Current Social Science Research Report--Economics #69, June 24, 2008.

CSSRR-Economics is a weekly email report produced by the Data and Information Services Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. It seeks to help social science researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


CSSRR-Economics is compiled and edited by Jack Solock and Charlie Fiss.


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Index to this issue:















1. Bureau of Labor Statistics Report: "Occupational Projections and Training Data: 2008-09 Edition" (June 2008, .pdf and .zip compressed Microsoft Excel format).

2. Department of Housing and Urban Development Periodical: U.S. Housing Market Conditions (1st Quarter 2008, May 2008, .pdf format, 94p.).

3. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Reports:

A. "Food Stamp Program Certification Costs and Errors, 1989-2005: Final Report," by Christopher Logan, Ryan Kling, and William Rhodes (Contractor and Cooperator Report No. CCR-45, June 2008, .pdf format, 118p.).

B. "Oil Crops Yearbook: 2008" (June 2008, .pdf format, 87p.).

4. National Endowment for the Arts Report: "Artists in the Workforce: 1990-2005," (Research Report No. 48, May 2008, .pdf format, 148p.).

5. US Government Economic Releases from the National Bureau of Economic Research: Links to releases for Jun. 17-24, 2008 are available at the site.

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US States:

North Dakota:

State Data Center Periodical: Economic Brief (Vol. 17, No. 6, June 2008, .pdf format, 3p.). The topic of this month's issue is: "Housing Units Authorized for Construction by Building Permits in North Dakota: 2007."

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NGOs and Other Countries:

Eurostat Periodicals:

A. Statistics in Focus. The latest issues (8/58-8/60 .pdf format) are now available at the SIF website:,1136118&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

B. Data in Focus: The latest issues (22/08--25/08 .pdf format) are now available on the DIF website:,62992791&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL


Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Periodical: Financial Market Trends (2008/1, No. 94, .pdf format). Note: only selected articles are available at the site.,3343,en_2649_201185_1962020_1_1_1_1,00.html


International Monetary Fund Country Reports: The latest Country Reports (.pdf format) span the time period from Jun. 18-Jun. 24, 2008 (No. 08/188-08/194).



Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) Press Release: "PAIC 2006 shows increase of construction companies" (Jun. 18, 2008). The press release links to a report on the Annual Survey of Construction Industry (.pdf format, with tables in .zip compressed Microsoft Excel format), in Portuguese.



Statistics Canada/Statistique Canada Reports, Article, Periodical:

A. "Farm Operating Expenses and Depreciation Charges" (Agricultural Economic Statistics, May 2008, .pdf format, 45p.).

B. "Balance Sheet of the Agricultural Sector" (Agricultural Economic Statistics, June 2008, .pdf format, 44p.).

C. "Newspaper Publishers: 2006" (June 2008, .pdf format, 11p.).

D. "Spectator Sports, Event Promoters, Artists and Related Industries: 2006" (June 2008, .pdf format, 5p.).

E. "Have Patterns of Living in Owned Versus Rented Dwellings Changed Since 1985?" by Heather Dryburgh and Michael Wendt (June 2008, HTML and .pdf format, 4p.).

F. Canadian Economic Observer (Vol. 21, No. 6, June 2008, HTML and .pdf format, 73p.).



Statistical Service Report: "Latest Figures: Monthly Production of Cows Milk, Jan 2007 - Mar 2008 and Production Of Milk Products From Cows Milk, Jan 2007 - Dec 2007" (June 2008, Microsoft Excel format).


Czech Republic:

Czech Statistical Office Report: "The Czech Economy Development in Q1 2008" (June 2008, .pdf and Microsoft Word format).



Federal Statistics Office STATmagazin Article: "Renewable energy sources: Development since 1991" (Feb. 29, 2008).,templateId=renderPrint.psml__nnn=true



Central Statistical Office Periodical: Statistical Reflections (Vol. 2, No. 56, June 2008, .pdf format, 1p.). The topic of this issue is: "Labour cost in Hungary, 2006."



Central Statistics Office/An Phriomh-Oifig Staidrimh Reports:

A. Output, Input and Income in Agriculture 2007--Final Estimate" (June 2008, .pdf format, 8p.).

B. "Income of Agricultural Households in Ireland (1994-1995, 1999-2000, 2004-2005)" (June 2008, .pdf format, 94p.).

C. "Statistics of Port Traffic: 2007" (June 2008,.pdf format, 12p.).

D. "Consumer Prices: Bi Annual Average Price Analysis - Dublin and Outside Dublin, May 2008" (June 2008, .pdf format, 19p.).


States of Jersey Report: "Jersey Energy Trends 2007" (June 2008, .pdf format, 19p., with tables in Microsoft Excel format).



Statistics Department Report: "Household Budget: 2007" (June 2008, .pdf format, 105p.).



State Statistical Office News Releases:

A. "Completed construction work and completed dwellings in buildings built by construction business entities: 2007" (Jun. 20, 2008, .pdf format, 6p.). The news release is in Macedonian and English.

B. "Completed construction work and completed dwellings built by private owners: 2007" (Jun. 20, 2008, .pdf format, 6p.). The news release is in Macedonian and English.



National Statistics Office News Release: "Expenditure on R & D in the General Government Sector: 2005-2007" (June 2008, .pdf format, 7p.).



Statistics Norway Report, News Releases:

A. "Use and emissions of hazardous substances in Norway, 2002-2006," by Marte O. Kittilsen and Kathrine Loe Hansen (June 2008, .pdf format, 77p.).

B. "Wage statistics. All employees, 2007" (Jun. 19, 2008). The news release links to four topical tables.

C. "Income statistics for households. Geographic distribution, 2006" (Jun. 20, 2008). The news release links to one topical table.

D. "External trade in services, enterprises operating in ocean transport, 2006" (Jun. 20, 2008). The news release links to two topical tables.

E. "KOSTRA: municipal wastewater, 2007. Wastewater fees 2008" (Jun. 20, 2008).

F. "Household waste, 2007. Preliminary figures" (Jun. 20, 2008). The news release links to four topical tables.

G. "Foreign direct investment in Norway, stock data, 1998-2006" (Jun. 24, 2008). The news release links to three topical tables.

H. "KOSTRA: Municipal water supply 2007. Water fees 2008. Edited figures" (Jun. 24, 2008).



Central Statistical Office Report: "Agriculture in 2007" (June 2008, .pdf and .zip compressed .pdf format, 166p.).



National Institute of Statistics Periodical: International Trade Statistical Bulletin No. 3 (June 2008, .pdf format, 73p.).

Click on the title page icon under the title for link to full text.



Statistical Office News Releases:

A. "Marine fishing, Slovenia, 2007," by Enisa Lojovic-Hadzihasanovic (Jun. 24, 2008).

B. "Purchasing power parities and gross domestic product in purchasing power standards, 2007 - Now-cast," by Zdenka Repotocnik (Jun. 24, 2008).



Federal Statistical Office Report: "Economic accounts for the primary sector: Results and methods" (June 2008, .pdf format, 19p.).



State Statistics Committee Reports:

A. "Output of basic industrial products for 2003-2007" (Jun. 20, 2008).

B. "Transport: 1990-2007" (Jun. 24, 2008).

C. "Communications: 1980-2007" (Jun. 24, 2008).



1. Communities and Local Government Report: "Local Authority Capital Expenditure And Receipts: England - 2007-08 Provisional Outturn and 2008-09 Forecast" (June 2008, .pdf format, 12p., with tables in Microsoft Excel format).

2. Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs Report: "Survey of property transactions in England and Wales" (June 2008, .pdf format, with tables in Microsoft Excel format).

3. Department for Transport Report: "UK Seafarer Statistics: 2007" (June 2008, .pdf format, 3p.).

4. Department for Work and Pensions Research Report: "Employment transitions and the changes in economic circumstances of families with children: Evidence from the Families and Children Study (FACS)," by Matt Barnes, Nick Lyon and Jane Millar (Research Report No 506, June 2008, .pdf format, 94p.).

5. National Statistics Office Periodical, News Release:

A. Financial Statistics, edited by Natu Somabhai Patel (No. 553, June 2008, .pdf format, 287p.).

Click on "Latest Release" for link to full text.

B. "High food prices fuel inflation increase" (Jun. 17, 2008, .pdf format, 3p.).

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri) Periodical: Monetary Trends (July 2008, .pdf format, 20p.).


Urban Institute Reports:

A. "Kids' Share 2008: How Children Fare in the Federal Budget," by Adam Carasso, C. Eugene Steuerle, Gillian Reynolds, Tracy Vericker, Jennifer Ehrle Macomber (June 2008, .pdf format, 36p.).

B. "A Preliminary Analysis of the 2008 Presidential Candidates' Tax Plans" (Tax Policy Center, June 2008, .pdf format, 36p.).

C. "The Distribution of Federal Taxes, 2008-11," by Jeff Rohaly (June 2008, .pdf format, 20p.).

D. "Children's Savings Accounts: Why Design Matters," by Barbara Butrica, Adam Carasso, C. Eugene Steuerle, and Desmond Toohey (Opportunity and Ownership Project Report 4, May 2008, .pdf format, 19p.).

E. "Portraits of the Assets and Liabilities of Low-Income Families," by Adam Carasso and Signe-Mary McKernan (May 2008, .pdf format, 7p.).

F. "Do Welfare and IDA Program Policies Affect Asset Holdings?" by Signe-Mary McKernan, Caroline Ratcliffe, and Yunju Nam" (May 2008, .pdf format, 7p.).

G. "How Households Expect to Cope in a Financial Emergency," by Lynette A. Rawlings and Kerstin Gentsch (March 2008, .pdf format, 1p.).

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Federal Reserve Banks:

Federal Reserve Board: "Subprime Mortgages: What, Where, and to Whom?" by Chris Mayer and Karen Pence (Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-29, June 2008, .pdf format, 43p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston [Massachusetts]:

A. "A New Approach to Raising Social Security’s Earliest Eligibility Age," by Kelly Haverstick, Margarita Sapozhnikov, Robert K. Triest, and Natalia Zhivan (Public Policy Discussion Paper No. 08-4, June 2008, .pdf format, p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

B. "Blood Donations and Incentives: Evidence from a Field Experiment," by Lorenz Goette and Alois Stutzer (Working Paper 08-3, June 2008, .pdf format, 31p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York):

A. "The Welfare Effects of a Liquidity-Saving Mechanism," by Enghin Atalay, Antoine Martin, and James McAndrews (Staff Report No. 331, June 2008, .pdf format, 47p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

B. "Corporate Performance, Board Structure, and Their Determinants in the Banking Industry," by Renée B. Adams and Hamid Mehran (Staff Report No. 330, June 2008, .pdf format, 43p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia [Pennsylvania]: "Quits, Worker Recruitment, and Firm Growth: Theory and Evidence," by R. Jason Faberman and Eva Nagypal (Working Paper No. 08-13, June 2008, .pdf format, 50p.).


The authors use establishment data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) to study the micro-level behavior of worker quits and their relation to recruitment and establishment growth. They find that quits decline with establishment growth, playing the most important role at slowly contracting firms. They also find a robust, positive relationship between an establishment's reported hires and vacancies and the incidence of a quit. This relationship occurs despite the finding that quits decline, and hires and vacancies increase, with establishment growth. The authors characterize these dynamics within a labor-market search model with on-the-job search, a convex cost of creating new positions, and multi-worker establishments. The model distinguishes between recruiting to replace a quitting worker and recruiting for a new position, and relates this distinction to firm performance. Beyond giving rise to a varying quit propensity, the model generates endogenously determined thresholds for firm contraction (through both layoffs and attrition), worker replacement, and firm expansion. The continuum of decision rules derived from these thresholds produces rich firm-level dynamics and quit behavior that are broadly consistent with the empirical evidence of the JOLTS data.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis [Missouri]: "Local Price Variation and Labor Supply Behavior," by Dan Black, Natalia Kolesnikova, and Lowell J. Taylor (Working Paper 2008-16A, June 2008, .pdf format, 18p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco [California]: "Speculative Growth and Overreaction to Technology Shocks," by Kevin J. Lansing (Working Paper 2008-08, June 2008, .pdf format, 35p.).


This paper develops a stochastic endogenous growth model that exhibits "excess volatility" of equity prices because speculative agents overreact to observed technology shocks. When making forecasts about the future, speculative agents behave like rational agents with very low risk aversion. The speculative forecast rule alters the dynamics of the model in a way that tends to confirm the stronger technology response. For moderate levels of risk aversion, the forecast errors observed by the speculative agent are close to white noise, making it difficult for the agent to detect a misspecification of the forecast rule. In model simulations, I show that this type of behavior gives rise to intermittent asset price bubbles that coincide with improvements in technology, investment and consumption booms, and faster trend growth, reminiscent of the U.S. economy during the late 1920s and late 1990s. The model can also generate prolonged periods where the price-dividend ratio remains in the vicinity of the fundamental value. The welfare cost of speculation (relative to rational behavior) depends crucially on parameter values. Speculation can improve welfare if actual risk aversion is low and agents underinvest relative to the socially-optimal level. But for higher levels of risk aversion, the welfare cost of speculation is large, typically exceeding one percent of per-period consumption.


US Census Bureau Working Paper Slides: "Exploring the Veteran-Nonveteran Earnings Differential in the 2005 American Community Survey," by Kelly A. Holder (Presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, New York, NY, August 12, 2007, .pdf format, 26 slides).


US Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies. Note: Links to abstracts and full text for all can be found at the site listed below.

A. "Entry, Exit, and Plant-Level Dynamics over the Business Cycle," by Yoonsoo Lee and Toshihiko Mukoyama (CES-WP-08-17, June 2008, .pdf format, 53p.)..

B. "How Does Venture Capital Financing Improve Efficiency in Private Firms? A Look Beneath the Surface," by Thomas Chemmanur, Karthik Krishnan, and Debarshi Nandy (CES-WP-08-16, June 2008, .pdf format, 60p.).

C. "You Can Take it With You: Proposition 13 Tax Benefits, Residential Mobility, and Willingness to Pay for Housing Amenities," by Fernando Ferreira (CES-WP-08-15, June 2008, .pdf format, 32p.).

D. "Market Forces, Plant Technology, and the Food Safety Technology Use," by Michael Ollinger and Danna Moore (CES-WP-08-14, June 2008, .pdf format, 24p.).


US Bureau of Economic Analysis: "Metropolitan Area Disposable Personal Income: Methodology and Results for 2001-2004," by Ann E. Dunbar (WP2008-02, June 2008, .pdf format, 20p.).


The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes annual estimates of state disposable personal income, the difference between state personal income and state personal current taxes. BEA also publishes annual estimates of personal income for sub-state areas, but BEA does not publish corresponding estimates of disposable personal income (DPI) due to the absence of estimates of taxes. This paper uses the methodology presented in an earlier working paper to revise and update the estimates of disposable personal income for the current 363 metropolitan statistical areas for 2001-2004.

Related tables (.xls format):


Social Science Research Institute [University of Wisconsin-Madison]: "Pattern Formation, Spatial Externalities and Regulation in Coupled Economic-Ecological Systems," by William A. Brock and Anastasios Xepapadeas (2008-02, May 2008, .pdf format, 51p.).


National Bureau of Economic Research: NBER has released the following working papers for the week of Jun. 15-Jun. 21, 2008:

New papers are: 14080-14119


International Monetary Fund: IMF has added the following working papers. The papers are Nos. 08/150-08/152.


World Bank Policy Research Programme: PRP has recently released new working papers. See the list at:

New papers are: 4649-4654.


Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]: IZA has recently released several new working papers.

The new working papers are: 3551-3559.


Center for Economic Studies/Ifo Institute for Economic Research (CESifo) [Munich, Bavaria, Germany]: CESifo has recently released several new working papers:

and "Browse Working Paper List" for 2008.

The new papers are numbered 2331-2336.


Bank for International Settlements: "Implementing monetary policy in the 2000s: operating procedures in Asia and beyond," by Corrinne Ho (Working Papers No. 253, June 2008, .pdf format, 51p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:


Bank of Canada/Banque Du Canada: "The Effect of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act on CEO Pay for Luck," by Teodora Paligorova (Working Paper 2008-20, June 2008, .pdf format, 47p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:


Croatian National Bank: "International Business Cycles with Frictions in Goods and Factors Markets," by Ivo Krznar (W-18, June 2008, .pdf format, 37p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:


Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland: "Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland," by Antonello D'agostino, Kieran McQuinn and Gerard O' Reilly (3/RT/08, June 2008, .pdf format, p.).


While increased attention has, of late, focussed on models of house prices, few, if any, studies have examined house prices from a purely forecasting perspective. However, the need for accurate and timely forecasts of house prices has grown as the rate of house price inflation is more and more important to policy discussions such as those governing decisions on inflation. This is further underscored with the development of financial markets products based on house price index. In this paper, we propose that a simple univariate moving average (MA) model can provide optimal forecasts of Irish house price inflation when compared with a suite of standard forecasting and structural house price models. This result echoes similar recent findings for forecasts of US inflation rate.


New Zealand Treasury/Kaitohutohu Kaupapa Rawa: "Roles of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," by Felicity C. Barker, Robert A Buckle and Robert W. St. Clair (WP 08-02, June 2008, .pdf format, 53p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:


State Bank of Pakistan: "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," by S. Adnan, H.A.S. Bukhari, and Safdar Ullah Khan (Working Paper No. 24, June 2008, .pdf format, 31p.).


The objective of this study is to estimate potential output vis-ŕ-vis output gap for Pakistan’s economy. This paper reviews six commonly used techniques to estimate potential output and from that the output gap. The results suggest that while measures of output gap are not identical they nonetheless do show some degree of association among each other. Therefore, a composite output gap is calculated for 1950 to 2007. The composite output gap depicts that Pakistan economy has been observing a cyclical episode of periods of excess supply followed by excess demand in the period of analysis. Furthermore, evidence suggests that Pakistan economy is currently experiencing rising demand pressures since FY05. These demand pressures show a high degree of correlation with the rising inflation as shown in the temporal correlation between inflation and composite of output gap measures.


National Bank of Poland: "A Single Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area: Vision or Utopia?" by Conrad Szelag (Working Paper No. 46, June 2008, .pdf format, 56p.).


EMU has a unique macroeconomic framework that combines a single monetary policy with coordinated national economic and fiscal policies. Since the coordination process has some serious weaknesses despite having been modified several times in recent years, the idea of a single economic/fiscal policy is being discussed as a potential alternative solution for the euro area. On the one hand, there are reasonable economic arguments in favor of a single fiscal policy, such as the need to formulate an aggregate fiscal stance for the euro area as a whole, the need to ensure sustainable macroeconomic stabilization within EMU, and the need for a kind of insurance against asymmetric shocks. On the other hand, establishing the context for a single fiscal policy would require significant changes to the present political, institutional, and macroeconomic design of the EU. Such a context could include full political union with a federal structure, and federal institutions, including an economic government or central fiscal authority for the euro area, with a much larger and restructured general budget at the EU level, and possible abandonment of the rule that the budget must be in balance every year. Currently, neither the political will nor the social support exists in the EU for transferring further national authority to a supranational, European level. Therefore, while it may be desirable, a single fiscal policy in the euro area can only be considered for the long run; it is not an option for the short or medium term.

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

American Journal of Agricultural Economics (Vol. 90, No. 3, August 2008).

Annals of Statistics (Vol. 36, No. 3, June 2008).

Biometrika (Vol. 95, No. 2, June 2008).

Canadian Journal of Economics (Vol. 41, No. 2, May 2008). Note: Full text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for availability of this database and issue.

Economic Journal (Vol. 118, No. 530, July 2008).

Economica (Vol. 75, No. 298, May 2008).

Economics Letters (Vol. 100, No. 2, August 2008).

Industrial Relations Journal (Vol. 39, No. 4, July 2008).

International Economic Review (Vol. 49, No. 2, May 2008).

International Journal of Game Theory (Vol. 37, No. 2, June 2008).

Journal of Industrial Economics (Vol. 56, No. 1, March 2008).

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics In Society): Vol. 171, Pt. 3, 2008; Series B (Statistical Methodology), Vol. 70, Pt. 3, 2008; Series C: (Applied Statistics): Vol. 57, Pt. 3, 2008.

Oxford Economic Papers (Vol. 60, No. 3, July 2008). Note: Full text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for availability of this database and issue.

Review of Financial Economics (Vol. 17, No. 3, August 2008).

Scandinavian Journal of Economics (Vol. 110, No. 1, March 2008).

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EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES: AgeWork has updated its employment page with listings through Jun. 23, 2008.


American Statistical Association: ASA has updated its employment page with listings through Jun. 23, 2008.


Chronicle of Higher Education:

Economic positions has been updated through Jun. 24, 2008.

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Luxembourg Income Study: LIS has recently announced the release of data for Taiwan 2005 (June 2008).

LIS also announced revisions to the 1997 and 2000 Taiwan data files:

Data Access:

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