Current Social Science Research Report--Economics #5, March 6, 2007.

CSSRR-Economics is a weekly email report produced by the Data and Information Services Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. It seeks to help social science researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


CSSRR-Economics is compiled and edited by Jack Solock and Charlie Fiss.


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Index to this issue:














1. Census Bureau Report: "Annual Capital Expenditures: 2005," (ACE/05, February 2007, .pdf format, 75p.).

2. Bureau of Labor Statistics Periodical: Compensation and Working Conditions Online. The latest article is dated Feb. 27, 2007).

3. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service Reports:

A. "The Changing Face of the U.S. Grain System," by Aziz Elbehri. (Economic Research Report No. (ERR-35), February 2007,.pdf format, 35p.)

B. "Michigan: A State at the Intersection of the Debate Over Full Planting Flexibility," by Suzanne Thornsbury, Lourdes Martinez, David Schweikhardt, and Barry Krissoff. (Contractor and Cooperator Report No. (CCR-29), February 200, .pdf format, 58p.)

C. "Valuing Counter-Cyclical Payments: Implications for Producer Risk Management and Program Administration," by Gerald E. Plato, David W. Skully, and D. Demcey Johnson. (Economic Research Report No. (ERR-39), February 2007, .pdf format, 25p.)

4. National Science Foundation Report: "Research and Development in Industry: 2003" (NSF 07-314, February 2007, .pdf format, 313p., with tables in .pdf and Microsoft Excel format).

Click on any of the links below "Contents" for links to Excel tables).

5. US Government Economic Releases from the National Bureau of Economic Research: Links to releases for Mar. 1- Mar. 6 2007 are available at the site.

6. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri) Periodical: National Economic Trends (March 2007, .pdf format, 27p.).

Note: this is a temporary address. When the next NET is released, this one, along with all others back to 1997, will be available by clicking on "Past Issues" near the top of the page.

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US States:


Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism Report: "Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report (QSER): 1st Quarter 2007" (February 2007, .pdf format, 147p., with Microsoft Excel spreadsheets).

Note: this is a temporary address. When the next QSER is released, this one, along with all others back to 1996, will be available at:


State Data Center Report:

"High-Tech Establishments in Maryland 2004" (February 2007, .pdf and Microsoft Excel format).

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NGOs and Other Countries

European Commission:

Eurostat Periodicals:

A. Statistics in Focus: "Farm structure in Belgium - 2005" (No. 26, March 2007, .pdf format, 7p.).,46587259&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_product_code=KS-SF-07-026

B. Euro-Indicators Newsletter (December 2006 (release date Feb. 22, 2007), .pdf format, 17p.).


International Monetary Fund Country Reports: The latest Country Reports span the time period from Feb. 21-27, 2007 (Nos. 07/83--07/97).



Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística News Release: "GDP accumulated growth of 2.9% in 2006" (Feb. 28, 2007). The news release is in English, and links to the latest quarterly national accounts (commentary in .pdf format in Portuguese, along with .zip compressed Microsoft Word tables).

Click on "Conjuncture Indicator" for link to commentary and tables.



National Bureau of Statistics Communique: "Statistical Communique on the 2006 National Economic and Social Development" (Feb. 28, 2007).



Statistics Finland News Release: "Gross domestic product grew by 5.5 per cent last year" (Mar. 1, 2007).



Statistical Office News Release: "Lowest negotiated hourly wages about 5 euros (6.57 US dollars) in the second half of 2006" (Mar. 2, 2007). The English news release links to a German news release with a topical table.


Hong Kong:

Special Administrative Region Economic Analysis Division Report: "2006 Economic Background and 2007 Prospects" (February 2007, .pdf format, 183p.). The report is linked to from a HK SAR news release: "Gross Domestic Product for the 4th Quarter 2006 and the whole year of 2006" (Feb. 28, 2007).

Click on title at the bottom of the news release, and then click on "Economic reports" for link to full text.



Statistics Indonesia Report: "Production of Paddy, Maize, and Soybeans 2006" (Mar. 1, 2007, .pdf format, 3p.).



Central Statistics Office Reports:

A. "Agricultural Price Indices, December and Year 2006" (February 2007, .pdf format, 8p.).

B. "Service Exports and Imports, 2004 and 2005" (February 2007, .pdf format, 19p.).

C. "Annual Services Inquiry, 2004" (February 2007, .pdf format, 159p.).

D. "County Incomes and Regional GDP, 2004" (February 2007, .pdf format, 28p.).



Central Bureau of Statistics Report: "Dealers and Revenue of Economic Industries According to Value Added Tax, 2004-2005 (February 2007, .pdf format, 100p., with ancillary information in Microsoft Word format, and statistical tables in Microsoft Excel format).



Statistics Bureau Report: "Labor Force Survey: Time Series" (March 2007, Microsoft Excel format). Time series vary by table.



Statistics Netherlands Press Release, Web Magazine Article:

A. "Income support at lowest level for 25 years" (Press release, Feb. 28, 2007).

B. "Provinces plan substantial spending in 2007," by Lia Siebeling (Web Magazine, Feb. 27, 2007).



Statistics Norway Compendium, News Releases:

A. Forestry Statistics: 2005 (February 2007, .pdf format, 63p.).

B. "Employment up in several industries: Manufacturing statistics. Structural data, 2005" (Feb. 27, 2007). The news release links to three topical tables.

C. "3.76 million buildings in Norway: Statistics of existing buildings, 2007" (Feb. 27, 2007). The news release links to five topical tables.



Central Statistical Office News Release: "Foreign trade turnover in total and by countries January - December 2006" (Mar. 2, 2007).



Statistics Singapore Report: "Economic Surveys Series - Health Services 2005" (February 2007, .pdf format, 8p.).

Click on "Key Findings" for link to full text.



Statistical Office News Release: "Gross investments, Slovenia, 2005" (Feb. 28, 2007). The news release links to topical tables in the SI-Stats data extractor.


Sri Lanka:

Department of Census and Statistics News Release: "Official Poverty Line - January 2007" (February 2007, .pdf format, 1p.).



Statistics Sweden News Releases:

A. "Investments in R&D fall as a share of GDP in Sweden" (Mar. 2, 2007).

B. "County council and municipal R&D amounts to Swedish Kroner 3.2 billion (450.3 million US dollars)" (Feb. 28, 2007).

C. "Exports of goods break the trillion mark" (140.72 billion US dollars) (Feb. 26, 2007).



Swiss Federal Statistical Office Report: "SLFS 2006 in brief: Key findings of the Swiss Labour Force Survey" (2007, .pdf format, 16p.).



1. Parliament House of Commons Library Research Paper: "Economic Indicators," edited by Edward Beale (No. 07/23, March 1, 2007, .pdf format, 44p.) "This Research Paper series summarises economic indicators currently available along with comparisons with other countries for selected indicators."

2. National Statistics Office Article: "Regional analysis of public sector employment," by Bryce Millard (in Economic & Labour Market Review, Vol. 1, No. 3, March 2007, .pdf format, p. 33-39).

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Urban Institute Reports: "Have Middle-Income Parents Improved Their Economic Status?" by Robert I. Lerman (February, 2007, in the Opportunity and Ownership Facts series, No 2, .pdf format, 1p.) Link to summary and full text:

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Federal Reserve Banks:

Finance and Economics Discussion Series: "Rounding and the Impact of News: A Simple Test of Market Rationality," by Meredith Beechey and Jonathan H. Wright (February 2007, WP 2007-5, .pdf format, 11p.) Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Texas):

A. "The Impact of Evolving Labor Practices and Demographics on U.S. Inflation and Unemployment," by John V. Duca and Carl M. Campbell III (WP 0702, February 2007, .pdf format, 28p.)


"Since the early 1990s, NAIRU estimates have declined and unemployment duration has risen relative to the unemployment rate. These developments may have arisen from the aging of the workforce or practices reducing job turnover. We assess the internal consistency of these hypotheses using simulation methods and test their external consistency using modified NAIRU models. We find that demographics cannot fully account for changes in the NAIRU, consistent with Staiger, Stock, and Watson (2001) and in contrast to Shimer (1998, 2001). Instead, our results attribute shifts in the NAIRU and duration to a combination of shifts in demographics and job turnover."

B. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?" by Stephen P. A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel (WP 0703 February 2007, .pdf format, 19p.).


For many years, fuel switching between natural gas and residual fuel oil kept natural gas prices closely aligned with those for crude oil. More recently, however, the number of U.S. facilities able to switch between natural gas and residual fuel oil has declined, and over the past five years, U.S. natural gas prices have been on an upward trend with crude oil prices but with considerable independent movement. Natural gas market analysts generally emphasize weather and inventories as drivers of natural gas prices. Using an error-correction model, we show that when these and other additional factors are taken into account, movements in crude oil prices have a prominent role in shaping natural gas prices. Our findings imply a continuum of prices at which natural gas and petroleum products are substitutes.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

A "Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," by Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, and Kevin J. Stiroh (Staff Report 277, February 2007, .pdf format, 25p.) Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

B. "Credit Derivatives and Bank Credit Supply," by Beverly Hirtle (Staff Report 276, February 2007, .pdf format, 27p.) Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis [Missouri]:

A. "Social Learning and Monetary Policy Rules," by Jasmina Arifovic, James B. Bullard, and Olena Kostyshyna (March 2007, No. 2007-007A, .pdf format, 23p.) Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

B. "Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: Structural Estimates for the United States and the Euro Area," by Javier Andrés, J. David López-Salido, Edward Nelson (Feb. 27, 2007, No.2007-005A, .pdf format, 26p.) Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

C. "A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation," by Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Howard J. Wall (February 2007, No. 2007-003B, .pdf format, 22p.) Links to an abstract and full text are available at:


Rand Corporation: "Employment Protection Laws, Barriers to Entrepreneurship, Financial Markets and Firm Size," by Raquel Fonseca and Natalia Utrero (WR 454, November 2006, .pdf format, 36p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:


University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Economics:

A. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," by Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie D. Chinn, and Eiji Fujii (WP 2007-01, January 2007, .pdf format, 24 p.)


"We evaluate wether the Renminbi (RMB) is misaligned, relying upon conventional statistical methods of inference. A framework built around the relationship between relative price and relative output levels is used. We find that, once sampling uncertainty and serial correlation are accounted for, there is little statistical evidence that the RMB is undervalued. The result is robust to various choices of country samples and sample periods, as well as the inclusion of control variable."

B. "Memberships and Inequality," by Steven N. Durlauf (WP 2007-02, February 2007, .pdf format, 34p.)

C. "Model Uncertainty and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment," by Ethan Cohen-Cole, Steven N. Durlauf, Jeffrey Fagan, and Daniel Nagin (WP 2007-03, February 2007, .pdf format, 22p.)


"The reintroduction of capital punishment after the end of the Supreme Court moratorium has permitted researchers to employ state level heterogeneity in the use of capital punishment to study deterrent effects. However, no scholarly consensus exists as to their magnitude. A key reason this has occured is that the use of alternative models across studies produces differing estimates of the deterrent effect. Because differences across models are not well motivated by theory, the deterrence literature is plagued by model uncertainty. We argue that the analysis of deterrent effect should explicitly recognize the presence of model uncertainty in drawing inferences. We describe methods for addressing model uncertainty and apply them to understand the disparate findings between two major studies in the deterrence literature, finding that evidence of deterrent effects appears, while not nonexistent, is weak."


European Central Bank: "International Trade, Technological Shocks and Spillovers in the Labour Market: A Gvar Analysis of the US Manufacturing Sector," by Paul Hiebert and Isabel Vansteenkiste (WP 731, February 2007, .pdf format, 19p.)


"We empirically analyse the response of US manufacturing labour market variables to various shocks, notably to trade openness and technology. The econometric approach involves an application of the recently developed global VAR (GVAR) methodology of Dees, DiMauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2005) to 12 manufacturing industries over the period 1977-2003. This frame-work allows for an assessment of both shocks to weakly exogenous variables and intra-industry spillovers. In this vein, beyond a standard set of labour-market related variables (employment, real compensation, productivity and capital stock) and exogenous factors (a sector-specific measure of trade openness, along with common technology and oil price shocks), specific measures of manufacturing-wide variables are included for each sector. Generalised impulse responses indicate that increased trade openness negatively affects real compensation, has negligible employment effects and leads to higher labour productivity. These impacts, however, are relatively weaker those induced by technology shocks, with the latter positively and significantly affecting both real compensation and employment. There is also evidence of positive spillovers across industries from sector-specific employment and productivity shocks. Impact elasticities suggest strong intra-sectoral linkages for employment and capital stock formation, contrasting with weak linkages for what concerns real compensation and productivity."


Australian Government Treasury: "Asymmetric Investment Returns and the Sustainability of US External Imbalances" by Phil Garton. (Treasury Working Paper 2007-01, February 2007, .pdf and Word Format, 33p.) Links to a summary and full text are available at:


International Monetary Fund: IMF has added two working papers on. The papers are Nos 07/43--07/50.


World Bank Development Programme: WDP has recently released several new working papers. See the list at:

New Papers are: 4155-4165

and click on "More" for the rest.


Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]: IZA has recently released several new working papers.

The new working papers are: 2645-2649


Center for Economic Studies/Ifo Institute for Economic Research (CESifo) [Munich, Bavaria, Germany]: CESifo has recently released several new working papers:

and "Browse Working Paper List" for 2007.

The new papers are numbered 1934-1937.


New Economic Papers (NEP)-ALL. The latest list of New Economic Papers (Feb. 24, 2007) is available at:


AgEcon Search: This week's new working papers from AgEcon Search at the University of Minnesota are available at:

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

Econometrica (Vol. 75, No. 2, March 2007). Note: Full electronic text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Journal of Financial Economics (Vol. 83, No. 3, March 2007).

Rand Journal of Economics (Vol. 38, No. 1, Spring 2007).

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US Census Bureau: "Federal, State, and Local Governments: Public Employment and Payroll Data: 2006" (March 2007). Note: Federal government data is not available at this time.

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