Current Demographic Research Report #77, April 4, 2005.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau Facts for Features
Centers for Disease Control Dispatch, Periodical Article
Government Accountability Office Report
National Center for Education Statistics Issue Brief
Bureau of Economic Analysis News Release
Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, News Release, Periodical
Statistics South Africa Census 2001 Report
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Bulletin
_Demographic Research_ Articles
World Health Organization Periodical
World Bank B-Span Event
Rand Corporation Labor and Population Program Monograph
East-West Center Issue Analysis
Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical
MDRC Report
Urban Institute Report
National Center for Policy Analysis Report
Duke University Child Well-Being Index Report
Info Health Pop. Reporter


Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
National Bureau of Economic Research
Center for Research on Child Well-Being [Princeton University]
Institute for Social and Economic Research
Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology


Other Journals


National Center for Education Statistics
Harvard School of Public Health Symposia
Global Health Summit


National Institutes of Health


House Government Reform Committee Hearing Publication


Census Bureau
Luxembourg Income Study


Kaiser Family Foundation Daily Reports



Census Bureau Facts for Features: "Asian/Pacific American Heritage Month May 2005," (March 2005, .pdf and HTML format, 3p.).

Centers for Disease Control _MMWR_ Dispatch, Periodical Article:

A. "Brief Report: Outbreak of Marburg Virus Hemorrhagic Fever --- Angola, October 1, 2004--March 29, 2005" (Centers for Disease Control, _Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_ Dispatch (Vol. 54, Mar. 30, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, p. 1-2).



B. "Tobacco Use, Access, and Exposure to Tobacco in Media Among Middle and High School Students --- United States, 2004," (_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 54, No. 12, Apr. 1, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, p. 297-301).



C. "Estimated Influenza Vaccination Coverage Among Adults and Children---United States, September 1, 2004--January 31, 2005," (_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 54, No. 12, Apr. 1, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, p. 304-307).



Government Accountability Office Report: "Managing Diabetes: Health Plan Coverage of Services and Supplies," (US Government Accountability Office, GAO-05-210, March 2005, .pdf format, 31p.).

Note: This is a temporary addresses. GAO reports are always available at:

National Center for Education Statistics Issue Brief: "Postsecondary Participation Rates by Sex and Race/Ethnicity: 1974-2003," by Lisa Hudson, Sally Aquilino, and Greg Kienzl (NCES 2005028, March 2005, .pdf format, 4p., with a standard error table, .pdf format, 1p.).


This Issue Brief examines participation in postsecondary education among women and men and among different racial/ethnic groups, from 1974 to 2003. Participation rates are defined here as the proportion of 18- to 24-year-olds who are enrolled in or have completed postsecondary education. Over this time period, the participation rates of young women and of young Whites outpaced that of their male and minority counterparts, so that by 2003 young women had a higher participation rate than young men (reversing the pattern in 1974) and the 1974 gaps in participation rates favoring young Whites over Hispanics grew larger. In 2003, the gender gaps in participation were not significantly different across racial/ethnic groups, nor were racial/ethnic gaps different across gender groups. Moreover, the 10-percentage point gender gap in 2003 was smaller than the racial/ethnic gaps between Whites and Blacks (15 percentage points) and between Whites and Hispanics (23 percentage points).

Bureau of Economic Analysis News Release: "State Personal Income 2004" (BEA 05-11, Mar. 28, 2005, HTML and .pdf format, 13p., with tables also available in Microsoft Excel format).

Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, News Release, Periodical:

A. Bureau of Labor Statistics Report: "A Profile of the Working Poor, 2003," (Report No. 983, 2005, .pdf format, 14p.).

B. "Occupational Injuries and Illnesses By Selected Characteristics 2003," (March 30, 2005, HTML, ASCII text, and .pdf format, 30p.).

C. _Occupational Outlook Quarterly_ (Vol. 48, No. 4, Winter 2004-05, .pdf format).

Statistics South Africa Census 2001 Report: "Prevalence of disability in South Africa" (Report No. 03-02-44 (2001), 2005, .pdf format, 64p.).

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Bulletin: "Costs of Diabetes in Australia, 2000-01," (AIHW Bulletin No. 26, April 2005, .pdf format, 15p.).

_Demographic Research_ Articles: Note: _DR_ is a free, expedited, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research" [Rostock, Germany].

A. "Quadratic spline fits by nonlinear least squares," by Carl Schmertmann (Vol. 12, Article 5, March 2005, .pdf format, p. 105-106).


This web program fits a Quadratic Spline model, as described in Schmertmann (2003; Demographic Research Volume 9, Article 5), to any empirical fertility schedule supplied by the user. The fit minimizes the sum of squared differences between the empirical nfx values and the nfx values from the QS model schedule. Output includes parameter estimates, a graphical depiction of the fitted schedule, and several text reports. Users do not need specialized statistical software or a particular operating system to run the program; the only requirement is a web browser.

B. "Toward a Unified Timestamp with explicit precision," by Justus Benzler and Samuel J. Clark (Vol. 12, Article 6, March 2005, .pdf format, p. 107-140).


Demographic and health surveillance (DS) systems monitor and document individual- and group-level processes in well-defined populations over long periods of time. The resulting data are complex and inherently temporal. Established methods of storing and manipulating temporal data are unable to adequately address the challenges posed by these data. Building on existing standards, a temporal framework and notation are presented that are able to faithfully record all of the time-related information (or partial lack thereof) produced by surveillance systems. The Unified Timestamp isolates all of the inherent complexity of temporal data into a single data type and provides the foundation on which a Unified Timestamp class can be built. The Unified Timestamp accommodates both point- and interval-based time measures with arbitrary precision, including temporal sets. Arbitrary granularities and calendars are supported, and the Unified Timestamp is hierarchically organized, allowing it to represent an unlimited array of temporal entities.

World Health Organization Periodical: _Bulletin of the World Health Organization_ (Vol. 83, No. 4, April 2005, .pdf and HTML format)

Note: _BWHOs_ back to 1947 are always available at:

World Bank B-Span Event: "AIDS and the State: The Politics of Government Responses to Epidemics" (February 2005, Windows Media format, running time 1 hour, 21 minutes, 18 seconds). "Why do some states respond more aggressively to AIDS than others? Despite the high stakes and political conflicts associated with AIDS, little is known with regard to this question. Varun Gauri and Evan Lieberman attempt to answer the general question by comparing two countries, Brazil and South Africa, where one might have expected similar state responses, but in which substantially different policy trajectories are observed."

More information aobut B-Span:

Rand Corporation Labor and Population Program Monograph: _The Economics of Investing in Universal Preschool Education in California_, by Lynn A. Karoly and James H. Bigelow (2005, .pdf format, 236p.).


There is increased interest in California and other states in providing universal access to publicly funded preschool education. In considering such a program, policymakers and the public focus on the potential benefits and costs of such a program. This study aims to inform such deliberations by conducting an analysis of the economic returns from investing in high-quality preschool education in the state of California.

Click on "PDF" for full text.

East-West Center [Honolulu Hawaii] Issue Analysis: "Can China Afford to Continue Its One-Child Policy?" by Wang Feng (Analysis from the East-West Center No. 77, March 2005, .pdf format, 12p.).


Twenty-five years after it was launched, China's "One Child" population control policy is credited with cutting population growth to an all time low and contributing to two decades of spectacular economic development. But the costs associated with the policy are also apparent and are rising: a growing proportion of elderly with inadequate government or family support, a disproportionately high number of male births attributable to sex selective abortion, increased female infant and child mortality rates, and the collapse of a credible government birth-reporting system. Today, as China contemplates the future of the policy, many argue that a change that allows couples to have two children will not lead to uncontrollable population growth. Instead, it could help meet the fertility desires of most Chinese couples; avoid a worsening of the demographic and social consequences already evident; and relieve the Chinese government of the immense financial and political costs of enforcing an unpopular policy. But changes will need to come soon if China is to avert even greater negative consequences of the policy.

Allen Guttmacher Institute Periodical: _Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health_ (Vol. 37, No. 1, March 2005, HTML and .pdf format).

MDRC Report: "Promoting Work in Public Housing: The Effectiveness of Jobs-Plus," by Howard S. Bloom, James A. Riccio, and Nandita Verma (MDRC, March 2005, .pdf format, 262p.).

Click on "Full Report" link in left margin.

Urban Institute Report:

A. "Does Parole Work? Analyzing the Impact of Postprison Supervision on Rearrest Outcomes," by Amy L. Solomon, Vera Kachnowski, and Avi Bhati (Urban Institute, March 2005, .pdf format, 20p.).

B. "Many Young Children Spend Long Hours in Child Care," by Jeffrey Capizzano and Regan Main (Snapshots of American Families III No. 22, March 2005, .pdf and HTML format, 2p.).

National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling [NATSEM] Report: "Recent Trends in Income Inequality in Australia," by Ann Harding (Online Conference Paper-CP0505, March 2005, .pdf format, 14p.).

National Center for Policy Analysis Report: "Unemployment Insurance in a Free Society" by William B. Conerly (NCAP Study no. 274, March 2005, .pdf and HTML format, 22p.).

More information about NCPA:

Duke University Child Well-Being Index Report: "The Foundation for Child Development Index of Child Well-Being (CWI), 1975-2003 with Projections for 2004," by Kenneth C. Land (March 2005, .pdf format, 17p.).

More information about CWI Project:

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 5, No. 14, Apr. 4, 2005). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research: "A study on policies and practices in selected countries that encourage childbirth: the case of Sweden," by Gunnar Andersson (MPIDR Working Paper 2005-005, March 2005, .pdf format, 19p.).


Swedish family policies are not directly aimed at encouraging childbirth. Their main goal has rather been to support women's labour-force participation and to promote gender equality. The focus is to strengthen individuals so that they are able to pursue their family and occupational tracks without being too strongly dependent on other individuals. The reconciliation of family and working life of women has been facilitated by (i) individual taxation, which makes it less attractive for couples to pursue gendered segregation of work and care, (ii) an income-replacement based parental-leave system, which gives women incentives to establish themselves in the labour market before considering childbirth, and (iii) subsidized child-care, which allows women to return to work after parental leave. Fertility has fluctuated during recent decades but, as in the other Nordic countries with a similar welfare-state setup, it has stayed well above the European average. The Swedish context clearly is conducive to such "highest-low" fertility. In this study, I show that institutional factors seem to be far more decisive than cultural ones in shaping childbearing behaviour, and demonstrate some specific impacts of family policies on childbearing dynamics.

National Bureau of Economic Research: "Changes in the Labor Supply Behavior of Married Women: 1980-2000," by Francine D. Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn (w11230, March 2005, .pdf format, 65p.).


Using March Current Population Survey (CPS) data, we investigate married women's labor supply behavior from 1980 to 2000. We find that their labor supply function for annual hours shifted sharply to the right in the 1980s, with little shift in the 1990s. In an accounting sense, this is the major reason for the more rapid growth of female labor supply observed in the 1980s, with an additional factor being that husbands' real wages fell slightly in the 1980s but rose in the 1990s. Moreover, a major new development was that, during both decades, there was a dramatic reduction in women's own wage elasticity. And, continuing past trends, women's labor supply also became less responsive to their husbands' wages. Between 1980 and 2000, women's own wage elasticity fell by 50 to 56 percent, while their cross wage elasticity fell by 38 to 47 percent in absolute value. These patterns hold up under virtually all alternative specifications correcting for: selectivity bias in observing wage offers; selection into marriage; income taxes and the earned income tax credit; measurement error in wages and work hours; and omitted variables that affect both wage offers and the propensity to work; as well as when education groups and mothers of small children are analyzed separately.

MDRC: "Stability and Change in Child Care and Employment: Evidence from Three States," by Cynthia Miller (Working Paper No. 20, March 2005, .pdf format, 34p.).

Center for Research on Child Well-Being [Princeton University]:

"Family Structure, Father Involvement and Adolescent Behavioral Outcomes," by Mary Carlson (2005-10, March 2005, .pdf format, 50p.)


Research has shown that living away from one's biological father is associated with a greater risk of adverse child and youth outcomes, yet the role of the father-child relationship in understanding this association has not been directly investigated. This paper uses data on biological fathers' relationships with their adolescent children from two waves of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N=2,733) to assess whether father involvement mediates the relationship between family structure (i.e. father absence) and four measures of adolescent behavior. Differences in father involvement are shown to account for a sizeable fraction of the variance in behavioral outcomes by family structure. Father involvement does not appear to affect boys and girls differently, but involvement is more beneficial when the father lives with the child.

Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) [University of Essex, Colchester UK]: "Differences in Delaying Motherhood across European Countries: empirical evidence from the ECHP, by Cheti Nicoletti (ISER Working Paper no. 2005-04, March 2005, .pdf format, 29p.).


Age at motherhood has increased in most European Countries in the past decades. The main aim of this paper is to assess the impact of women's education and work experience on the timing of first birth across the European Union (EU). According to the literature - based on income maximisation framework (Gustafsson 2001, Hotz et al. 1997) - women with a higher degree of education and a shorter work experience are more likely to delay motherhood or to remain childless. However, recent micro-level studies have shown contradictory empirical evidence. For instance, higher educated women or career women seem to enter motherhood earlier in the Northern European Countries (Kravdal 1994, Hoem 2000, Andersson 2001).Conceivably, these ambiguous findings might reflect substantial cross-country differences that we would like to point out. Therefore, we conduct an analysis to explain how the probability to enter into motherhood differs across 10 European Union countries by using the European Community Household Panel survey (ECHP).On one side, the gap between countries may reflect differences in the observed characteristics of the national women populations, such as differences in the female labour participation and in the human capital investment. On the other side, the gap may be instead due to different fertility propensities across countries. In the empirical application we try to disentangle between these two reasons.

Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology: "Malthus irrelevant?" Thomas Ziesemer (WP 2005-10, 2005, .pdf format, 48p.).


We estimate and make population forecasts with Foley's (2000) model in three different ways. The population forecasts for high, middle and low-income countries are quite good and suggest that the omitted variable bias from its simplicity is small. Estimation of the model as a system shows that indeed Malthusian behaviour - defined as increasing population growth through increasing per capita income - cannot be found for any of the income groups of the World Bank classification nor for Sub-Saharan Africa, and also not for countries with per capita income below $1200 in a panel estimate. For world aggregate data and for the low income countries we find increasing returns to scale, but for the other groups decreasing returns (outweighed by a positive time trend except for Sub-Saharan Africa and the u1200 group). For the panel of countries with income below $1200, per capita income is stagnant for the period 1970-2002 in spite of the positive growth rates of the period 1991-2002. The time trend is as strong as the population growth in connection with decreasing returns to scale. Together with the absence of Malthusian behaviour this seems to suggest a strong role for the population growth problem as seen by David Ricardo.

An Integrated Research Infrastructure in the Socio-Economic Sciences at CEPS/Instead, Luxembourg [IRISS]:"Gender, Cohabitation and Martial Dissolution: Are changes in Irish family composition typical of European countries?" by Mary Catharine Haffernan (Working Paper 2005-003, 2005, .pdf format, 20p.).


In the early 1990s, the Irish Republic experienced a watershed in sexual morality with the introduction of legalisation on divorce, contraceptives, right to information on abortion and the decriminalisation of homosexuality. This was accompanied by decreasing family sizes and an increase in non-martial births and cohabitation. The aim of this paper is to examine Irish family practices since the instigation of this demographic transition in order to determine whether Irish family practices have become typical of European patterns. Using the European Community Household Panel for waves 1 to 7 (1994 to 2000), Irish family compositions are firstly described and compared with four other European countries: Belgium, France, Italy and the Netherlands. Secondly, a life event approach is used to clarify what factors affect marital dissolution for women in these countries such as martial duration, employment, presence of children and age at first marriage. While Irish households had larger family sizes, there were no significant differences for the risk of marital separation for Irish women relative to women in other European countries. Despite Irish demographic changes occurring much later than in other western European countries, by the turn of the 21st century, Irish family composition was similar to the rest of Europe.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

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Journal of Health and Social Behavior (Vol. 45, No. SPI, 2004). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue

Other Journals:

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 161, No. 8, Apr. 15, 2005).

American Journal of Public Health (Vol. 95, No. 4, April 2005). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library and the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of these databases and this issue.

Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science (Vol. 599, No. 1, May 2005).

Gender and Society (Vol. 19, No. 2, April 2005).

Journal of Sociology (Vol. 41, No. 1, March 2005).

Urban Affairs Review (Vol. 40, No. 5, May 2005). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

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National Center for Education Statistics: "Using the NCES Education Finance Databases for Research and Policy Analyses," workshop and training to be held May 16-18, 2005 in Washington, DC. For more information see:


Harvard School of Public Health Symposia: Health Disparities & the Body Politic: Policy, Research, Data, & Government Responsibility. The first symposium has already been held. The next two are: "Investigating Health Disparities: New Agendas for National Health Research Institutes" (Apr. 14, 2005), and ""Making Disparities Count: From Government Statistics Systems to Action" (May 5, 2005), in Boston Massachusetts. For more information see:

Global Health Summit: "Sponsored by the PHS Commissioned Officers Foundation for the Advancement of Public Health in association with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and other collaborating national and international health organizations," this conference is to be held Jun. 5, 2005 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. For more information see:

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National Institutes of Health: "The Annual Matilda White Riley NIH Lecture in the Behavioral and Social Sciences," (US National Institutes of Health, Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research, March 2005). Note: "The Lecture Selection Committee is seeking nominations of an accomplished behavioral and social scientist to deliver the first Matlida White Riley Lecture in the fall of 2005 or winter of 2006. The annual award will honor an individual whose research has contributed to behavioral and social scientific knowledge and/or the application of such knowledge relevant to the mission of the National Institutes of Health."

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House Government Reform Committee Hearing Publication: "Lessons Learned from the 2004 Overseas Census Test," a hearing held Sep. 14, 2004 (House Serial Publication 108-266, ASCII text and .pdf format, 69p.).

Scroll to or "find in page" "108-266" (without the quotes).

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Census Bureau:

A. The Bureau has released summary and detailed tables on educational achievement from the 2004 Current Population Survey (Microsoft Excel, .pdf, and comma separated value [.csv] format. The tables are linked to from a Census Bureau news release: "College Degree Nearly Doubles Annual Earnings, Census Bureau Reports (CB05-38, Mar. 28, 2005).

Links to data are at top right side of the page.

B. The Census Bureau has released data on commuting time to work derived from the 2003 American Community Survey. The data, in the form of state, county, and place ranking tables, as well as extreme commutes (all .pdf format), are linked to from a Census Bureau news release: "Americans Spend More Than 100 Hours Commuting to Work Each Year, Census Bureau Reports" (CB05-AC.02, Mar. 30, 2005).

C. The Census Bureau has release data from the 2003 State and Local Government Employee-Retirement survey. "The State and Local Government Employee-Retirement System survey provides revenues, expenditures, financial assets, and membership information for public employee retirement systems. Data are shown for individual retirement systems as well as at the national, state, and local level. State and local government employee retirement systems are an important component of the Nation`s government sector. Revised data are available from 1993 through 2001." The data is available at:

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR): ICPSR at the University of Michigan has recently released the following datasets, which may be of interest to demography researchers. Note: Some ICPSR studies are available only to ICPSR member institutions. To find out whether your organization is a member, and whether or not it supports ICPSR Direct downloading, see:

Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS): Psychological Experiences Follow-Up Study, 1998 (#2911)

National Hospital Discharge Survey, 2003 (#4220)

Luxembourg Income Study: New data is available for Austria 2000.

More information on LIS data access:

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Kaiser Family Foundation Daily Reports: KFF offers daily email and web reports in the following topics: Health Policy; HIV/AIDS; and Reproductive Health.

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706