Current Social Science Research Report--Economics #9, April 3, 2007.

CSSRR-Economics is a weekly email report produced by the Data and Information Services Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. It seeks to help social science researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


CSSRR-Economics is compiled and edited by Jack Solock and Charlie Fiss.


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Index to this issue:
















1. Census Bureau Report: "The Effects of Taxes and Transfers on Income and Poverty in the United States: 2005" (Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, P60-232, March 2007, .pdf format, 24p.).

2. Bureau of Labor Statistics Periodical: Compensation and Working Conditions Online. Note: The latest articles are dated Mar. 28, 2007.

3. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (Massachusetts) Periodical: New England Economic Indicators /em> (March 2007, .pdf format, 29p.).

Note: this is a temporary address. When the next NEEM is released, this one, along with all others back to 2003, will be available at:

4. Congressional Budget Office Report: "Labor Productivity: Developments since 1995" (March 2007, .pdf format, 20p.)

5. US Government Economic Releases from the National Bureau of Economic Research: Links to releases for Mar. 27-Apr. 3, 2007 are available at the site.

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US States:

Illinois: Local Area Unemployment Statistics: Annual LAUS are available by county for 1990-2006.

Click on "click here to access" for "local area unemployment statistics (LAUS) time series: 1990-2006." A pop up window will appear with the first alphabetic county (Boone). Click on any county for data on that county.


State Data Center Data Update: The SDC has updated the following data (.pdf and Microsoft Excel format): for Iowa counties: (US Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Fact Sheets (BEARFACTS) 1994 to 2004:

North Dakota:

State Data Center Report: "2006 Wage Comparability Study: North Dakota Head Start and Early Head Start," by Ramona Danielson (March 2007, .pdf format, 19p.).

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NGOs and Other Countries

European Commission:

Eurostat Periodicals:

A. Statistics in Focus by Bernard Felix (36/2007, .pdf format, 8p.) The focus of this issue is "Venture capital investments.",46587259&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_product_code=KS-SF-07-036

B. Statistics in Focus> (2007/37 .pdf format, 8p.) The focus of this issue is: "High-Tech Enterprises,",46587259&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_product_code=KS-SF-07-037

C. Statistics in Focus (38/2007, .pdf format, 8p.). The focus of this issue is EU Agricultural Income +3.8% (real terms) in 20.",46587259&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_product_code=KS-SF-07-038

D. Statistics in Focus (39/2007, .pdf format, 8p.). The focus of this issue is "R&D in enterprises".,46587259&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_product_code=KS-SF-07-039

E. Statistics in Focus (40/2007, .pdf format, 8p.). The focus of this issue is "Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices February 2007".,46587259&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_product_code=KS-SF-07-040


International Monetary Fund Country Reports: The latest Country Reports span the time period from Mar. 28-Apr. 3, 2007 (Nos. 07/132-07/137).



Instituto Brasiliero de Geographie e Estatistica (IBGE) News Release: "IBGE releases new series of the System of National Accounts" (Mar. 21, 2007).

The news release links to "Sistema de Contas Nacionais Brasil 2000-2005" (Contas Nacionais numero 19, March 2007, .pdf format, 77p., with tables in .pdf and .zip compressed Microsoft Excel format). The full report and tables are available in Portuguese.


Czech Republic:

Czech Statistical Office Report: "The Czech Economy Development in 2006" (March 2007, .pdf format 12p., with tables in .pdf and Microsoft Excel format).



Central Statistics Office/An Phriomh-Oifig Staidrimh Report: "Fishery Statistics 2003 and 2004" (March 2007, .pdf format, 13p.).



Statistics Netherlands Press Releases, Web Magazine Articles:

A. "Central government surplus 3.0 billion euro" (4 billion US dollars) (press release, Mar. 30, 2007, HTML and .pdf format, 2p.).

B. "Job vacancies up slightly" (press release, Mar. 27, 2007, HTML and .pdf format, 1p.).

C. "Wage tax puts extra billions into government coffers" (Web Magazine, Mar. 27, 2007).

D. "Banks increase income from interest," by Bram de Boo and Frederik Heinsius (Web Magazine, Mar. 27, 2007).

E. "One million households receive rent rebate," by Hans Kasperski and Peter Meuwissen (Web Magazine, Mar. 27, 2007).



Statistics Norway News Release: "Accounts statistics. Annual reports for non-financial limited companies, 2005: Highest profit in 10 years" (Mar. 28, 2007). The news release links to two topical tables.



Central Statistical Office Report: "Registered Unemployment (I-IV quarter 2006)" (March 2007, .pdf format, 113p.).



Infoline Report: "Main Aggregates of General Government - Preliminary Estimates - 2005 (HTML and Microsoft Excel format).



Statistical Office Report: "2006 Household Budget Survey" (No. 72, Year LVII, March 2007, .pdf format, 8p.).



Statistical Office News Releases:

A. "Main aggregates of the general government, Slovenia, 2003-2006," by Andrej Flajs (Mar. 30, 2007).

B. "Livestock number, Slovenia, 2006," by Ales Stele (Mar. 30, 2007). The news release links to relevant data in the SI-STAT database.


South Africa:

Statistics South Africa Reports:

A. "P0044 - Quarterly financial statistics, December 2006" (March 2007, .pdf format, 22p.).

B. "Quarterly financial statistics of municipalities December 2006" (March 2007, .pdf format, 13p.)


Sri Lanka:

Department of Census and Statistics Report: "National Accounts: Annual Reports 2006" (March 2007, .pdf format, 19p.).



Statistics Sweden News Releases:

A. "Strongly improved public finances in the Swedish economy in 2006" (Mar. 30, 2007).

B. "A. "Only 15 percent employed in evenly distributed occupations" (Mar. 28, 2007).



Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs Compendia:

A. Agriculture in the United Kingdom: 2006 (March 2007, .pdf format, 132p., with tables and charts in Microsoft Excel format).

B. UK agricultural Statistics in your Pocket 2006 (March 2007, .pdf format, 62p.).

Click on "PDF format" near the bottom of the page for link to full text.

National Statistics Office First Release: "Regional household income" (March 2007, .pdf format, 11p.).

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Population Reference Bureau Article: "Closing the Male-Female Labor Force Gap," by Mark Mather (March 2007).


Urban Institute Brief: "State Individual Income Tax Progressivity," by Carol Rosenberg (March 2007, .pdf format, 1p.).


European Central Bank Occasional Paper: "Long-term growth prospects for the Russian economy," by Roland Beck, Annette Kamps and Elitza Mileva (Occasional Paper No. 58, March 2007, .pdf format, 32p.).


This paper provides an assessment of Russia’s long-term growth prospects. In particular, it addresses the question of the medium- and long-term sustainability of the country’s currently high growth rates. Starting from the notion that Russia’s fast economic expansion in recent years has benefited from a number of singular factors such as the unprecedented rise in oil prices, the paper presents new evidence on Russia’s oil price dependency using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. The findings indicate that the positive impact of rising oil prices on Russia’s GDP growth has increased in recent years, but tends to be buffered by an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate which is stimulating imports. Additionally, there is empirical confirmation that growth in the service sector - a symptom usually associated with the Dutch disease phenomenon - is mainly a result of the transition process. Finally, the paper provides an overview of the relevant factors that are likely to affect Russia’s growth performance in the future.

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Federal Reserve Banks:

Federal Reserve Board: "Natural Rate Measures in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy," by Rochelle M. Edge, Michael T. Kiley, and Jean-Philippe Laforte (Working Paper 2007-8, March 2007, HTML and .pdf format, 27p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (Ohio):

A. "Harming Depositors and Helping Borrowers: The Disparate Impact of Bank Consolidation," by Kwangwoo Park and George Pennacchi (WP07-04, March 2007, .pdf format, 46p.).


A model of multimarket spatial competition is developed where small, single-market banks compete with large, multimarket banks (LMBs) for retail loans and deposits. Consistent with empirical evidence, LMBs are assumed to have different operating costs, set retail interest rates that are uniform across markets, and have access to wholesale funding. If LMBs have significant funding advantages that offset any loan operating cost disadvantages, then market-extension mergers by LMBs promote loan competition, especially in concentrated markets. However, such mergers reduce retail deposit competition, especially in less concentrated markets. Prior empirical research and our own analysis of retail deposit rates support the model's predictions.

B. "Limited Liability and the Development of Capital Markets," by Ed Nosal and Michael Smart (WP07-03, March 2007, .pdf format, 31p.).

We study the consequences of the introduction of widespread limited liability for corporations. In the traditional view, limited liability reduces transactions costs and enhances investment incentives for individuals and firms. But this view does not explain several important stylized facts of the British experience, including the slow rate of adoption of limited liability by firms in the years following legal reforms. We construct an alternative model that accounts for this and other features of the nineteenth century British experience. In the model, project risk is private information, and a firm's decision to adopt limited liability may be interpreted in equilibrium as a signal the firm is more likely to default. Hence less risky firms may choose unlimited liability or forego investments entirely. We show the choice of liability rule can lead to "development traps," in which profitable investments are not undertaken, through its effect on equilibrium beliefs of uninformed investors in the economy.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Pennsylvania):

A. "The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," by Gerald Carlino, Robert DeFina, and Keith Sill (Working Paper No. 07-11, March 2007, .pdf format, 31p.).


This study documents a general decline in the volatility of employment growth during the period 1960 to 2002 and examines its possible sources. A unique aspect of the analysis is the use of state-level panel data. Estimates from a pooled cross-section/time-series model indicate that aggregate and state-level factors each explain an important share of the total variation in state-level volatility. Specifically, state-level factors have contributed as much as 29 percent, while aggregate factors are found to account for up to 45 percent of the variation. With regard to state-level factors, the share of state total employment in manufacturing and state banking deregulation each contributed significantly to fluctuations in volatility. Among the aggregate factors separately identified, monetary policy, changes in the inventory-to-sales ratio, changes in the ratio of total trade to GDP, and oil prices significantly affected state-level volatility, although to differing degrees.

B. "Bankruptcy: Is It Enough to Forgive or Must We Also Forget?" by Ronel Elul and Piero Gottardi (Working Paper No. 07-10, March 2007, .pdf format, 55p.).


In many countries, lenders are not permitted to use information about past defaults after a specified period of time has elapsed. The authors model this provision and determine conditions under which it is optimal.

They develop a model in which entrepreneurs must repeatedly seek external funds to finance a sequence of risky projects under conditions of both adverse selection and moral hazard. They show that forgetting a default makes incentives worse, ex-ante, because it reduces the punishment for failure. However, following a default it is generally good to forget, because pooling riskier agents with safer ones makes exerting high effort to preserve their reputation more attractive.

The authors' key result is that if agents are sufficiently patient, and low effort is not too inefficient, then the optimal law would prescribe some amount of forgetting --- that is, it would not permit lenders to fully utilize past information. The authors also show that such a law must be enforced by the government - no lender would willingly agree to forget. Finally, they also use their model to examine the policy debate that arose during the adoption of these rules.

C. "Competitive Effects of Basel II on U.S. Bank Credit Card Lending," by William W. Lang, Loretta J. Mester, and Todd A. Vermilyea (Working Paper No. 07-09, March 2007, .pdf format, 57p.).


The authors analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed Basel II capital regulations on U.S. bank credit card lending. They find that bank issuers operating under Basel II will face higher regulatory capital minimums than Basel I banks, with differences due to the way the two regulations treat reserves and gain-on-sale of securitized assets. During periods of normal economic conditions, this is not likely to have a competitive effect; however, during periods of substantial stress in credit card portfolios, Basel II banks could face a significant competitive disadvantage relative to Basel I banks and nonbank issuers.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri): "Resolving the Unbiasedness and Forward Premium Puzzles," by Daniel L. Thornton (WP2007-14A, March 2007, .pdf format, 43p.). Links to an abstract and full-text can be found at:


US Bureau of Labor Statistics:

A. "The Strength of Occupation Indicators as a Proxy for Skill," by Alec Levenson and Cindy Zoghi (Working Paper No. 404, March 2007, .pdf format, 38p.). Note: Links to an abstract and full text can be found at:

B. "Establishment Wage Differentials," by Julia I. Lane, Laurie A. Salmon, and James R. Spletzer (Working Paper No. 403, March 2007, .pdf format, 27p.). Note: Links to an abstract and full text can be found at:


Brookings Institution: "Nigeria's Economic Reforms: Progress and Challenges," by Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Philip Osafo-Kwaako (March 2007, .pdf format, 28p.). Links to an abstract and full text can be found at:


Stanford University Graduate School of Business: "Ability and Employer Learning: Evidence from the Economist Labor Market," by Paul Oyer (WP 1961, March 2007, .pdf format, 27p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:


MDRC: "Subsidized Housing and Employment : Building Evidence About What Works to Improve Self-Sufficiency," by James A. Riccio (March 2007, .pdf format, 42p.). Links to an abstract and full text can be found at:


European Central Bank: "The Eurosystem, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan: similarities and differences," by Dieter Gerdesmeier, Francesco Paolo Mongelli and Barbara Roffia (Working Paper No. 742, March 2007, .pdf format, 45p.).


The paper provides a systematic comparison of the Eurosystem, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. These monetary authorities exhibit somewhat different status and tasks, which reflect different historical conditions and national characteristics. However, widespread changes in central banking practices in the direction of greater independence and increased transparency, as well as changes in the economic and financial environment over the past 15-20 years, have contributed to reduce the differences among these three world’s principal monetary authorities. A comparison based on simple "over-the-counter" policy reaction functions shows no striking differences in terms of monetary policy implementation.


UK Department for Work and Pensions:

A. "Experience of work and job retention among lone parents: An evidence review," by Alasdair Yeo (WP 37, March 2007, .pdf format, 54p.).


This paper explores lone parents' experiences of work and job retention. Improving job retention rates is seen as an important element in meeting the Government's target of a 70 per cent employment rate for lone parents by 2010. A better understanding of the issue of job retention was developed by reviewing the content and evaluations of the New Deal for Lone Parents (NDLP), Work Focused Interviews (WFIs) and other related DWP and non-DWP reports. The factors influencing lone parents leaving work and conversely, the factors associated with lone parents staying in-work, are explored. The current policies and pilots aimed at improving job retention for lone parents in the UK are examined; international policies are also scrutinised, enabling cross-national comparisons to be drawn. This analysis informed the development of a framework to understand types of policy initiatives. This framework is then used to analyse the UK's policies and pilots with regard to job retention and to develop further proposals.

B. "Impacts of rents on Housing Benefit and work incentives," by Angelina Cannizzaro (WP 38, March 2007, .pdf format, 12p.).


The links between high rents and work incentives has been the focus of many discussions. The common perception is that high rents must impact negatively on a Housing Benefit (HB) claimant's decision to enter work. However, there are many factors that influence whether or not the level of rent impacts on work incentives, and one of these is the job move an individual may be contemplating. This report seeks to highlight the different issues at play when considering the links between rents and work incentives and takes a more detailed look at the theoretical impact HB could have. One of the main conclusions of the report is that high rents do not impact on an HB claimant's financial incentive to move into work. This is because the cash gain to work, where claimants qualify for in-work HB, is unaffected by high rents


Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) [University of Essex, UK]: "On-The-Job Search And Job Competition: Relevance And Wage Impact In The UK," by Simonetta Longhi (ISER Working Paper 2007-6, March 2007, .pdf format, 19p.).


In the literature job competition is often measured by the unemployment rate. By neglecting on-the-job search, however, the unemployment rate is likely to be a biased measure of job competition: various studies have suggested that on-the-job search varies over time and across groups of people, and might have a relevant impact on the outflow from unemployment. In the UK on-the-job search is a relevant phenomenon: around half of people who are actively looking for a job are employed. This paper estimates the direct impact of job competition on individual wages in the UK using data from the quarterly Labour Force Survey over the period 1993-2005. Measures of job competition based only on the unemployment rate are compared to measures that account for on-the-job search as well as inter-regional commuting. The results suggest that failing to correctly measure labour supply and demand leads to biased estimates of the wage impact of job competition, and that estimations focusing on certain sub-groups of the population (e.g. graduates or women) might be affected by larges biases.


International Monetary Fund: IMF has added several working papers on. The papers are Nos. 07/68-07/74.


World Bank Development Programme: WDP has recently released several new working papers. See the list at:

New Papers are: 4184-4188


Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]: IZA has recently released several new working papers.

The new working papers are: 2705-2724


Center for Economic Studies/Ifo Institute for Economic Research (CESifo) [Munich, Bavaria, Germany]: CESifo has recently released several new working papers:

and "Browse Working Paper List" for 2007.

The new papers are numbered 1947-1959


AgEcon Search: This week's new working papers from AgEcon Search at the University of Minnesota are available at:

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

Economics Letters (Vol. 95, No. 1, April 2007).

Industrial & Labor Relations Review (Vol. 60, No. 3, April 2007). Note: Full text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for availability of this database and issue.

Journal of Development Economics (Vol. 83, No. 2, July 2007).

Journal of Econometrics (Vol. 138, No. 1, May 2007).

Journal of Economic Literature (Vol 45, No. 1, March 2007).

Journal of Financial Economics (Vol. 84, No. 1, April 2007).

Journal of Human Resources (Vol. 42, No. 2, Spring 2007). Note: Full text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for availability of this database and issue.

Journal of International Economics (Vol. 71, No. 2, April 2007).

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series B, Vol. 69, Pt. 2, 2007; Series C, Vol. 56, Pt. 2, 2007).

Review of Financial Economics (Vol. 16, No. 2, 2007).

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US House Committee on Education and Labor Hearing Testimony: "How Effective are Existing Programs in Helping Workers Impacted by International Trade?" a hearing held Mar. 26, 2007 (.pdf format).


US Senate Appropriations Committee Hearing Publication: "Potential Effects of a Flat Federal Income Tax in the District of Columbia," a special hearing held Mar. 30, 2006 (.pdf format, 82p.).

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US Department of Housing and Urban Development:

A. "FY (Fiscal Year) 2007 Income Limits" (HTML, .pdf, Microsoft Word, and Microsoft Excel format).

B. ""Low-Income Housing Tax Credits" (Revision, February 2007, Dbase format, with documentation in .pdf format).


US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri) Archival Federal Reserve Economic Data (ALFRED) Updates: "Vintage data have been added for 7 series on the Gross Domestic Product release. The earliest vintage date added is 1965-08-19."


Irish Social Science Data Archive. ISSA has recently released two data files:

A. "1987 Household Budget Survey (HBS)," (March 2007, ASCII text documentation). Note: A request form is required for data access.

B. "1995 Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC)," (March 2007, .pdf format documentation). Note: A request form is required for data access.

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Panel Survey of Income Dynamics Bibliography Update: The following items have been added to the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research PSID Bibliography. The entire bibliography can be searched or browsed by author or keyword.

Carter, Vernon B. and Marx, Jerry. What Motivates African-American Charitable Giving: Findings From A National Sample. Administration in Social Work. 2007; 31(1):67-85.

Dixon-Roman, Ezekiel J. The Mystery of Inequity: Modeling the Influence of Intergenerational Access on Intellective Competence. Evanston, IL: Northwestern University; 2007.

Du, Rex Yuxing. Essays on Customer Valuation. North Carolina: Duke University; 2006

Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Oaxaca, Ronald L., and Smith, Nina. Swimming Upstream, Floating Downstream: Comparing Women's Relative Wage Progress in the United States and Denmark. Industrial and Labor Relations Review. 2006; 59(2):243-266.

Holst, Roland. Social Security and Policy Risk: Evidence, Welfare Costs, and Effects on Wealth Accumulation. Illinois: University of Chicago; 2006.

Lin, Chang-Ching. Three Essays in Econometrics. Michigan: University of Michigan; 2006. 154 pp.

Moorman, Diann Carol Vennick. Consumer Bankruptcy: Are Allegations of Abuse Well Founded?. Iowa: Iowa State University; 2006. 137 pp

Yamaguchi, Shintaro. Three Essays in Labor Economics. Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin - Madison; 2006.

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