Current Social Science Research Report--Economics #98, February 3, 2009.

CSSRR-Economics is a weekly email report produced by the Data and Information Services Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. It seeks to help social science researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. This report will contain selected listings of new: reports, articles, bibliographies, working papers, tables of contents, conferences, data, and websites. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:


CSSRR-Economics is compiled and edited by Jack Solock and Charlie Fiss.


To CSSRR-Soc #98

To CSSRR-Health #98



Index to this issue:


















1. Bureau of Labor Statistics Press Releases, Periodical:

A. "Union Members in 2008," (Jan. 28, 2009, HTML and .pdf format, 12p.).

B. "Employment Experience of Youths: Results from a Longitudinal Survey) (Jan. 23, 2009, HTML and .pdf format, 14p.).

C. "Changes to procedures for producing Current Employment Statistics (CES) State estimates" (Jan. 26, 2009).

D. Compensation and Working Conditions Online (January 2009). Note: The most recent articles are dated Jan. 27, 2009.

2. Department of Housing and Urban Development Periodical: U.S. Housing Market Conditions (3rd Quarter 2008, .pdf format, 86p.).

3. Federal Register Notice: "Annual Update of the HHS Poverty Guidelines (Department of Health and Human Services, Vol. 74, No. 14, Jan. 23, 2009, .pdf format, p. 4199-4201).

4. Government Accountability Office Report: "Troubled Asset Relief Program: Status of Efforts to Address Transparency and Accountability Issues" (GAO-09-296, January 2009, .pdf format, 105p.).

5. US Government Economic Releases from the National Bureau of Economic Research: Links to releases for Jan. 28-Feb. 3, 2009 are available at the site.

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US States:


Department of Labor and Workforce Development Periodical

B. Alaska Economic Trends (January 2009, .pdf format, 27p.). The topic of this month's issue is: "Employment Forecast for 2009."


Stats Indiana Updates: The following data has been updated at Stats Indiana:

A. "Consumer Confidence Index, Dec 2008, 2008 annual"

B. "Labor Force Estimates (Indiana counties, metros, cities), Dec 2008"

C. "CES Indiana and MSAs (Employment by Industry), Dec 2008"

D. "CES and LAUS 50 States (Employment by Industry and Unemployment)"

See links under "Just Released" on the right side of the page.


State Data Center Report: "New Housing Units Authorized For Construction: 2008 Fourth Quarter Reports" (January 2009, Microsoft Excel format).

North Dakota:

State Data Center Periodical: Economic Brief (Vol. 18, No. 1, January 2009, .pdf format, 3p.). The topic of this issue is: "Multiple Jobholders in North Dakota: 1994 to 2007."

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NGOs and Other Countries:

United Nations:

World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe Report: "Addressing the socioeconomic safety divide: a policy briefing," by Lucie Laflamme, Dinesh Sethi, Stephanie Burrows, Marie Hasselberg, Francesca Racioppi and Franklin Apfel (2009, .pdf format, 26p.).


International Labour Organization Report: "Global Employment Trends Report 2009," (January 2009, .pdf format, 54p.).


International Monetary Fund Country Reports: The latest Country Reports (.pdf format) span the time period from Jan. 28, 2008-Feb. 3, 2009 (No. 09-19, 09-25, 09-27--09-38).


World Bank Periodical: World Bank Research Digest (Vol. 3, No. 2, Winter 2009, .pdf format, 8p.).,,contentMDK:21008317~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:469372,00.html

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American Enterprise Institute Reports:

A. "Promoting and Using Comparative Research: What Are the Promises and Pitfalls of a New Federal Effort?" by Scott Gottlieb (Health Policy Outlook, No. 2, February 2009, .pdf and HTML format, 8p.).

B. "IMPACT's Impact," by Roger Bate and Karen Porter (Health Policy Outlook, No. 1, February 2009, .pdf and HTML format, 8p.).


Center for Health and Wellbeing, Princeton University Lecture: "Instruments of development: Randomization in the tropics, and the search for the elusive keys to economic development," by Angus Deaton (The Keynes Lecture, British Academy, Oct. 9th, 2008, .pdf format, 54p.).


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Missouri) Periodical: Liber8 (February 2009, .pdf format, 2p.). The topic of this issue is "What is a Recession?"


Preceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Article Abstract: "Recordkeeping alters economic history by promoting reciprocity," by Sudipta Basu, John Dickhau, Gary Hecht, Kristy Towry, and Gregory Waymirec (Vol. 106, No. 4, Jan. 27, 2009, p. 1009-1014).

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District 2: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York):

NEW: Staff Report No. 361 "Global Liquidity and Exchange Rates," by Tobias Adrian, Erkko Etula, and Hyun Song Shin.


District 9: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (Minnesota):

NEW: Working Paper No. 668 "Economies of Density versus Natural Advantage: Crop Choice on the Back Forty," by Thomas J. Holmes and Sanghoon Lee.


District 10: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (Missouri):

NEW: RWP 09-3 "On-the-Job Search, Sticky Prices, and Persistence," by Willem Van Zandweghe.


District 12: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (California):


09-02 "EAD Calibration for Corporate Credit Lines," by Gabriel Jimenez, Jose A. Lopez, and Jesus Saurina.

09-01 "Sources of the Great Moderation: Shocks, Friction, or Monetary Policy?" by Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha.


US Bureau of Economic Analysis: "Terms of Trade Effects: Theory and Methods of Measurement," by Marshall Reinsdorf (WP2009-01, January 2009, .pdf format, 37p.).


Changes in export and import prices that increase the opportunity for trading gains raise real income, and changes in these prices that reduce trading gains reduce real income. Even though trade is less important for the US economy than it is for many other economies, trading gains have a median absolute effect on US real GDI of 0.2 percentage points in annual data. The petroleum price shocks that occurred in late 1973 and in 1980 subtracted more than a full percentage point from the annual growth of real GDI, and in the first half of 2008 price increases in petroleum and other imported commodities subtracted 2 percentage points from the annual rate of growth of real GDI, making it negative despite the steady growth of real GDP. On the other hand, when petroleum prices are excluded, we find that US terms of trade have improved steadily since 1996. Combined with the contribution from a falling relative price of tradables excluding petroleum, these terms of trade improvements have increased the growth rate of US real GDI by an average of 0.15 percentage points. On a cumulative basis over the past 11 years, therefore, these effects have increased real GDI by over 1.7 percent.


National Bureau of Economic Research: NBER has released the following working papers for the week of Jan. 25-31, 2009:

New papers are: 14678-14698.


Harvard Business School:

A. "Global Currency Hedging," by John Y. Campbell, Karine Serfaty-de Medeiros, and Luis M. Viceira (No. 09-089, January 2009, .pdf format, 116p.).


Over the period 1975 to 2005, the US dollar (particularly in relation to the Canadian dollar) and the euro and Swiss franc (particularly in the second half of the period) have moved against world equity markets. Thus these currencies should be attractive to risk-minimizing global equity investors despite their low average returns. The risk-minimizing currency strategy for a global bond investor is close to a full currency hedge, with a modest long position in the US dollar. There is little evidence that risk-minimizing investors should adjust their currency positions in response to movements in interest differentials.

B. "The Bloody Millennium: Internal Conflict in South Asia," by Lakshmi Iyer (No. 09-086, January 2009, .pdf format, 43p.).


This paper documents the short-term and long-term trends in internal conflict in South Asian countries, using multiple data sources. I find that incidents of terrorism have been rising across South Asia over the past decade, and this increase has been concentrated in economically lagging regions in the post-2001 period. This is in contrast to both the historical patterns of conflict, and the evolution of other types of violence. Analyzing the role of economic, geographic and demographic factors, I find that poorer areas have significantly higher levels of conflict intensity. The paper reviews the various approaches taken by governments to deal with conflict, contrasting security-based approaches with political accommodation and economic approaches. Finally, the paper reviews the potential role of regional cooperation in mitigating conflict.


John F. Kennedy School of Government [Harvard University]: "Environmental Effects of International Trade," by Jeffrey Frankel (Working Paper No, RWP09-006, January 2009, .pdf format, 61p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:


Levy Economics Institute of Bard College [Annandale-on-Hudson, NY]:

A. "Long-Term Trends in the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being (LIMEW), United States, 1959-2004," by Edward N. Wolff, Ajit Zacharias, and Thomas Masterson (Working Paper No. 556, January 2009, .pdf format, 117p.). Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

B. "Financial Stability: The Significance and Distinctiveness of Islamic Banking in Malaysia," by Ewa Karwowski (Working Paper No. 555, January 2009, .pdf format, 55p.). Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:

C. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in the United States and Their Impact on the International Financial System," by Julia S. Perelstein (Working Paper No. 554, January 2009, .pdf format, 55p.). Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:


International Monetary Fund: IMF has recently added several new working papers. The papers are No. 09/14--09/15, 09-17--09-21).


Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Economics Department (.pdf format).


NO. 661: "Making the most of Norwegian schools," by Romina Boarini

NO. 662: "Realising South Africa’s employment potential," by Geoff Barnard


World Bank Policy Research Programme:

New papers are WPS 4823-4832


Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) [University of Bonn, Germany]: IZA has recently released several new working papers.

The new working papers are: 3956-3980


Center for Economic Studies/Ifo Institute for Economic Research (CESifo) [Munich, Bavaria, Germany]: CESifo has recently released several new working papers:

and "Browse Working Paper List" for 2009.

The new papers are numbered 2527-2534


Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) [University of Essex, Colchester, UK: "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models -Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," by Andreas Peichl (WP 2009-02, January 2009, .pdf format, 33p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:


Institute for Financial Studies [London, UK]: "The economics of a temporary VAT cut," by Thomas F Crossley, Hamish Low and Matthew Wakefield (W09/02, January 2009, .pdf format, 20p.). Links to an abstract and full text are available at:

Link to full text is at the bottom of the abstract.


European Central Bank:

NEW: No. 995-1001


New Economic Papers (NEP)-ALL. The latest list of New Economic Papers (Jan. 24, 2009).


AgEcon Search: This week's new working papers from AgEcon Search at the University of Minnesota are available at:

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JOURNAL TABLES OF CONTENTS (check your library for availability):

Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'onomique (Vol. 42, No. 1, February 2009). Note: Full text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for availability of this database and issue.

Economic Journal (Vol. 119, No. 535, February 2009).

Economics Letters (Vol. 102, No. 2, February 2009).

European Economic Review (Vol. 53, No. 1, January 2009).

International Economic Review (Vol. 50, No. 1, February 2009).

Journal of Urban Economics (Vol. 65, No. 2, March 2009).

Review of Economics and Statistics (Vol. 91, No. 1, January 2009). Note: Full text of this journal is available in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for availability of this database and issue.

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World Bank Robert S. MacNamara Fellowships: "The Robert S. McNamara Fellowships Program provides support to young researchers working in academic and research institutions from eligible countries preparing a doctoral thesis. Research grants cover residence costs for a 5 to 10 month period in a renowned university or research center. Fellows are expected to advance their research work mainly by using the facilities and resources provided by the host institution and by interacting with peers." Application deadline is Feb. 28, 2009.

Fellowship information:,,contentMDK:21588587~menuPK:4502116~pagePK:64168445~piPK:64168309~theSitePK:551843,00.html


Click on "How to Apply" on the left side of the page.

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American Economic Association: AEA has updated it's conference announcement page with two new Conferences:

Prague Conference on Political Economy (Prague, Czech Republic--Apr. 24, 2009).

Economics Society of Australia (Adelaide, Australia--Sep. 28, 2009).

Southern Economic Association (San Antonio, Texas--Nov. 21, 2009).

Academy of Management (Chicago, Illinois--Aug. 7, 2009).

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American Economics Association: Job Openings for Economists: February 2009:


Chronicle of Higher Education:

Economics positions has been updated through Feb. 2, 2009.

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US House Committee on the Budget Hearing Testimony: "The Economic Outlook and Budget Challenges," a hearing held Jan. 27, 2009 (.pdf format).

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US Census Bureau 2007 Service Annual Summary Update: The following files were updated on Feb. 2, 2008 (.pdf and Microsoft Excel format).

A. "Rental and Leasing Services"

B. "Professional, Scientific and Technical Services"

C. "Other Services (Except Public Administration, Religious, Labor, and Political Organizations, and Private Households)"

D. "Arts, Entertainment, and Recreations Services"

E. "Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services"


UK Data Archive (Essex University, Colchester, UK): The UK Data Archive has recently added the following datasets to its holdings. Note: There maybe charges or licensing requirements on holdings of the UK Data Archive. For more information see:

For new data or new editions of new data in the last month:

and pick "1 month" for either.

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