners also deter fathers' involvement. We conclude that both fathers' individual attributes and his relationship with the mother at the time the child is born have important consequences for fathers' subsequent involvement with young children.

B. "The Effect of Child Support Enforcement on Bargaining Power Among Married and Cohabiting Couples," by Angela Fertig, Sara McLanahan, and Irwin Garfinkel (2005-08-FF, March 2005, .pdf format, 30p.).


Child support enforcement policies enjoy widespread support from legislators because most people believe that fathers should support their children, even when they live in separate households. Less often emphasized is the potentially far-reaching impact of these policies on increasing the bargaining power of women. This paper examines the relationship between child support enforcement and bargaining power among married and cohabiting couples. A simple economic bargaining model predicts that living in a state with stricter child support enforcement increases the bargaining power of married mothers, who can more credibly threaten divorce. The effect on cohabiting mothers is less clear because enforcement increases a father's incentive to marry, which potentially increases his bargaining power within a cohabiting union. Using the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, we find evidence that living in a state with stricter child support enforcement increases the bargaining power of married mothers, but reduces the bargaining power of cohabiting mothers. Furthermore, among mothers who were cohabiting at birth, only those who marry the father after the birth are better off in stricter states. In contrast, mothers who remain in cohabiting relationships or who break-up with the father are significantly more likely to be depressed, worried, and experience hardship in stricter enforcement states.

Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada [FEDEA]: "Demographic Uncertainty and Health Care Expenditure in Spain," by Namkee Ahn, Juan Ramón García y José A. Herce (Documento de Trabajo 2005-07, March 2005, .pdf format, 40p.).


Usual projections of health care expenditure combine age-sex profiles of health expenditure and scenarios of population projection. However, it has been shown repeatedly that both age-sex specific health expenditures and the population structures in the future are highly uncertain and most projections turned out wrong. Therefore, the projections based on the traditional approach are often unhelpful in evaluating future health care expenditures. In this project we try to improve upon the existing literature by incorporating uncertainties in population projection and future age-sex specific health expenditure. Combining the stochastic population projection with age-specific health expenditure we obtain probabilistic distributions of health expenditure. The median projection shows that public health expenditure will increase by about 40% during the next 47 years, that is, an average annual increase of 0.74%. There is a 10% chance that the expenditure will increase by more than 66% during the projection period, which corresponds to an annual increase of 1.1%. At the optimistic side the total public health expenditure will grow only by 17% (0.35% annual) with a 10% probability. The main part of the increase in total expenditure is driven by the increase in average per-capita expenditure due to ageing. The average per-capita expenditure increases by 33%, from 980 in 2004 to 1307 euros in 2050. If we assume that real per-capita public health expenditure increases by the same rate as per-capita GDP, the share of the public health expenditure in GDP will increase from 5% today to 6.7% in 2050, solely due to demographic change. One factor that could reduce the expenditure pressure in the future is that with decreasing mortality rate there will be fewer people in their last year of life. This, combined with the fact that a major part of health expenditure is driven by decedents, could reduce future health expenditure. Our estimation suggests that distinguishing hospital costs by survival status could reduce somewhat (by about 8%) total hospital expenditure in 2049

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Social Science Journal (Vol. 42, No. 1, 2005). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue

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Population and Development Review (Vol. 31, No. 1, March 2005).

Work and Occupation (Vol. 32, No. 2, May 2005). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue

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National Academies of Science Colloquia: "Early Cities: New Perspectives on Pre-Industrial Urbanism," organized by Joyce Marcus and Jeremy Sabloff. The event will occur on May 18-20, 2005 (National Academy of Sciences Building, Washington, DC).

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Social Science History Association: "The 2005 Sharlin Memorial Award in Social Science History." Note: Deadline for submissions is Jun. 15, 2005. For more information see:

More information about SSHA:

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National Center for Education Statistics Data Workshops:

A. "Using the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) Database for Research and Policy Discussion," a workshop to be held June 1-3, 2005.

B. "Using the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) Database for Research and Policy Discussion," a workshop to be held June 6-8, 2005.

C. "Using the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) Database for Research and Policy Discussion," a workshop to be held July 11-13, 2005.

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706