Current Demographic Research Report #8, November 25, 2003.

CDERR (Current Demographic Research Reports) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography and Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


Index to this issue:


Census Bureau Census 2000 Brief
Centers for Disease Control Surveillance Reports, Article, Periodical
National Center for Health Statistics Report
General Accounting Office Report
National Center for Education Statistics Report
US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Reports
Canadian Institute for Health Information Report
New Zealand Ministry of Health Report
United Health Foundation/American Public Health Association Compendium
Urban Institute Reports
Population Reference Bureau Reports
Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School Info Health Pop. Reporter


University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty (IRP)
National Bureau of Economic Research


Other Journals


Florida State University
University of Michigan Population Studies Center
Kaiser Family Foundation Fellowship


Census Bureau American Community Survey
USDA Economic Research Service Urban Influence Codes
National Center for Education Statistics Common Core of Data



Census Bureau Census 2000 Brief: "Structural and Occupancy Characteristics of Housing: 2000," by Robert Bennefield and Robert Bonnette (C2KBR-32, November 2003, .pdf format, 16p.). The report is linked to from a Census Bureau news release: "Number of Mobile Homes Nears 9 Million; Those in California and Hawaii Most Crowded, Census Bureau Reports" (CB 03-182, Nov. 20, 2003).

Click on "Structural and Occupancy Characteristics of Housing: 2000" for link to full text.

Centers for Disease Control Surveillance Reports, Article, Periodical:

A. "Addendum: Cases of HIV infection and AIDS in the United States, 2002," (HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report, Vol.14, November 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 8p.). Note: This is an addendum to "Cases of HIV infection and AIDS in the United States, 2002" (HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report, Vol.14--, discussed in CDERR #5, Nov. 3, 2003:


B. "Hepatitis A Outbreak Associated with Green Onions at a Restaurant --- Monaca, Pennsylvania, 2003"(_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_ Dispatch, Vol. 52, Nov. 21, 2003, .pdf format, 3p.).

C. "Primary and Secondary Syphilis --- United States, 2002" (_Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report_, Vol. 52, No. 46, Nov. 21, 2003, HTML and .pdf format, p. 1117-1120).



D. _Emerging Infectious Diseases_ (Vol. 9, No. 12, December 2003, HTML and .pdf format).

Note: This is a temporary address. When the next _EID_ is released, this one, along with all others, will be available at:

National Center for Health Statistics Report: "Summary Measures of Population Health: Report of Findings on Methodologic and Data Issues" (DHHS Publication PHS 2004-1258, 2003, .pdf format, 66p.).

General Accounting Office Report: "Women's Earnings: Work Patterns Partially Explain Differences Between Men's and Women's Earnings" (GAO-04-35, October 2003, .pdf format, 75p.).

Note: This is a temporary address. GAO reports are always available at:

National Center for Education Statistics Report: "Projections of Education Statistics to 2013," by Debra E. Gerald and William J. Hussar (NCES 2004013, October 2003, .pdf format, 148p.).


This publication provides projections for key education statistics. It includes statistics on enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures in elementary and secondary schools, and enrollment, earned degrees conferred, and current-fund expenditures of degree-granting institutions. For the Nation, the tables, figures, and text contain data on enrollment, teachers, graduates, and expenditures for the past 14 years and projections to the year 2013. For the 50 States and the District of Columbia, the tables, figures, and text contain data on projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2013. In addition, the report includes a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop national and state-level projections.

US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Reports:

A. "Using One-Stops To Promote Access to Work Supports--Lessons from Virginia's Coordinated Economic Relief Centers: Final Report," by Diane Paulsell and Melissa Ford (ERS Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Program E-FAN 03-010, November 2003, .pdf format, 121p.).


Policymakers and program administrators have become increasingly concerned about declines in participation in the Food Stamp Program (FSP) and other work supports. As a result, interest has grown in identifying promising strategies for improving low-income families' access to these programs and benefits. In early 2002, the Commonwealth of Virginia implemented a new initiative: To provide the services of many agencies at one-stop career centers, called Coordinated Economic Relief Centers (CERCs). This report describes the results of a study on how the CERCs were implemented and their potential for increasing low-income families' access to the FSP and other work supports, and provides operational lessons for other States and communities seeking to implement a similar one-stop approach to service delivery. The results indicate that the CERCs helped some customers get information about where to find services and made obtaining services more convenient. However, resource constraints hampered the CERCs' efforts to operate as envisioned, the level of referrals to food assistance programs was low, and expectations in some communities exceeded what the CERCs could realistically accomplish.

Scroll to the bottom of the abstract, where the report is available in its entirety, or chapter by chapter for ease of download.

B. "The Relationship of Earnings and Income to Food Stamp Participation: A Longitudinal Analysis," by Mary Farrell, Michael Fishman, Matthew Langley, and David Stapleton (ERS Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Program E-FAN 03-011, November 2003, .pdf format, 79p.).


Monthly income and earnings of households that are eligible to participate in the Food Stamp Program (FSP), but that do not participate, vary substantially more than income and earnings of participant households. In particular, many nonparticipant households have had a short-term drop in income. Other nonparticipants, however, have had long-term low income and are often very disadvantaged. Although nonparticipation by such households might partly reflect underreporting of participation or income, many households may not participate because the same conditions that limit their incomes, such as low literacy levels or physical or mental disability, also limit their ability to participate in the FSP. Many poor nonparticipants are receiving other benefits, such as Supplemental Security Income or Medicaid, suggesting an avenue by which agencies can reach eligible nonparticipants. This study considers the role that the dynamics of household income plays in determining FSP participation. The two main objectives of the analysis are to (1) determine the extent to which nonparticipation can reasonably be attributed to temporary low income, and (2) assess why some households that appear to have long-term low income do not participate.

Scroll to the bottom of the abstract, where the report is available in its entirety, or chapter by chapter for ease of download.

Canadian Institute for Health Information/Institut Canadien d'Information Sur la Sante (CIHI) Report: "Women's Health Surveillance Report: A Multidimensional Look at the Health of Canadian Women" (2003, .pdf format, 85p.). "The Women's Health Surveillance Report provides information and descriptive statistics on determinants of health, health status, and health outcomes for Canadian women. To the extent possible, each chapter presents new, gender-relevant information on a health condition or issue identified as important to women's health during national expert and stakeholder consultations in 1999."

New Zealand Ministry of Health Report: "Decades of Disparity: Ethnic mortality trends in New Zealand 1980-1999" (Public Health Intelligence Occasional Bulletin Number 16, July 2003, .pdf format, 120p.).

Abstract Excerpt:

The report provides adjusted ethnic mortality rates by gender, age group and major causes of death for this twenty year period. It also provides estimates of ethnic life expectancies, and examines the contribution of different age and cause groups to the disparities in life expectancy over this period.

Click on the PDF icon at the bottom of the page for full text.

United Health Foundation/American Public Health Association Compendium:"America's Health: State Health Rankings - 2003 Edition" (November 2003).

Urban Institute Reports:

A. "Kinship Foster Care: Custody, Hardships, and Services," by Jennifer Ehrle, Rob Geen, and Regan Main (Snapshots of America's Families III No. 14, November 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 2p.).

B. "Are Current Budget Deficits More Worrisome Than Those of the 1980s?" by Rudolph G. Penner (November 2003, .pdf format, 8p.).

C. "HSAs Won't Cure Medicare's Ills, by Leonard E. Burman, and Linda J. Blumberg (November 2003, .pdf format, 2p,).

Population Reference Bureau Reports:

A. "Mozambique Struggles to Shake Off Effects of Civil Strife," by Yvette Collymore (November 2003).

B. "Reproductive Health Programs Need to Involve Men: Margaret E. Greene of George Washington University's Center for Global Health Looks at Male Involvement" (November 2003).

C. "Empowering Women, Developing Society: Female Education in the Middle East and North Africa," by Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi and Valentine M. Moghadam (November 2003, HTML and .pdf format, 8p.).,_Developing_Society__Female_Education_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa.htm

D. "Is America Settling Down?" by Allison Tarmann (November 2003).

E. "Partisan Politics in the 2000 U.S. Census" by Kenneth Prewitt (November 2003).

F. "What's a Household? What's a Family?" by Joseph A. McFalls Jr. (November 2003).

G. PRB has released a series of reports pertaining to HIV in India (all .pdf format). Reports for the country at large, Andra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Manipur, Nagaland, and Tamil Nadu can be found at:

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health's Center for Communication Programs Compendium: Info Health Pop. Reporter (Vol. 3, No. 47, Nov. 24, 2003). "The Johns Hopkins University Population Information Program delivers the reproductive health and family planning news you need. Each week our research staff prepares an electronic magazine loaded with links to key news stories, reports, and related developments around the globe."

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University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty (IRP): "Does Household Food Security Affect Cognitive and Social Development of Kindergartners?" by Ame Stormer and Gail G. Harrison (Discussion Paper DP 1276-03, November 2003, .pdf format, 46p.).


The development in the last decade of methodology for measuring and scaling household food insecurity and hunger in U.S. populations makes possible systematic examination of the ways in which hunger and food insecurity affect individuals and families. The impact on children has always been of primary concern for policy, advocacy, and science because of the vulnerability of children to long-term developmental sequelae. There is an emerging and rapidly growing literature demonstrating deletrious links between inadequate food and a variety of developmental outcomes for children, including poorer health status, school absenteeism, and emotional and behavioral dysfunction. The research presented here explores the relationship of household food insecurity to children's well-being in terms of cognitive and social development at kindergarten entry, utilizing a large and representative sample of children in the United States. The timing of this evaluation, in the fall of the child's first school experience, allows a snapshot of a child's development throughout his/her preschool years relatively independent of the major influence that the school experience will have subsequently. The data are from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study of Kindergartners (ECLS-K), collected in 1998-99 by the National Center for Education Statistics, and comprise 20,929 children attending 1,000 private and public schools. Our results indicate that measures of reading, math, and general knowledge competence were not impacted by household food insecurity independent of other influences, but child emotional and functioning were negatively associated with household food insecurity even when many other relevant variables were controlled for. We also investigated the relationship of household food insecurity to children's attained growth and found no independent relationship of household food insecurity to height for age or weight for height.

National Bureau of Economic Research: "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - The Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," by Hans Fehr and Sabine Jokisch (w10096, November 2003, .pdf format, 40p.).


The developed world stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years the number of elderly in the U.S., the EU, and Japan will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will rise by less than 10 percent. The fiscal implications of these two demographic trends are alarming. Paying promised benefits will, it appears, require a doubling or more of payroll tax rates. This paper asks if there is a silver lining in this dark cloud hanging over the developed world. Specifically, can the developed economies hope to be bailed out by either macroeconomic feedback effects of by increased migration? To address these questions, this paper develops and simulates a dynamic, intergeneration, and interregional demographic life-cycle model. The model has three regions -- the U.S., the EU, and Japan which exchange goods and capital. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension, life span uncertainty, bequests arising from incomplete annuitization, and intra-cohort heterogeneity. Other things equal, one would expect the aging of the developed economies to increase capital per worker as the number of suppliers of capital (the old) rises relative to the number of suppliers of labor (the young). But given the need to pay the elderly their benefits, other things are far from equal. According to our simulations, the tax hikes needed to finance benefits along the demographic transition path generate a major capital shortage that lowers real wages by 19 percent and raises real interest rates by over 400 basis points. Hence, far from mitigating the developed world's fiscal problems, macroeconomic feedback effects make matters significantly worse. The simulations also show that increased immigration does very little to mitigate the fiscal stresses facing the developed world. On the other hand, there are policies that can materially improve the developed world's long-term prospects. The one examined here is closing down, at the margin, existing government pension systems and using consumption taxes to pay off those program's accrued liabilities. This policy could be coupled with the establishment of a fully funded mandatory individual saving system. According to our simulations, this policy would impose modest welfare losses on current generations, but generate enormous welfare gains for future generations. Future Europeans and Japanese benefit the most. Their net wages almost triple, and their welfare levels double compared with the no-reform.

Click on "PDF" or submit your email address at the bottom of the abstract for full text.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

INGENTA Tables of Contents: INGENTA provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

B. click on "browse by publication"
C. Click the "fax/ariel" radio button, type the Journal Name in the "by words in the title" search box and click "search".
D. View the table of contents for the issue noted.

AIDS (Vol. 17, No. 16, 2003).

Social Science Quarterly (Vol. 84, No. 3, 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Social Work (Vol. 48, No. 4, 2003).

Sociological Theory (Vol. 21, No. 3, 2003).

Other Journals:

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 158, No. 11, Dec. 1, 2003).

American Journal of Sociology (Vol. 109, No. 1, July 2003). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

European Journal of Population (Vol. 19, No. 4, 2003).

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Florida State University: Department of Economics--Economic Demographer. For more information see:

University of Michigan Population Studies Center: "The Population Studies Center (PSC) of the Institute for Social Research (ISR) at the University of Michigan invites applications for a research position as an assistant research scientist, associate senior research scientist, or senior research scientist. The position will be either a tenure or tenure track position in PSC, with rank dependent on qualifications and experience." For more information see:

Kaiser Family Foundation Fellowship: "Barbara Jordan Health Policy Scholars Program". The [Barbara Jordan Health Policy Scholars] Program continues Barbara Jordan's commitment by annually providing college students of color the opportunity to work in a congressional office with major health policy responsibilities. The Scholars gain exposure to health policy issues and firsthand understanding of how the federal government works. Seminars and site visits augment their work experiences. For more information, including application information, see:

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Census Bureau: The Census Bureau's American Community Survey has released more than 700 additional tables to its September 2003 release of ACS 2002 data. Data can be extracted from the Bureau's American Factfinder website at:

In addition, Public Use Microdata from the 2002 ACS are available at:

For more information on ACS, click on "More" under the Factfinder web address above.

US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service: "Urban Influence Codes, 2003" (November 2003, Microsoft Excel format). "The 2003 urban influence codes form a classification scheme that distinguishes metropolitan counties by size and nonmetropolitan counties by size of the largest city or town and proximity to metro and micro areas. The standard Office of Management and Budget (OMB) metro and nonmetro categories have been subdivided into two metro and 10 nonmetro categories, resulting in a 12-part county codification. This scheme was originally developed in 1993. This scheme allows researchers to break county data into finer residential groups, beyond metro and nonmetro, particularly for the analysis of trends in nonmetro areas that are related to population density and metro influence." Data can be extracted to the screen for individual states or downloaded for for all counties in the US in an Excel spreadsheet.

National Center for Education Statistics: "Local Education Agency (School District) and School Universe Survey Longitudinal Data Files: 1986-1998 (13-year)" (NCES 2003420, September 2003, .zip compressed ASCII and SAS format, with documentation in .pdf format, and record layout in ASCII text format).


CCD [Common Core of Data] files link local school and school districts over time and provide imputed values for data that were not originally reported by states. This file includes enrollment, free/reduced price eligibility data, and high school completers, by race and gender. While the statistical techniques used to track agencies and schools over time and extensively impute missing data produce overall reliability, these longitudinal files are not intended to give official state or national totals for any variable included in the CCD. The regular (not longitudinal) public education agency and school universe files should be used when seeking information about individual education agencies, schools, or a state's officially reported data.

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Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706